La escuela de los momios

Botafogo v Clube de Regatas Brasil

Inicio: 2026-06-30 23:00 UTC

Final: Botafogo 0–1 Clube de Regatas Brasil

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Predicción 38.69%2.58momio equitativo
EV -4.44%
Ventaja -1.80%
Kelly -3.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.23%38.91%38.68%41.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.172.342.382.4746.08%42.70%42.02%40.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Clube de Regatas Brasil (Visitante)

Predicción 31.40%3.18momio equitativo
EV +3.63%
Ventaja +1.10%
Kelly +1.58%
Crecimiento +0.057%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.04%31.25%31.51%32.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.752.962.953.3036.36%33.77%33.90%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.91%3.34momio equitativo
EV -3.99%
Ventaja -1.24%
Kelly -1.80%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.77%29.84%29.81%30.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.053.053.2134.48%32.78%32.79%31.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -12.96%E -5.76%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV +3.63%E +1.10%K +1.58%G +0.057%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-30 01:19
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -1.08%E -0.343%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-30 22:19
Unibet (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -1.08%E -0.343%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-30 22:19
Unibet (NL)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -1.08%E -0.343%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-30 22:19
Unibet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -1.08%E -0.343%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-30 22:19
Svenska Spel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -1.08%E -0.343%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-30 22:19
betPARX2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -1.08%E -0.343%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-30 22:19
ATG (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -1.08%E -0.343%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-30 22:19
Pinnacle2.47I 40.49%NM 38.97%EV -4.44%E -1.80%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV -2.65%E -0.855%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.98%EV -3.99%E -1.24%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-30 22:39
BetRivers2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -12.96%E -5.76%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -2.65%E -0.855%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-30 22:19
LowVig.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.93%E -3.33%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -4.22%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -5.78%E -1.84%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-30 22:39
BetOnline.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.93%E -3.33%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -4.22%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -5.78%E -1.84%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-30 22:39
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -13.73%E -6.16%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -4.22%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -11.76%E -3.99%K -6.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-30 20:39
Marathon Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97%EV -7.93%E -3.33%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.51%EV -4.53%E -1.49%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.51%EV -9.07%E -2.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-30 22:50
1xBet2.41I 41.49%NM 38.83%EV -6.77%E -2.81%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.09%EV -5.48%E -1.82%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.09%EV -6.98%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-30 22:50
Betway2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -7.93%E -3.33%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.79%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-30 22:50
BetUS2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -9.09%E -3.87%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -5.79%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-30 22:49
Bovada2.35I 42.55%NM 39.16%EV -9.09%E -3.87%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -5.79%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -8.77%E -2.88%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-30 22:47
LeoVegas (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -14.89%E -6.77%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -5.79%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -11.76%E -3.99%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-30 22:19
TABtouch2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -14.89%E -6.77%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -5.79%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -11.76%E -3.99%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-30 22:19
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -5.22%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -7.36%E -2.50%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -5.78%E -1.84%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-30 22:39
Tipico (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.18%EV -12.96%E -5.76%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -7.36%E -2.50%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 22:19
LeoVegas2.17I 46.08%NM 40.26%EV -16.05%E -7.40%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.61%EV -7.36%E -2.50%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.13%EV -13.26%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%14.5%2026-06-30 22:19
Virgin Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 40.26%EV -16.05%E -7.40%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.61%EV -7.36%E -2.50%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.13%EV -13.26%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%14.5%2026-06-30 22:19
LiveScore Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 40.26%EV -16.05%E -7.40%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.61%EV -7.36%E -2.50%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.13%EV -13.26%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%14.5%2026-06-30 22:19
NordicBet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.52%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%EV -8.30%E -2.84%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-30 22:19
Unibet (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.93%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-30 22:19
Codere (IT)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.93%E -3.33%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.93%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-30 22:19
888sport2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.93%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 22:50
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.93%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 22:49
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.93%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 22:49
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.93%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 22:49
SportsBet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -5.22%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -10.50%E -3.68%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -8.77%E -2.88%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-30 22:20
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -5.22%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -10.50%E -3.68%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-30 22:18
BetMGM2.40I 41.67%NM 37.85%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -10.50%E -3.68%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-30 22:19
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -12.07%E -4.31%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.29%E -1.34%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-30 22:20
PointsBet (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -12.07%E -4.31%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.29%E -1.34%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-30 22:19
PlayUp2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -12.07%E -4.31%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 22:19
Ladbrokes (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -7.93%E -3.33%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -12.07%E -4.31%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 22:19
Neds2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -7.93%E -3.33%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -12.07%E -4.31%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 22:20
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 37.93%EV -8.31%E -3.51%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.11%EV -12.07%E -4.31%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 22:19
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 37.93%EV -8.31%E -3.51%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.11%EV -12.07%E -4.31%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 22:19
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.10%EV -12.07%E -4.31%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.81%EV -6.68%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 22:38
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -7.93%E -3.33%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -13.64%E -4.96%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 22:19
Paddy Power2.38I 42.02%NM 37.23%EV -7.93%E -3.33%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.22%EV -13.64%E -4.96%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -13.26%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%12.9%2026-06-30 22:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-06-30 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-06-30 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-06-30 22:50
Matchbook2.54I 39.37%NM 39.01%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.96%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.03%0.9%2026-06-30 22:50
Smarkets2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.06%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%2.2%2026-06-30 22:50