Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Botafogo-SP v América Mineiro

Início: 2026-08-08 21:30 UTC

Final: Botafogo-SP 2–1 América Mineiro

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

46 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Botafogo-SP (Local)

Previsão 49.65%2.01odd justa
EV -5.17%
Vantagem -2.71%
Kelly -5.69%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.91

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.96%49.76%49.63%53.04%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.701.851.851.9158.82%54.10%54.05%52.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

América Mineiro (Visitante)

Previsão 21.40%4.67odd justa
EV +2.70%
Vantagem +0.563%
Kelly +0.712%
Crescimento +0.019%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
18.78%21.42%21.37%24.35%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.804.254.304.8026.32%23.51%23.26%20.83%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.96%3.45odd justa
EV -0.102%
Vantagem -0.029%
Kelly -0.042%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.04%28.82%29.00%30.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.183.133.4533.33%31.46%31.90%28.99%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Botafogo-SP (Local): 49.65%; América Mineiro (Visitante): 21.40%; Empate: 28.96%. Para América Mineiro (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.67. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.80, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.70%.

Odds das casas de apostas (46 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -15.60%E -9.18%K -22.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.78%EV +2.70%E +0.563%K +0.712%G +0.019%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -7.34%E -2.29%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-08 21:25
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.30%EV -5.17%E -2.71%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 20.14%EV +2.06%E +0.432%K +0.547%G +0.011%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.56%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 21:00
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.01%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.33%EV -2.64%E -0.581%K -0.745%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.65%EV -9.66%E -3.10%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 20:48
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.17%E -2.71%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -3.71%E -0.825%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -7.34%E -2.29%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 04:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.09%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -3.71%E -0.825%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.32%EV -8.50%E -2.69%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 19:40
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.00%E -0.895%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 21:24
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -4.45%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 21:25
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -13.13%E -4.38%K -6.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 21:20
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -13.13%E -4.38%K -6.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 21:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -13.13%E -4.38%K -6.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 21:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -13.13%E -4.38%K -6.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 21:19
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -6.92%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 07:20
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -6.92%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 07:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -6.92%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 07:20
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -7.35%E -1.70%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 07:05
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.16%E -3.83%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -4.45%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 21:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 21:19
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 21:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 21:20
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 21:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 21:20
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 21:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 21:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.07%EV -7.16%E -3.83%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 09:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -9.06%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 21:24
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -4.45%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-07 11:50
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 21:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.44%EV -10.64%E -5.91%K -13.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 21:25
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.44%EV -10.64%E -5.91%K -13.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 21:24
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.45%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.00%EV -9.66%E -3.10%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 21:23
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.45%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.00%EV -9.66%E -3.10%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 21:23
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 01:40
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -10.64%E -5.91%K -13.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -10.13%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-08 20:54
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.06%EV -8.15%E -4.41%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -12.27%E -2.99%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.79%E -2.79%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 20:50
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.96%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -12.27%E -2.99%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -13.13%E -4.38%K -6.57%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-08 21:04
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.24%EV -9.64%E -5.30%K -11.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.86%EV -12.27%E -2.99%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-08 21:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.37%EV -10.14%E -5.60%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.27%E -2.99%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 21:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -0.102%E -0.029%K -0.042%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 20:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -0.102%E -0.029%K -0.042%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 20:54
BetUS🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -0.102%E -0.029%K -0.042%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 20:55
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 21:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 21:04
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -10.64%E -5.91%K -13.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -10.24%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 21:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.29%EV -11.63%E -6.53%K -14.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.77%EV -11.68%E -3.83%K -5.70%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-08 21:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.29%EV -11.63%E -6.53%K -14.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.77%EV -11.68%E -3.83%K -5.70%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-08 21:20
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.17%E -2.71%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -18.69%E -4.92%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -1.55%E -0.456%K -0.646%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 18:00
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.60%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-08-08 21:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.60%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-08-08 21:20
Matchbook◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.60%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-08-08 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.73%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%0.7%2026-08-08 21:25
Smarkets◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.32%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.71%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98%1.5%2026-08-08 21:25