The School of OddsAtletico Goianiense v Fortaleza
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atletico Goianiense (Local)
Prediction 38.22%2.62fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.93%38.25%38.23%39.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.282.392.402.5243.86%41.81%41.67%39.68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Fortaleza (Visit)
Prediction 32.50%3.08fair odd
EV -5.10%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.41%32.53%32.47%33.72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.702.822.852.9237.04%35.40%35.09%34.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Draw
Prediction 29.28%3.42fair odd
EV -0.459%
Edge -0.135%
Kelly -0.191%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.34%29.23%29.30%31.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.103.4034.48%32.06%32.26%29.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.09%EV -3.67%E -1.46%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -6.40%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 30.45%EV -10.12%E -3.30%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| DraftKings | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.00%EV -4.44%E -1.78%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.23%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| BetUS | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -4.44%E -1.78%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -6.40%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.68%EV -4.82%E -1.94%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.99%EV -5.10%E -1.75%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.33%EV -0.459%E -0.135%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| 888sport | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -6.35%E -2.59%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -15.10%E -5.21%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -6.35%E -2.59%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -15.10%E -5.21%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| PlayUp | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -6.35%E -2.59%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.63%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.58%EV -6.73%E -2.76%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-12 21:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.58%EV -6.73%E -2.76%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| NordicBet | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.32%EV -7.50%E -3.10%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.76%EV -5.10%E -1.75%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Betsson | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.32%EV -7.50%E -3.10%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.76%EV -5.10%E -1.75%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Unibet | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-12 21:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Casumo | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| betPARX | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Betway | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.00%E -3.22%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| SportsBet | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -10.63%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -1.92%E -0.574%K -0.818%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-12 21:00 |
| FanDuel | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -10.63%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -5.75%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-12 21:00 |
| LeoVegas | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.40%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.38%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.38%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| theScore Bet | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -9.00%E -3.22%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| BetMGM | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -10.63%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Bet Victor | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -9.00%E -3.22%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| betano_uk | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -10.63%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -12.25%E -4.54%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Neds | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -12.25%E -4.54%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -12.25%E -4.54%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Coral | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -8.26%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -12.25%E -4.54%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Paddy Power | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -9.03%E -3.79%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.72%EV -12.25%E -4.54%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-12 21:00 |
| BetRivers | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.23%EV -9.03%E -3.79%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -7.38%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -10.71%E -3.51%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-12 20:46 |
| BoyleSports | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -9.03%E -3.79%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -12.25%E -4.54%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Bovada | 2.36I 42.37%NM 38.98%EV -9.79%E -4.15%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -7.38%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.75%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-12 21:00 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -10.17%E -4.33%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -7.38%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Grosvenor | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.62%EV -11.32%E -4.88%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.00%EV -9.00%E -3.22%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.38%EV -10.71%E -3.51%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| William Hill | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -6.40%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -6.40%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -12.25%E -4.54%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| betfred_uk | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.00%E -3.22%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.00%E -3.22%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| TABtouch | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -10.63%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.43%EV -12.85%E -5.64%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -10.63%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.70%EV -13.63%E -4.62%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.43%EV -12.85%E -5.64%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -10.63%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.70%EV -13.63%E -4.62%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.48% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.09% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 0.5% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.42% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.57% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.01% | 0.6% | 2026-07-12 20:59 |
| Smarkets | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.22% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.91% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87% | 1.1% | 2026-07-12 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.22% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.91% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87% | 1.1% | 2026-07-12 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.22% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.91% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87% | 1.1% | 2026-07-12 21:00 |