Language:English
Avai v Vila Nova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Avai (Local)
Prediction 37.27%2.68fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.41%37.13%37.28%38.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.462.502.5742.02%40.57%40.00%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vila Nova (Visit)
Prediction 31.63%3.16fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -0.627%
Kelly -0.925%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.11%31.72%31.58%33.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.903.1037.04%34.60%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.10%3.22fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.15%31.14%31.14%32.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.942.943.1035.71%33.96%34.01%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avai (Local): 37.27%; Vila Nova (Visit): 31.63%; Draw: 31.10%. For Vila Nova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -1.94%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.47%EV -4.23%E -1.64%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.06%EV -1.94%E -0.627%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.47%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.45%EV -14.59%E -5.41%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.27%EV -6.09%E -2.42%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -3.52%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.94%EV -8.56%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-15 00:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.27%EV -6.09%E -2.42%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -3.52%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.94%EV -8.56%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-15 00:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.27%EV -6.09%E -2.42%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -3.52%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.94%EV -8.56%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-15 00:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -3.52%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-15 00:26 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -1.94%E -0.627%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -1.94%E -0.627%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-15 00:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -8.90%E -3.09%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -3.58%E -1.16%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 00:26 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 00:26 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 00:26 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-15 00:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-15 00:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-15 00:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 37.31%EV -7.95%E -3.22%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.45%EV -8.87%E -3.03%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-15 00:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.04%EV -8.32%E -3.38%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.98%EV -4.47%E -1.48%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.98%EV -6.07%E -2.01%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 37.40%EV -8.32%E -3.38%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.30%EV -7.00%E -2.38%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.30%EV -8.56%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 37.28%EV -8.32%E -3.38%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -8.25%E -2.80%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 00:16 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -8.25%E -2.80%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -8.25%E -2.80%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -9.85%E -3.46%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -12.91%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-15 00:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -12.91%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-15 00:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -8.90%E -3.09%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -8.90%E -3.09%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-15 00:26 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.49%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.29%EV -8.25%E -2.80%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -11.31%E -4.75%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-15 00:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -11.31%E -4.75%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.15%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.70%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.52% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.47% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.52% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.47% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 00:16 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.52% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.47% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.17% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.41% | 1.2% | 2026-09-15 00:16 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.34% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.32% | 1.4% | 2026-09-15 00:10 |