Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Botafogo-SP v América Mineiro

2026-08-08 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Botafogo-SP (Local)

Predicción 49.39%2.02momio equitativo
EV -5.66%
Ventaja -2.97%
Kelly -6.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.91

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.81%49.43%49.24%50.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.771.851.851.9156.50%53.97%54.05%52.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

América Mineiro (Visitante)

Predicción 21.30%4.70momio equitativo
EV -0.328%
Ventaja -0.070%
Kelly -0.089%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.02%21.29%21.22%23.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.234.304.6826.32%23.65%23.26%21.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.31%3.41momio equitativo
EV -3.27%
Ventaja -0.991%
Kelly -1.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.31%29.28%29.54%30.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.143.103.3033.33%31.84%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Botafogo-SP (Local): 49.39%; América Mineiro (Visitante): 21.30%; Empate: 29.31%. Para América Mineiro (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.70. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 4.68, con un valor esperado de -0.328%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.77%EV -5.66%E -2.97%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -8.42%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -7.67%E -2.43%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 14:45
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -5.66%E -2.97%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-06 14:45
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -5.66%E -2.97%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-06 14:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -5.66%E -2.97%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-06 14:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -5.66%E -2.97%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-06 14:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.67%EV -6.16%E -3.24%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -8.42%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-06 14:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.67%EV -6.16%E -3.24%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -8.42%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-06 14:45
BetUS🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.67%EV -6.16%E -3.24%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -8.42%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-06 14:45
Pinnacle🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.65%E -3.52%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.19%EV -0.328%E -0.070%K -0.089%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.81%EV -7.08%E -2.23%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 14:45
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -7.15%E -3.80%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -7.36%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-06 14:43
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -7.15%E -3.80%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -7.36%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-06 14:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -7.15%E -3.80%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -7.36%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-06 14:45
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.96%EV -7.15%E -3.80%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -12.68%E -3.09%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-06 14:50
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.99%EV -7.64%E -4.09%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -6.29%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 14:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.64%E -4.09%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -8.42%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -3.27%E -0.991%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 19:15
Unibet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.64%E -4.09%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -8.42%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -3.27%E -0.991%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 19:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.64%E -4.09%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -8.42%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -3.27%E -0.991%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 19:15
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.64%E -4.09%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -8.42%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -3.27%E -0.991%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 19:16
Svenska Spel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.64%E -4.09%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -8.42%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -3.27%E -0.991%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 19:15
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.64%E -4.09%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -8.42%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -3.27%E -0.991%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 19:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.64%E -4.09%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -8.42%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -3.27%E -0.991%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 19:15
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.45%EV -7.64%E -4.09%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -16.94%E -4.34%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.31%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-06 14:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -8.63%E -4.66%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -4.16%E -0.925%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -3.27%E -0.991%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-06 14:45
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.63%E -4.66%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -4.16%E -0.925%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 14:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -8.63%E -4.66%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -2.03%E -0.442%K -0.564%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.72%EV -8.55%E -2.74%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-06 14:45
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.92%EV -8.63%E -4.66%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.30%EV -3.10%E -0.681%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-06 14:44
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -8.63%E -4.66%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -7.78%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-06 14:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -8.63%E -4.66%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-06 14:45
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -8.63%E -4.66%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -19.07%E -5.02%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-06 14:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -8.63%E -4.66%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -19.07%E -5.02%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-06 14:45
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -8.63%E -4.66%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -19.07%E -5.02%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-06 14:43
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -8.63%E -4.66%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -19.07%E -5.02%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-06 14:44
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.31%EV -9.62%E -5.25%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -6.29%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-06 14:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.94%EV -9.62%E -5.25%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.50%EV -9.49%E -2.23%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-06 14:45
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.55%EV -9.62%E -5.25%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -12.68%E -3.09%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.34%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-06 19:15
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -9.62%E -5.25%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-06 14:45
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.10%EV -9.62%E -5.25%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -12.68%E -3.09%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-06 15:00
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.10%EV -9.62%E -5.25%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -12.68%E -3.09%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-06 15:03
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.60%EV -10.60%E -5.86%K -13.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%EV -12.68%E -3.09%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.50%EV -7.67%E -2.43%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-06 19:15
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -11.10%E -6.17%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -6.29%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-06 14:44
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.55%EV -11.10%E -6.17%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -7.78%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-06 14:42
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -11.10%E -6.17%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-06 14:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -11.10%E -6.17%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -14.81%E -3.70%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 19:16
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.38%EV -11.59%E -6.48%K -14.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.10%EV -14.81%E -3.70%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.52%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-06 19:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.91%EV -12.58%E -7.11%K -16.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -4.16%E -0.925%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -9.13%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-06 14:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.30%EV -12.58%E -7.11%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.09%EV -15.88%E -4.02%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -10.60%E -3.47%K -5.17%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-06 19:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.30%EV -12.58%E -7.11%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.09%EV -15.88%E -4.02%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -10.60%E -3.47%K -5.17%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-06 19:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.78I 56.18%NM 48.87%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%2.86I 34.97%NM 30.42%15.0%2026-08-06 15:05