Athletic Club (MG) v São Bernardo

2026-07-23 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

44%

26%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Athletic Club (MG) (Local)

Prediction 44.10%2.27fair odd

EV -7.40%

Edge -3.52%

Kelly -6.72%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.93%44.10%44.10%44.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.982.062.102.1051%48%48%48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

São Bernardo (Visit)

Prediction 26.46%3.78fair odd

EV -6.07%

Edge -1.71%

Kelly -2.38%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.20%26.46%26.46%26.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.303.463.553.5530%29%28%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.45%3.40fair odd

EV -7.25%

Edge -2.30%

Kelly -3.37%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.45%29.45%29.45%29.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.953.083.153.1534%32%32%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Unibet	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -7.40%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.07%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-16 23:00
Casumo	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -7.40%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.07%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-16 23:00
Unibet (SE)	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -7.40%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.07%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-16 23:00
Unibet (NL)	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -7.40%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.07%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-16 23:00
betPARX	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -7.40%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.07%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-16 23:00
ATG (SE)	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -7.40%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.07%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-16 23:00
Svenska Spel	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -7.40%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.07%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-16 23:00
BetRivers	2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -8.72%E -4.21%K -8.15%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -8.72%E -2.53%K -3.56%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.72%E -2.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-07-16 23:00
Grosvenor	2.04I 49.02%NM 44.08%EV -10.04%E -4.92%K -9.66%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -10.04%E -2.95%K -4.18%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -10.19%E -3.34%K -4.97%G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-07-16 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)	2.02I 49.50%NM 43.93%EV -10.92%E -5.41%K -10.71%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 26.49%EV -11.37%E -3.39%K -4.84%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -11.66%E -3.89%K -5.83%G +0.000%	12.7%	2026-07-16 23:00
TABtouch	2.02I 49.50%NM 43.93%EV -10.92%E -5.41%K -10.71%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 26.49%EV -11.37%E -3.39%K -4.84%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -11.66%E -3.89%K -5.83%G +0.000%	12.7%	2026-07-16 23:00
Virgin Bet	1.98I 50.51%NM 44.03%EV -12.69%E -6.41%K -12.95%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 26.42%EV -12.69%E -3.84%K -5.52%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 29.55%EV -13.14%E -4.45%K -6.74%G +0.000%	14.7%	2026-07-16 23:00
LiveScore Bet	1.98I 50.51%NM 44.03%EV -12.69%E -6.41%K -12.95%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 26.42%EV -12.69%E -3.84%K -5.52%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 29.55%EV -13.14%E -4.45%K -6.74%G +0.000%	14.7%	2026-07-16 23:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.