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Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)
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Ceará v Sport Recife

Início: 2026-09-05 21:30 UTC

Final: Ceará 2–1 Sport Recife

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

44 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ceará (Local)

Previsão 42.04%2.38odd justa
EV -5.41%
Vantagem -2.41%
Kelly -4.33%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
41.28%42.08%42.02%43.31%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.042.172.162.2549.02%46.18%46.30%44.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sport Recife (Visitante)

Previsão 28.52%3.51odd justa
EV -3.87%
Vantagem -1.15%
Kelly -1.64%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.37

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.08%28.42%28.53%29.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.053.223.253.3732.79%31.05%30.77%29.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.44%3.40odd justa
EV -2.86%
Vantagem -0.866%
Kelly -1.24%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.35%29.50%29.45%31.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.853.143.103.3035.09%31.85%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Ceará (Local): 42.04%; Sport Recife (Visitante): 28.52%; Empate: 29.44%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.40. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.30, com valor esperado de -2.86%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (44 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.14%EV -5.41%E -2.41%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.14%EV -3.87%E -1.15%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.72%EV -6.10%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 15:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.28%EV -5.83%E -2.60%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.28%EV -5.83%E -2.60%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 15:09
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.91%EV -6.67%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.28%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.82%EV -8.16%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-01 21:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 21:30
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.30%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -4.33%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 08:24
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.30%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 13:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.30%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-02 21:30
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -7.30%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -7.27%E -2.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 13:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.09%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.23%EV -6.44%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.68%EV -8.16%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-01 21:50
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 17:09
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.30%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 15:07
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.30%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 15:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 13:20
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 12:40
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 12:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.51%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 12:39
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.35%E -3.83%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.03%EV -10.15%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.03%EV -7.27%E -2.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 21:30
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.35%E -3.83%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-02 17:55
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.35%E -3.83%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-02 17:55
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 11:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 10:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 11:00
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 10:59
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 11:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -9.20%E -4.26%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -2.86%E -0.866%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 10:59
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 08:30
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 21:35
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 03:24
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-31 08:20
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 07:55
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-02 10:09
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-02 10:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.59%EV -10.15%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-02 18:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.56%EV -9.62%E -4.47%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.36%EV -16.10%E -5.65%K -8.71%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-03 21:50
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.01%EV -10.88%E -5.13%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -8.72%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-02 11:00
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -11.72%E -5.58%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.84%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-31 21:49
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -12.56%E -6.04%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -10.15%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -7.27%E -2.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-02 11:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -12.98%E -6.27%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-02 10:59
TABtouch🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 42.94%EV -13.40%E -6.50%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-02 11:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 42.78%EV -14.24%E -6.98%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.00%E -4.26%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-02 11:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 42.78%EV -14.24%E -6.98%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.00%E -4.26%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-02 10:59
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%7.2%2026-09-04 11:25
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 40.44%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.43%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.13%11.4%2026-09-04 11:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 42.86%3.30I 30.30%NM 14.29%1.10I 90.91%NM 42.86%112.1%2026-09-04 13:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 42.86%3.30I 30.30%NM 14.29%1.10I 90.91%NM 42.86%112.1%2026-09-04 13:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 42.86%3.30I 30.30%NM 14.29%1.10I 90.91%NM 42.86%112.1%2026-09-04 13:20