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Athletic Club (MG) v Vila Nova
Коэффициенты закрытия — вероятности и ожидаемая ценность, рассчитанные выбранной моделью по последним коэффициентам, зарегистрированным до начала матча. Матч уже начался, поэтому это не текущие показатели. Оценить надёжность вероятностных прогнозов каждой модели по результатам всех завершённых матчей →
Победитель встречи
Athletic Club (MG) (Хозяева)
Прогноз 34.68%2.88справедливый коэффициент
EV -2.54%
Преимущество -0.902%
Kelly -1.40%
Рост +0.000%
при максимальном коэффициенте 2.81
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
32.81%34.77%34.55%37.95%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
2.322.582.622.8143.10%38.73%38.17%35.59%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Vila Nova (Гости)
Прогноз 34.31%2.91справедливый коэффициент
EV -0.513%
Преимущество -0.177%
Kelly -0.270%
Рост +0.000%
при максимальном коэффициенте 2.90
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
31.84%34.22%34.37%36.09%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
2.502.732.712.9040.00%36.60%36.97%34.48%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Ничья
Прогноз 31.01%3.22справедливый коэффициент
EV -3.87%
Преимущество -1.25%
Kelly -1.84%
Рост +0.000%
при максимальном коэффициенте 3.10
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
29.95%31.01%31.08%32.53%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
2.802.972.983.1035.71%33.66%33.56%32.26%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
По последним коэффициентам перед началом модель Межквартильное среднее (Отобранный список) оценивала рынок «Победитель встречи» так: Athletic Club (MG) (Хозяева): 34.68%; Vila Nova (Гости): 34.31%; Ничья: 31.01%. Для исхода «Vila Nova (Гости)» эта оценка соответствовала справедливому десятичному коэффициенту 2.91. Ни один подходящий букмекер не предлагал итоговый коэффициент выше этого уровня: лучший составлял 2.90, математическое ожидание — -0.513%; положительного ожидания не было.
Коэффициенты букмекерских контор (46 букмекерских контор)
Мы не связаны ни с одной букмекерской конторой и ничего не зарабатываем на действиях, совершаемых у них.
| Букмекерская контора | Хозяева ▼ | Гости | Ничья | Маржа | Обновлено |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.29%EV -2.54%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.42%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.29%EV -4.49%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.29%EV -2.54%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.42%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.29%EV -4.49%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -4.62%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 10:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -4.62%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -14.23%E -5.69%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-04 11:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.42%EV -4.96%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -4.63%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -7.59%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.42%EV -4.96%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -4.63%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -7.59%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 10:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.39%EV -7.72%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.36%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 13:16 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.59%EV -7.04%E -2.63%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.20%EV -7.03%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.21%EV -7.90%E -2.66%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 10:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 10:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 11:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 10:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 10:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.36%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-04 10:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.30%EV -8.78%E -3.34%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.13%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -9.13%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -10.80%E -4.16%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -10.69%E -3.71%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.45%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -10.69%E -3.71%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 10:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -11.55%E -4.53%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -9.78%E -3.72%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -9.78%E -3.72%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-04 10:38 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.85%EV -16.76%E -6.98%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -2.23%E -0.782%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-04 13:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.94%EV -18.49%E -7.87%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.84%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.94%EV -18.49%E -7.87%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.84%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-04 13:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 37.92%EV -19.18%E -8.23%K -14.42%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.83%EV -19.53%E -8.42%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.91%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.26%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-04 13:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.83%EV -19.53%E -8.42%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.91%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.26%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-04 13:19 |
Маржа = Маржа · I = Подразумеваемая вероятность · NM = Вероятность без маржи · EV = Ожидаемая ценность · E = Преимущество · K = Критерий Келли · G = Рост капитала
Обновлено — время последнего изменения коэффициента каждой букмекерской конторой. Более раннее время означает лишь, что коэффициент не менялся, а не что он устарел. Конторы, от которых около 15 минут не поступали данные, обычно исключаются; последние зарегистрированные коэффициенты показываются только тогда, когда перестаёт обновляться весь поток данных по рынку.
Биржи ставок (5)
| Букмекерская контора | Хозяева | Гости | Ничья | Маржа ▲ | Обновлено |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.46% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01% | 0.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |