La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Botafogo v Operario PR
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Botafogo (Local)
Predicción 39.49%2.53momio equitativo
EV -2.47%
Ventaja -1.000%
Kelly -1.68%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.47
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.66%39.74%39.42%42.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.082.272.302.4748.08%44.01%43.48%40.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Operario PR (Visitante)
Predicción 28.01%3.57momio equitativo
EV +5.04%
Ventaja +1.34%
Kelly +1.83%
Crecimiento +0.093%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.87%27.85%28.01%29.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.383.343.7533.33%29.62%29.94%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 32.50%3.08momio equitativo
EV -4.12%
Ventaja -1.40%
Kelly -2.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.86%32.42%32.58%33.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.652.822.852.9537.74%35.49%35.09%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -13.13%E -5.97%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV +5.04%E +1.34%K +1.83%G +0.093% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -7.37%E -2.59%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Casumo | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -13.13%E -5.97%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV +5.04%E +1.34%K +1.83%G +0.093% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -7.37%E -2.59%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -13.13%E -5.97%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV +5.04%E +1.34%K +1.83%G +0.093% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -7.37%E -2.59%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -13.13%E -5.97%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV +5.04%E +1.34%K +1.83%G +0.093% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -7.37%E -2.59%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -13.13%E -5.97%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV +5.04%E +1.34%K +1.83%G +0.093% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -7.37%E -2.59%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -13.13%E -5.97%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV +5.04%E +1.34%K +1.83%G +0.093% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -7.37%E -2.59%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| betPARX | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -13.13%E -5.97%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV +5.04%E +1.34%K +1.83%G +0.093% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -7.37%E -2.59%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Betsson | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.82%EV -13.13%E -5.97%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV +0.842%E +0.234%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.62%EV -8.34%E -2.96%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-13 15:10 |
| BetRivers | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.81%EV -14.32%E -6.60%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV +0.842%E +0.234%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -10.62%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Grosvenor | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.75%EV -15.50%E -7.24%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.17%EV -0.559%E -0.157%K -0.219%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.09%EV -12.24%E -4.53%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| TABtouch | 2.12I 47.17%NM 41.98%EV -16.29%E -7.68%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.07%EV -0.559%E -0.157%K -0.219%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.96%EV -12.24%E -4.53%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.12I 47.17%NM 41.98%EV -16.29%E -7.68%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.07%EV -0.559%E -0.157%K -0.219%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.96%EV -12.24%E -4.53%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| LeoVegas | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.03%EV -17.87%E -8.59%K -16.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.98%EV -1.96%E -0.560%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.99%EV -13.87%E -5.23%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.03%EV -17.87%E -8.59%K -16.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.98%EV -1.96%E -0.560%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.99%EV -13.87%E -5.23%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.03%EV -17.87%E -8.59%K -16.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.98%EV -1.96%E -0.560%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.99%EV -13.87%E -5.23%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| 1xBet | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.26%EV -6.02%E -2.53%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.01%EV -3.08%E -0.890%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.73%EV -9.97%E -3.60%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.96%EV -2.47%E -1.000%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.97%EV -3.64%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.07%EV -5.42%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.11%EV -5.23%E -2.18%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.76%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.28%EV -8.34%E -2.96%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.11%EV -5.23%E -2.18%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.76%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.28%EV -8.34%E -2.96%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Betway | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -9.18%E -3.99%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.76%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -6.39%E -2.22%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| NordicBet | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV -9.97%E -4.37%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.23%EV -4.76%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -6.39%E -2.22%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| DraftKings | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -5.23%E -2.18%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -6.16%E -1.84%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -5.74%E -1.98%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -6.02%E -2.53%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.77%EV -6.44%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 33.25%EV -9.32%E -3.34%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.02%E -2.53%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.39%E -2.22%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| FanDuel | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -9.18%E -3.99%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -4.12%E -1.40%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-14 13:30 |
| SportsBet | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -9.18%E -3.99%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -5.74%E -1.98%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-14 13:30 |
| 888sport | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.02%E -2.53%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -10.62%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| William Hill | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.02%E -2.53%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -10.62%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.02%E -2.53%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -10.62%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.02%E -2.53%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -10.62%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.50%EV -8.39%E -3.62%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -13.13%E -5.97%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -7.37%E -2.59%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Bovada | 2.37I 42.19%NM 38.83%EV -6.42%E -2.71%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.96%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| BetUS | 2.37I 42.19%NM 38.83%EV -6.42%E -2.71%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.96%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Paddy Power | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -13.13%E -5.97%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -8.96%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| theScore Bet | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.21%E -3.07%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -10.36%E -3.24%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -5.74%E -1.98%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-14 21:30 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -7.21%E -3.07%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -13.16%E -4.25%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -5.74%E -1.98%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-06-14 21:30 |
| PlayUp | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.18%E -3.99%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -13.16%E -4.25%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -5.74%E -1.98%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Bet Victor | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -9.18%E -3.99%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -13.16%E -4.25%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -6.39%E -2.22%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| betfred_uk | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.18%E -3.99%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -13.16%E -4.25%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-14 21:30 |
| BoyleSports | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.18%E -3.99%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -13.16%E -4.25%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-14 21:39 |
| Neds | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -11.16%E -4.96%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -15.97%E -5.32%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -6.39%E -2.22%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-06-14 21:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -11.16%E -4.96%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -15.97%E -5.32%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -6.39%E -2.22%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-06-14 21:30 |
| Coral | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.46%EV -11.16%E -4.96%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -15.97%E -5.32%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.94%EV -6.72%E -2.34%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-06-14 21:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.46%EV -11.16%E -4.96%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -15.97%E -5.32%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.94%EV -6.72%E -2.34%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-06-14 21:30 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.94% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.19% | 1.1% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.09% | 1.4% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.09% | 1.4% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.09% | 1.4% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Smarkets | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.96% | 1.8% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |