La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Botafogo v Fortaleza
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Botafogo (Local)
Predicción 26.44%3.78momio equitativo
EV +3.11%
Ventaja +0.797%
Kelly +1.07%
Crecimiento +0.033%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.37%26.34%26.49%27.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.253.443.403.9030.77%29.06%29.41%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Fortaleza (Visitante)
Predicción 42.99%2.33momio equitativo
EV -4.99%
Ventaja -2.26%
Kelly -4.12%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.21
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.57%43.13%42.96%45.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.142.152.2150.00%46.78%46.51%45.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 30.57%3.27momio equitativo
EV -0.646%
Ventaja -0.199%
Kelly -0.287%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.77%30.54%30.54%31.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.853.053.003.2535.09%32.80%33.33%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.68%EV +3.11%E +0.797%K +1.07%G +0.033% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.55%EV -4.99%E -2.26%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.77%EV -7.37%E -2.43%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| 1xBet | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.01%EV -1.12%E -0.300%K -0.410%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.71%EV -8.00%E -3.74%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.28%EV -8.59%E -2.87%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Tipico (DE) | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -2.18%E -0.589%K -0.808%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.08%EV -14.02%E -7.01%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -9.82%E -3.33%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.59%EV -4.30%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.89%EV -7.14%E -3.30%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.51%EV -10.12%E -3.44%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| DraftKings | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.42%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.76%E -2.22%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| SportsBet | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -9.72%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| FanDuel | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -9.72%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Bovada | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.53%EV -6.71%E -3.09%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -11.35%E -3.91%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 22:13 |
| BetUS | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.53%EV -6.71%E -3.09%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -11.35%E -3.91%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Coolbet | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.57%E -3.52%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.42%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| NordicBet | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -6.28%E -2.88%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Betsson | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -6.28%E -2.88%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| theScore Bet | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -11.87%E -5.79%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -2.17%E -0.680%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.72%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| PlayUp | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.22%EV -7.57%E -3.52%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -12.87%E -4.52%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Paddy Power | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -11.87%E -5.79%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.55%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.40%EV -7.14%E -3.30%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -9.82%E -3.33%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -6.71%E -3.09%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -0.646%E -0.199%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -6.71%E -3.09%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -0.646%E -0.199%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Casumo | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -6.71%E -3.09%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -0.646%E -0.199%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Unibet | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -6.71%E -3.09%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -0.646%E -0.199%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| betPARX | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -6.71%E -3.09%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -0.646%E -0.199%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| ATG (SE) | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -6.71%E -3.09%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -0.646%E -0.199%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -6.71%E -3.09%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -0.646%E -0.199%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 22:15 |
| BetRivers | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.28%EV -7.14%E -3.30%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -2.17%E -0.680%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 22:03 |
| Betway | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.42%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| 888sport | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.42%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -11.35%E -3.91%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| William Hill | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.42%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -11.35%E -3.91%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.42%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -11.35%E -3.91%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.42%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -11.35%E -3.91%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| BetMGM | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.72%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| BoyleSports | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -11.87%E -5.79%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -11.35%E -3.91%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Grosvenor | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -11.43%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.37%EV -8.86%E -4.18%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -3.70%E -1.18%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| LowVig.ag | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -11.43%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.51%EV -8.00%E -3.74%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-21 22:15 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -11.43%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.51%EV -8.00%E -3.74%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.19%EV -8.86%E -4.18%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -3.70%E -1.18%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| TABtouch | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.42%EV -9.72%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -3.70%E -1.18%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-21 22:12 |
| Neds | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.72%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.72%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-21 22:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.72%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Coral | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.72%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-21 22:15 |
| Bet Victor | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.72%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.29%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.27%EV -10.58%E -5.08%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| LeoVegas | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.27%EV -10.58%E -5.08%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.27%EV -10.58%E -5.08%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.23% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.57% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.60% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.15% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.26% | 1.6% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.60% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.15% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.26% | 1.6% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.92% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.62% | 2.2% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Smarkets | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.67% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.90% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.43% | 2.6% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |