Language:English
Athletic Club (MG) v Vila Nova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Athletic Club (MG) (Local)
Prediction 34.68%2.88fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -0.902%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.81%34.77%34.55%37.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.582.622.8143.10%38.73%38.17%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vila Nova (Visit)
Prediction 34.31%2.91fair odd
EV -0.513%
Edge -0.177%
Kelly -0.270%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.84%34.22%34.37%36.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.732.712.9040.00%36.60%36.97%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.01%3.22fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.95%31.01%31.08%32.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.972.983.1035.71%33.66%33.56%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 34.68%; Vila Nova (Visit): 34.31%; Draw: 31.01%. For Vila Nova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -0.513%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.29%EV -2.54%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.42%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.29%EV -4.49%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.29%EV -2.54%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.42%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.29%EV -4.49%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -4.62%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 10:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -4.62%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -14.23%E -5.69%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-04 11:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.42%EV -4.96%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -4.63%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -7.59%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.42%EV -4.96%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -4.63%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -7.59%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 10:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.39%EV -7.72%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.36%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 13:16 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.59%EV -7.04%E -2.63%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.20%EV -7.03%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.21%EV -7.90%E -2.66%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 10:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 10:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 11:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 10:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 10:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.36%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-04 10:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.30%EV -8.78%E -3.34%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.13%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -9.13%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -10.80%E -4.16%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -10.69%E -3.71%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.45%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -10.69%E -3.71%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 10:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -11.55%E -4.53%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -9.78%E -3.72%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -9.78%E -3.72%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-04 10:38 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.85%EV -16.76%E -6.98%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -2.23%E -0.782%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-04 13:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.94%EV -18.49%E -7.87%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.84%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.94%EV -18.49%E -7.87%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.84%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-04 13:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 37.92%EV -19.18%E -8.23%K -14.42%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.83%EV -19.53%E -8.42%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.91%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.26%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-04 13:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.83%EV -19.53%E -8.42%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.91%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.26%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-04 13:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.46% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01% | 0.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |