StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Athletic Club (MG) v Vila Nova

Matchstart: 2026-09-04 23:30 UTC

Slutresultat: Athletic Club (MG) 5–0 Vila Nova

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

46 spelbolag (16 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Athletic Club (MG) (Hemma)

Prognos 34.68%2.88rättvist odds
EV -2.54%
Fördel -0.902%
Kelly -1.40%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 2.81

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
32.81%34.77%34.55%37.95%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.322.582.622.8143.10%38.73%38.17%35.59%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vila Nova (Borta)

Prognos 34.31%2.91rättvist odds
EV -0.513%
Fördel -0.177%
Kelly -0.270%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 2.90

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
31.84%34.22%34.37%36.09%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.502.732.712.9040.00%36.60%36.97%34.48%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Oavgjort

Prognos 31.01%3.22rättvist odds
EV -3.87%
Fördel -1.25%
Kelly -1.84%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 3.10

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
29.95%31.01%31.08%32.53%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.802.972.983.1035.71%33.66%33.56%32.26%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Athletic Club (MG) (Hemma): 34.68%; Vila Nova (Borta): 34.31%; Oavgjort: 31.01%. För Vila Nova (Borta) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 2.91. Inget kvalificerat spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån: bästa odds var 2.90, med väntevärdet -0.513%; det gav inget positivt väntevärde.

Spelbolagsodds (46 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemma ▼BortaOavgjortMarginalUppdaterat
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.29%EV -2.54%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.42%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.29%EV -4.49%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-04 13:30
BetUS🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.29%EV -2.54%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.42%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.29%EV -4.49%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-04 13:20
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -4.62%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-04 10:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -4.62%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -14.23%E -5.69%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-04 11:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.42%EV -4.96%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -4.63%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -7.59%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.42%EV -4.96%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -4.63%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -7.59%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 13:55
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 10:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 10:49
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.39%EV -7.72%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.36%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 13:16
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 10:40
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 10:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 10:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.35%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.17%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 10:40
1xBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.59%EV -7.04%E -2.63%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.20%EV -7.03%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.21%EV -7.90%E -2.66%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 13:25
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 10:40
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 10:39
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 10:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 11:40
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 10:49
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 10:50
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -8.09%E -3.05%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.36%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 10:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.30%EV -8.78%E -3.34%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 10:40
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.13%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-04 10:40
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -9.13%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -10.80%E -4.16%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -10.69%E -3.71%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-04 10:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 10:40
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 10:40
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.45%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-04 12:20
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -9.82%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -10.69%E -3.71%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-04 10:39
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -11.55%E -4.53%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 10:40
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -9.78%E -3.72%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-04 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -9.78%E -3.72%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-04 10:40
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-04 10:38
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -13.29%E -5.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-04 10:40
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 17:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 17:50
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 17:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 17:49
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 17:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -15.02%E -6.13%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -0.513%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 17:49
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.85%EV -16.76%E -6.98%K -11.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -2.23%E -0.782%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 13:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.94%EV -18.49%E -7.87%K -13.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.84%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-04 13:20
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.94%EV -18.49%E -7.87%K -13.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.84%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-04 13:19
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.92%EV -19.18%E -8.23%K -14.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-04 07:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.83%EV -19.53%E -8.42%K -14.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.91%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.26%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-04 13:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.83%EV -19.53%E -8.42%K -14.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.91%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.26%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-04 13:19
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (5)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaOavgjortMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Matchbook◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.46%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%0.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Smarkets◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86%1.2%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86%1.2%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86%1.2%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.86%1.2%2026-09-04 14:25