Idioma:Español
Athletic Club (MG) v Vila Nova
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Athletic Club (MG) (Local)
Predicción 34.68%2.88momio equitativo
EV -2.54%
Ventaja -0.902%
Kelly -1.40%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.81
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.81%34.77%34.55%37.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.322.582.622.8143.10%38.73%38.17%35.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Vila Nova (Visitante)
Predicción 34.31%2.91momio equitativo
EV -0.513%
Ventaja -0.177%
Kelly -0.270%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.84%34.22%34.37%36.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.732.712.9040.00%36.60%36.97%34.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 31.01%3.22momio equitativo
EV -3.87%
Ventaja -1.25%
Kelly -1.84%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.95%31.01%31.08%32.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.972.983.1035.71%33.66%33.56%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 34.68%; Vila Nova (Visitante): 34.31%; Empate: 31.01%. Para Vila Nova (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.91. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.90, con un valor esperado de -0.513%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.29%EV -2.54%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.42%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.29%EV -4.49%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.29%EV -2.54%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.42%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.29%EV -4.49%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -4.62%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 10:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -4.62%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -14.23%E -5.69%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-04 11:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.42%EV -4.96%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -4.63%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -7.59%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.42%EV -4.96%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -4.63%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -7.59%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 10:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.39%EV -7.72%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.36%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 13:16 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.59%EV -7.04%E -2.63%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.20%EV -7.03%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.21%EV -7.90%E -2.66%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 10:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 10:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 11:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 10:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 10:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.36%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-04 10:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.30%EV -8.78%E -3.34%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.13%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -9.13%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -10.80%E -4.16%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -10.69%E -3.71%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.45%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -10.69%E -3.71%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 10:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -11.55%E -4.53%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -9.78%E -3.72%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -9.78%E -3.72%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-04 10:38 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 17:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.85%EV -16.76%E -6.98%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -2.23%E -0.782%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-04 13:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.94%EV -18.49%E -7.87%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.84%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.94%EV -18.49%E -7.87%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.84%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-04 13:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 37.92%EV -19.18%E -8.23%K -14.42%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.83%EV -19.53%E -8.42%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.91%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.26%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-04 13:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.83%EV -19.53%E -8.42%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.91%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.26%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-04 13:19 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.46% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01% | 0.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |