The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ceará v Nautico PE

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ceará (Local)

Prediction 49.35%2.03fair odd
EV -5.73%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -6.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.09%49.43%49.23%51.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.851.851.9156.82%54.04%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nautico PE (Visit)

Prediction 21.86%4.58fair odd
EV +4.91%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.063%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.53%21.59%22.02%22.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.334.354.8026.67%23.08%22.99%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.79%3.47fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.10%28.98%28.75%30.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.203.203.3534.72%31.25%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ceará (Local): 49.35%; Nautico PE (Visit): 21.86%; Draw: 28.79%. For Nautico PE (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.58. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.91%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.54%EV -6.23%E -3.28%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.01%EV +4.91%E +1.02%K +1.29%G +0.063%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.46%EV -6.14%E -1.88%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 23:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.88%EV -9.19%E -4.99%K -10.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV +2.72%E +0.579%K +0.735%G +0.020%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -13.63%E -4.54%K -6.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 23:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.88%EV -9.19%E -4.99%K -10.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV +2.72%E +0.579%K +0.735%G +0.020%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -13.63%E -4.54%K -6.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 23:14
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.30%EV -9.19%E -4.99%K -10.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.52%EV +0.534%E +0.116%K +0.148%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -3.55%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 23:25
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV +0.534%E +0.116%K +0.148%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -3.55%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 23:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV +0.534%E +0.116%K +0.148%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -3.55%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 23:25
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV +0.534%E +0.116%K +0.148%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -3.55%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 23:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV +0.534%E +0.116%K +0.148%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -3.55%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 23:25
BetUS🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.01%EV -8.69%E -4.70%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.33%EV -0.559%E -0.123%K -0.157%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.65%EV -10.17%E -3.26%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 23:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -8.69%E -4.70%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -1.65%E -0.367%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 23:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -8.69%E -4.70%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -1.65%E -0.367%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 23:10
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.71%E -4.12%K -8.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -1.65%E -0.367%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 23:25
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.14%EV -8.20%E -4.41%K -9.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -1.65%E -0.367%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 23:25
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%EV -5.73%E -3.00%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -3.84%E -0.872%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 23:14
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -8.69%E -4.70%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -3.84%E -0.872%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 23:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.08%EV -11.66%E -6.51%K -14.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -3.84%E -0.872%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-11 23:25
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -10.18%E -5.59%K -12.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.15%EV -4.93%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 23:10
LeoVegas🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.16%EV -13.14%E -7.46%K -17.29%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.70%EV -4.93%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 23:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.16%EV -13.14%E -7.46%K -17.29%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.70%EV -4.93%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 23:25
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.68%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -5.37%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.75%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 23:25
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.48%EV -11.16%E -6.20%K -13.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -6.02%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 23:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.63%EV -12.15%E -6.83%K -15.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.21%EV -7.12%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.16%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 23:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.36%EV -7.21%E -3.84%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -8.21%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 23:13
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.09%EV -6.72%E -3.56%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -8.21%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.82%EV -7.29%E -2.27%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 23:13
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -7.21%E -3.84%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -8.21%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 23:10
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.23%EV -7.21%E -3.84%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.30%EV -9.30%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 23:15
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.23%EV -7.21%E -3.84%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.30%EV -9.30%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 23:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.14%EV -8.20%E -4.41%K -9.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.29%EV -10.39%E -2.54%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-11 23:15
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.73%E -3.00%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -12.58%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.75%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 23:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.73%E -3.00%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -12.58%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.75%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 23:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.73%E -3.00%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -12.58%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.75%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 23:10
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.73%E -3.00%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -12.58%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.75%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 23:10
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -7.21%E -3.84%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -12.58%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.75%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-11 23:10
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.92%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -12.58%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.70%EV -10.17%E -3.26%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-11 23:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.09%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.98%EV -18.04%E -4.81%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.92%EV -17.08%E -5.93%K -9.09%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-11 23:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.26%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.12%1.0%2026-04-11 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.26%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.12%1.0%2026-04-11 23:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.26%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.12%1.0%2026-04-11 23:20