Language:English
Athletic Club (MG) v São Bernardo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Athletic Club (MG) (Local)
Prediction 42.21%2.37fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.63%42.36%42.06%43.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.152.3050.00%46.44%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
São Bernardo (Visit)
Prediction 26.30%3.80fair odd
EV +2.32%
Edge +0.596%
Kelly +0.802%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 3.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.37%26.11%26.36%27.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.483.483.8930.77%28.72%28.78%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.49%3.18fair odd
EV -0.811%
Edge -0.257%
Kelly -0.377%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.43%31.53%31.58%33.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.952.923.1535.71%33.92%34.25%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 42.21%; São Bernardo (Visit): 26.30%; Draw: 31.49%. For São Bernardo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.32%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.61%EV -4.61%E -2.04%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.75%EV +2.32%E +0.596%K +0.802%G +0.019% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.64%EV -7.11%E -2.41%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-23 22:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.30%EV -6.30%E -2.84%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV +1.27%E +0.329%K +0.444%G +0.006% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.30%EV -11.20%E -3.97%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.30%EV -6.30%E -2.84%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV +1.27%E +0.329%K +0.444%G +0.006% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.30%EV -11.20%E -3.97%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -9.25%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -1.36%E -0.364%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -8.68%E -2.99%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -2.68%E -0.724%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.11%E -2.41%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-23 22:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -2.68%E -0.724%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -11.83%E -4.23%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-23 22:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.38%EV -7.99%E -3.66%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -2.68%E -0.724%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.65%EV -10.89%E -3.85%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-23 22:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -13.47%E -6.57%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -2.68%E -0.724%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.64%EV -10.26%E -3.60%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.63%EV -2.92%E -1.27%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.67%EV -9.94%E -3.48%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-23 22:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -10.52%E -4.96%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -0.811%E -0.257%K -0.377%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -10.52%E -4.96%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -0.811%E -0.257%K -0.377%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -10.52%E -4.96%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -0.811%E -0.257%K -0.377%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -10.52%E -4.96%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -0.811%E -0.257%K -0.377%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -10.52%E -4.96%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -0.811%E -0.257%K -0.377%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -10.52%E -4.96%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -0.811%E -0.257%K -0.377%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -10.52%E -4.96%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -0.811%E -0.257%K -0.377%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.98%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.63%EV -8.05%E -2.76%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-23 22:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.98%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.63%EV -8.05%E -2.76%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-23 22:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.68%E -2.99%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-23 22:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -11.83%E -4.23%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -11.83%E -4.23%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -11.83%E -4.23%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -11.83%E -4.23%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.26%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -3.96%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-23 22:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -7.99%E -3.66%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -9.26%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -7.11%E -2.41%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-23 22:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.95%EV -7.99%E -3.66%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -9.26%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -8.68%E -2.99%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-23 22:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.03%E -2.24%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-23 22:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-23 22:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-23 22:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -7.14%E -3.25%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -7.11%E -2.41%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-23 22:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.25%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -8.68%E -2.99%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-23 22:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.25%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -8.68%E -2.99%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-23 21:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.25%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.31%E -3.23%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-23 22:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.25%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.31%E -3.23%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-23 22:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.99%EV -9.25%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.46%EV -9.63%E -3.35%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-23 22:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.99%EV -9.25%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.46%EV -9.63%E -3.35%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-23 22:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -13.47%E -6.57%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -8.68%E -2.99%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-23 22:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.96%EV -10.52%E -4.96%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -11.89%E -3.55%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -3.96%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-23 21:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.78%EV -13.47%E -6.57%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.79%EV -11.89%E -3.55%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.43%EV -3.96%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-23 22:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.69%EV -13.89%E -6.81%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.60%EV -11.89%E -3.55%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -9.25%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -13.20%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -8.68%E -2.99%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-23 22:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -9.25%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -13.20%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -8.68%E -2.99%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-23 22:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.75%EV -14.74%E -7.30%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.78%EV -13.20%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.46%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.78%EV -15.58%E -7.79%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -13.20%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.68%EV -7.11%E -2.41%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.78%EV -15.58%E -7.79%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -13.20%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.68%EV -7.11%E -2.41%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.25%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -14.52%E -4.47%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-23 22:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.04% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53% | 0.8% | 2026-07-23 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.04% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53% | 0.8% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.04% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53% | 0.8% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.04% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53% | 0.8% | 2026-07-23 22:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.11% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.59% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.30% | 1.5% | 2026-07-23 22:25 |