Language:English
Ceará v Sport Recife
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ceará (Local)
Prediction 42.04%2.38fair odd
EV -5.41%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -4.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.28%42.08%42.02%43.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.172.162.2549.02%46.18%46.30%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sport Recife (Visit)
Prediction 28.52%3.51fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%28.42%28.53%29.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.223.253.3732.79%31.05%30.77%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.44%3.40fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -0.866%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.35%29.50%29.45%31.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.143.103.3035.09%31.85%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ceará (Local): 42.04%; Sport Recife (Visit): 28.52%; Draw: 29.44%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -2.86%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.14%EV -5.41%E -2.41%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.14%EV -3.87%E -1.15%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.72%EV -6.10%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 15:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.28%EV -5.83%E -2.60%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-03 15:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.28%EV -5.83%E -2.60%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-03 15:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.91%EV -6.67%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.28%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.82%EV -8.16%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-01 21:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-02 21:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.30%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -4.33%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 08:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.30%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-03 13:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.30%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-02 21:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -7.30%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -7.27%E -2.31%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-02 13:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.09%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.23%EV -6.44%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.68%EV -8.16%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-01 21:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-03 17:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.30%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-03 15:07 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.30%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-03 15:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 13:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-02 12:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.35%E -3.83%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.03%EV -10.15%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.03%EV -7.27%E -2.31%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-03 21:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.35%E -3.83%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-02 17:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.35%E -3.83%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-02 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-02 10:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-02 10:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-02 11:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-02 10:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-31 08:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-31 21:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 03:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-31 08:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-04 07:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-02 10:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-02 10:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.59%EV -10.15%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-02 18:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.56%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.36%EV -16.10%E -5.65%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-03 21:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.01%EV -10.88%E -5.13%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -11.72%E -5.58%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-31 21:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -12.56%E -6.04%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -10.15%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -7.27%E -2.31%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -12.98%E -6.27%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-02 10:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 42.94%EV -13.40%E -6.50%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 42.78%EV -14.24%E -6.98%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.00%E -4.26%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 42.78%EV -14.24%E -6.98%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.00%E -4.26%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-09-02 10:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 11:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 40.44% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.43% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.13% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 42.86% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 14.29% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 42.86% | 112.1% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 42.86% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 14.29% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 42.86% | 112.1% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 42.86% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 14.29% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 42.86% | 112.1% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |