Language:English
Botafogo-SP v América Mineiro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Botafogo-SP (Local)
Prediction 49.65%2.01fair odd
EV -5.17%
Edge -2.71%
Kelly -5.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.96%49.76%49.63%53.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.851.851.9158.82%54.10%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
América Mineiro (Visit)
Prediction 21.40%4.67fair odd
EV +2.70%
Edge +0.563%
Kelly +0.712%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.78%21.42%21.37%24.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.254.304.8026.32%23.51%23.26%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.96%3.45fair odd
EV -0.102%
Edge -0.029%
Kelly -0.042%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.04%28.82%29.00%30.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.133.4533.33%31.46%31.90%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo-SP (Local): 49.65%; América Mineiro (Visit): 21.40%; Draw: 28.96%. For América Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.67. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.70%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -15.60%E -9.18%K -22.29%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.78%EV +2.70%E +0.563%K +0.712%G +0.019% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -7.34%E -2.29%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-08 21:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.30%EV -5.17%E -2.71%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 4.77I 20.96%NM 20.14%EV +2.06%E +0.432%K +0.547%G +0.011% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.56%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-08 21:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.01%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.33%EV -2.64%E -0.581%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.65%EV -9.66%E -3.10%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 20:48 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.17%E -2.71%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -3.71%E -0.825%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -7.34%E -2.29%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 04:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.09%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -3.71%E -0.825%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.32%EV -8.50%E -2.69%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 19:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.00%E -0.895%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 21:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -4.45%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 21:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -13.13%E -4.38%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 21:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -13.13%E -4.38%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 21:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -13.13%E -4.38%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 21:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -13.13%E -4.38%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 21:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -6.92%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 07:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -6.92%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 07:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -6.92%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 07:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -7.35%E -1.70%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-08 07:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.16%E -3.83%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -4.45%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 21:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 21:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 21:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 21:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 21:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 21:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 21:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 21:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.07%EV -7.16%E -3.83%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 09:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -9.06%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 21:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -4.45%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-07 11:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 21:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.44%EV -10.64%E -5.91%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 21:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.44%EV -10.64%E -5.91%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 21:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.45%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.00%EV -9.66%E -3.10%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 21:23 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.45%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.00%EV -9.66%E -3.10%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 21:23 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-08 01:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -10.64%E -5.91%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-08 20:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.06%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -12.27%E -2.99%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.79%E -2.79%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-08 20:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.96%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -12.27%E -2.99%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -13.13%E -4.38%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-08 21:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.24%EV -9.64%E -5.30%K -11.76%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.86%EV -12.27%E -2.99%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-08 21:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.37%EV -10.14%E -5.60%K -12.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.27%E -2.99%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-08 21:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -0.102%E -0.029%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 20:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -0.102%E -0.029%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 20:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -0.102%E -0.029%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 20:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-08 21:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-08 21:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -10.64%E -5.91%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-08 21:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.29%EV -11.63%E -6.53%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.77%EV -11.68%E -3.83%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-08 21:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.29%EV -11.63%E -6.53%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.77%EV -11.68%E -3.83%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-08 21:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.17%E -2.71%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -18.69%E -4.92%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -1.55%E -0.456%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.60% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 0.4% | 2026-08-08 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.60% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 0.4% | 2026-08-08 21:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.60% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 0.4% | 2026-08-08 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.73% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79% | 0.7% | 2026-08-08 21:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.32% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.71% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98% | 1.5% | 2026-08-08 21:25 |