Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo v Palmeiras

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 00:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prediction 35.43%2.82fair odd
EV +0.986%
Edge +0.346%
Kelly +0.533%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.29%35.42%35.40%36.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.622.622.8542.55%38.19%38.17%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palmeiras (Visit)

Prediction 33.18%3.01fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.601%
Kelly -0.908%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.05%33.32%33.19%35.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.792.802.9640.00%35.81%35.71%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.38%3.19fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -0.668%
Kelly -0.983%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.09%31.26%31.41%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.952.953.1238.46%33.94%33.90%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sao Paulo (Local): 35.43%; Palmeiras (Visit): 33.18%; Draw: 31.38%. For Sao Paulo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.986%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV +0.986%E +0.346%K +0.533%G +0.005%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.80%EV -12.07%E -4.55%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.91%EV -3.65%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 23:58
1xBet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.26%EV +0.277%E +0.098%K +0.152%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.26%EV -6.09%E -2.15%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.48%EV -3.34%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 23:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.09%EV -2.56%E -0.930%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.27%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.64%EV -4.28%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-22 00:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.09%EV -2.56%E -0.930%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.27%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.64%EV -4.28%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-21 23:59
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.70%EV -2.56%E -0.930%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.49%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.81%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 00:00
Pinnacle🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 35.42%EV -3.27%E -1.20%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.67%EV -1.78%E -0.601%K -0.908%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.91%EV -4.91%E -1.62%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 23:59
GTbets🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.49%EV -3.27%E -1.20%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.74%EV -10.07%E -3.72%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.77%EV -3.97%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 23:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.29%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.74%EV -3.44%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.97%EV -6.48%E -2.17%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 23:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.29%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.74%EV -3.44%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.97%EV -6.48%E -2.17%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 00:00
BetAnything🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.29%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.74%EV -3.44%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.97%EV -6.48%E -2.17%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 23:59
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 00:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 00:00
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 00:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 23:59
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 00:00
Bovada🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.19%EV -5.39%E -2.02%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.97%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 23:54
BetUS🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.19%EV -5.39%E -2.02%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.97%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 23:59
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.56%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 23:59
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 00:00
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 23:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 23:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 23:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.06%EV -8.67%E -2.98%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 23:58
Everygame🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.17%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 23:59
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 23:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.13%EV -6.81%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.00%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 00:00
LeoVegas🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.93%EV -6.81%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.40%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.67%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 00:00
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -4.43%E -1.54%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.97%EV -8.36%E -2.86%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 23:59
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -4.43%E -1.54%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.97%EV -8.36%E -2.86%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 00:00
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 23:59
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.51%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.41%EV -4.77%E -1.66%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 00:00
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -9.62%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 23:59
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -9.62%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 00:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -9.62%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 23:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -9.62%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 23:59
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.01%EV -4.77%E -1.66%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.56%EV -2.71%E -0.875%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 00:00
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.71%E -0.875%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 00:00
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.21%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.17%EV -2.08%E -0.668%K -0.983%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 00:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -2.71%E -0.875%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 00:00
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.74%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -4.28%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 23:59
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 00:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 00:00
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.19%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.70%EV -9.62%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-21 23:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -9.64%E -3.78%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -2.71%E -0.875%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 23:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.19%EV -9.64%E -3.78%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -4.28%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-21 23:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -9.64%E -3.78%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -10.41%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-21 23:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -9.64%E -3.78%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.26%EV -10.41%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.51%EV -10.56%E -3.70%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-21 23:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -9.64%E -3.78%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.26%EV -10.41%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.51%EV -10.56%E -3.70%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-22 00:00
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -11.42%E -4.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.41%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-21 23:59
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -11.42%E -4.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-21 23:59
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -11.42%E -4.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -12.13%E -4.33%K -6.74%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 00:00
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -11.42%E -4.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -13.70%E -4.98%K -7.83%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-21 23:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.89%EV -11.42%E -4.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.89%EV -17.04%E -6.82%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.22%EV -17.46%E -6.64%K -10.71%G +0.000%18.0%2026-03-21 23:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.16%EV -12.48%E -5.05%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.83%EV -9.74%E -3.58%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.01%EV -9.62%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-21 23:56
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.88%EV -13.19%E -5.38%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -13.72%E -5.28%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-21 23:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.62%EV -14.96%E -6.23%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.55%EV -10.41%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.84%EV -10.56%E -3.70%K -5.71%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-21 23:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 36.71%EV -15.31%E -6.41%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.50%EV -10.41%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.79%EV -10.56%E -3.70%K -5.71%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-22 00:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 35.39%EV -16.73%E -7.12%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.62%EV -15.38%E -6.03%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.99%EV -18.40%E -7.08%K -11.50%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-21 23:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%0.8%2026-03-22 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%0.8%2026-03-21 23:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.25%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%1.3%2026-03-21 23:59
Matchbook2.82I 35.46%NM 34.94%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.28%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.78%1.5%2026-03-22 00:00
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.25%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.41%2.0%2026-03-22 00:00
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 35.16%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.80%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.04%2.3%2026-03-22 00:00