Idioma:Español
Avai v Vila Nova
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Avai (Local)
Predicción 37.27%2.68momio equitativo
EV -4.23%
Ventaja -1.64%
Kelly -2.69%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.57
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.41%37.13%37.28%38.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.382.462.502.5742.02%40.57%40.00%38.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Vila Nova (Visitante)
Predicción 31.63%3.16momio equitativo
EV -1.94%
Ventaja -0.627%
Kelly -0.925%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.11%31.72%31.58%33.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.892.903.1037.04%34.60%34.48%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 31.10%3.22momio equitativo
EV -3.58%
Ventaja -1.16%
Kelly -1.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.15%31.14%31.14%32.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.942.943.1035.71%33.96%34.01%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Avai (Local): 37.27%; Vila Nova (Visitante): 31.63%; Empate: 31.10%. Para Vila Nova (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.16. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.10, con un valor esperado de -1.94%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.47%EV -4.23%E -1.64%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.06%EV -1.94%E -0.627%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.47%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.45%EV -14.59%E -5.41%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.27%EV -6.09%E -2.42%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -3.52%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.94%EV -8.56%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-15 00:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.27%EV -6.09%E -2.42%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -3.52%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.94%EV -8.56%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-15 00:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.27%EV -6.09%E -2.42%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -3.52%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.94%EV -8.56%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-15 00:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -3.52%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-15 00:26 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -1.94%E -0.627%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -1.94%E -0.627%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-15 00:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -8.90%E -3.09%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -3.58%E -1.16%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 00:26 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 00:26 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 00:26 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-15 00:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-15 00:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-15 00:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 37.31%EV -7.95%E -3.22%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.45%EV -8.87%E -3.03%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-15 00:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.04%EV -8.32%E -3.38%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.98%EV -4.47%E -1.48%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.98%EV -6.07%E -2.01%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 37.40%EV -8.32%E -3.38%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.30%EV -7.00%E -2.38%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.30%EV -8.56%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 37.28%EV -8.32%E -3.38%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -8.25%E -2.80%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 00:16 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -8.25%E -2.80%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -8.25%E -2.80%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -9.85%E -3.46%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -12.91%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-15 00:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -12.91%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-15 00:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -8.90%E -3.09%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -8.90%E -3.09%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-15 00:26 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.49%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.29%EV -8.25%E -2.80%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -11.31%E -4.75%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-15 00:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -11.31%E -4.75%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.15%EV -13.01%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.70%EV -10.43%E -3.62%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-15 00:25 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.52% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.47% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.52% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.47% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 00:16 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.52% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.47% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.17% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.41% | 1.2% | 2026-09-15 00:16 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.34% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.32% | 1.4% | 2026-09-15 00:10 |