Language:English
Vasco da Gama v Atletico Paranaense
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vasco da Gama (Local)
Prediction 52.05%1.92fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.862%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.79%52.01%52.10%53.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.791.801.8959.52%55.85%55.56%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Atletico Paranaense (Visit)
Prediction 20.14%4.97fair odd
EV +1.88%
Edge +0.372%
Kelly +0.464%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 5.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.10%20.20%20.09%21.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.564.605.0624.39%21.93%21.74%19.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.82%3.59fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.352%
Kelly -0.490%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.86%27.79%27.81%28.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.383.5532.26%29.70%29.63%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vasco da Gama (Local): 52.05%; Atletico Paranaense (Visit): 20.14%; Draw: 27.82%. For Atletico Paranaense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.97. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.88%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.12%EV -5.27%E -2.90%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.06I 19.76%NM 19.10%EV +1.88%E +0.372%K +0.464%G +0.009% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.78%EV -3.20%E -0.919%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-10 23:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -7.36%E -4.13%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.33%EV -2.34%E -0.483%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 23:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.48%EV -3.71%E -2.01%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.84%EV -3.35%E -0.698%K -0.882%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.68%EV -7.65%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.71%EV -7.88%E -4.45%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -3.35%E -0.698%K -0.882%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-10 23:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.49%EV -7.88%E -4.45%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -3.35%E -0.698%K -0.882%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.20%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 23:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.91%EV -5.27%E -2.90%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 4.77I 20.96%NM 19.81%EV -3.95%E -0.829%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.29%EV -7.09%E -2.12%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 23:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.02%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -4.36%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.88%EV -1.25%E -0.352%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 23:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.02%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -4.36%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.88%EV -1.25%E -0.352%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 23:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.02%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -4.36%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.88%EV -1.25%E -0.352%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 23:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.02%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -4.36%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.88%EV -1.25%E -0.352%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 23:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.99%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -4.36%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 21:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -4.36%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 23:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.18%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.78%EV -4.36%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.23%EV -3.71%E -2.01%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.56%EV -5.36%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -1.25%E -0.352%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.23%EV -3.71%E -2.01%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.56%EV -5.36%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -1.25%E -0.352%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-10 23:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.15%EV -5.79%E -3.20%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -5.36%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 22:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -7.36%E -4.13%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -5.36%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -7.36%E -4.13%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -5.36%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 23:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.56%EV -8.92%E -5.10%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -5.36%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.20%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.38%EV -1.63%E -0.862%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.88%EV -6.37%E -1.37%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.74%EV -2.64%E -0.754%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-10 23:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -7.38%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 20:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -7.38%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 23:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.05%EV -7.88%E -4.45%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -7.38%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -8.20%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-10 23:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -7.38%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-10 21:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -7.38%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-10 22:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -7.38%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-10 21:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -7.38%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-10 21:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.90%EV -5.79%E -3.20%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -9.39%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.03%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.90%EV -5.79%E -3.20%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -9.39%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.03%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.90%EV -5.79%E -3.20%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -9.39%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.03%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.90%EV -5.79%E -3.20%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -9.39%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.03%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 23:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.90%EV -5.79%E -3.20%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -9.39%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.03%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.90%EV -5.79%E -3.20%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -9.39%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.03%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 23:13 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.18%EV -6.83%E -3.82%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -9.39%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -4.03%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -9.39%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.20%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.11%EV -7.36%E -4.13%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -9.39%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -8.92%E -5.10%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -9.39%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -8.20%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-10 23:12 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -8.92%E -5.10%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -9.39%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-10 23:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -7.88%E -4.45%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -11.40%E -2.59%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.08%EV -8.92%E -5.10%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -11.40%E -2.59%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.08%EV -8.92%E -5.10%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -11.40%E -2.59%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-10 23:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.95%EV -10.48%E -6.09%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -11.40%E -2.59%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 27.75%EV -10.43%E -3.24%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-10 23:03 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.03%EV -9.96%E -5.76%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.69%EV -12.41%E -2.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -8.20%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-10 23:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.03%EV -9.96%E -5.76%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.69%EV -12.41%E -2.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -8.20%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-10 23:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -8.92%E -5.10%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -12.81%E -2.96%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -13.77%E -4.44%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-10 23:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -13.42%E -3.12%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 22:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.90%EV -8.40%E -4.77%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24%EV -13.42%E -3.12%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.86%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-10 22:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -14.43%E -3.39%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 22:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.93%EV -5.27%E -2.90%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -14.43%E -3.39%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-10 22:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 51.85%EV -12.56%E -7.48%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.50%EV -14.43%E -3.39%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.65%EV -12.38%E -3.93%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-10 23:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -15.43%E -3.67%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 22:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.61%EV -11.52%E -6.78%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.40%EV -17.45%E -4.25%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-10 22:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.88% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.88% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 23:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.88% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 23:24 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.88% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 23:24 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.43% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.76% | 0.9% | 2026-05-10 23:04 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.61% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.29% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.11% | 1.7% | 2026-05-10 23:19 |