Language:English
Ceará v Botafogo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ceará (Local)
Prediction 49.98%2.00fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -4.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.21%50.08%49.93%52.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.831.851.9158.14%54.57%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Botafogo (Visit)
Prediction 21.20%4.72fair odd
EV -0.373%
Edge -0.079%
Kelly -0.101%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.23%21.13%21.22%22.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.404.404.7025.00%22.73%22.73%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.82%3.47fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.86%28.80%28.85%30.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.153.203.3136.36%31.78%31.25%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ceará (Local): 49.98%; Botafogo (Visit): 21.20%; Draw: 28.82%. For Botafogo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.70, with an expected value of -0.373%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.31%EV -4.54%E -2.37%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.66%EV -1.43%E -0.308%K -0.393%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.03%EV -4.60%E -1.39%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-20 21:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -4.54%E -2.37%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.33%E -1.95%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-20 13:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.72%EV -5.54%E -2.93%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -6.73%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -6.33%E -1.95%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-20 21:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.72%EV -5.54%E -2.93%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -6.73%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -6.33%E -1.95%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-20 21:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.21%EV -6.04%E -3.21%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -13.54%E -4.51%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-06-20 20:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -6.54%E -3.49%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -4.61%E -1.03%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.89%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-20 21:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.54%E -3.49%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -8.85%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -4.89%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.82%EV -7.03%E -3.78%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -8.22%E -1.90%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.78%EV -7.19%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.49%E -0.542%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.49%E -0.542%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.49%E -0.542%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.49%E -0.542%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.49%E -0.542%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.49%E -0.542%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.49%E -0.542%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.03%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -2.49%E -0.542%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-20 21:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.91%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV -7.79%E -1.79%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.91%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV -7.79%E -1.79%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.91%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV -7.79%E -1.79%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-20 21:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.81%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -6.73%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -9.21%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-20 21:17 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.81%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -6.73%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -9.21%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-20 21:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.57%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -6.73%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.57%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -6.73%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.57%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -6.73%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.57%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -6.73%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.57%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -8.85%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -9.21%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.76%EV -8.03%E -4.37%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 4.48I 22.32%NM 20.85%EV -5.04%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.39%EV -5.18%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-20 21:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.51%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -0.373%E -0.079%K -0.101%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-20 21:48 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -4.89%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.94%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.50%EV -9.91%E -2.33%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.98%EV -9.03%E -4.96%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -6.73%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.18%EV -10.03%E -5.57%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -8.22%E -1.90%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.95%EV -10.08%E -3.23%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-06-20 21:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -10.03%E -5.57%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -4.61%E -1.03%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -13.54%E -4.51%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-06-20 21:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -10.03%E -5.57%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -15.21%E -3.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-06-20 00:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.04%EV -10.53%E -5.88%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -7.79%E -1.79%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -12.09%E -3.97%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.06%EV -11.03%E -6.20%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.72%EV -8.85%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -12.09%E -3.97%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.96%EV -11.53%E -6.52%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.56%EV -8.85%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.48%EV -13.54%E -4.51%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.12%EV -12.53%E -7.16%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.33%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.24%EV -13.54%E -4.51%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.12%EV -12.53%E -7.16%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.33%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.24%EV -13.54%E -4.51%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-20 21:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.12%EV -12.53%E -7.16%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.33%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.24%EV -13.54%E -4.51%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.00%EV -13.53%E -7.82%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.18%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.82%EV -20.74%E -7.54%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 18.0% | 2026-06-20 21:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.54%EV -14.03%E -8.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.23%EV -0.373%E -0.079%K -0.101%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-06-20 20:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.06% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 1.0% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.84% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-06-20 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.84% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.84% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-06-20 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.98% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94% | 1.6% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |