L’École des cotes

Sao Paulo v Palmeiras

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-22 00:02 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prévision 35.43%2.82cote équitable
EV +0.986%
Avantage +0.346%
Kelly +0.533%
Croissance +0.005%

avec la cote maximale 2.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.29%35.42%35.40%36.71%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.352.622.622.8542.55%38.19%38.17%35.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Palmeiras (Visiteur)

Prévision 33.18%3.01cote équitable
EV -1.78%
Avantage -0.601%
Kelly -0.908%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.96

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.05%33.32%33.19%35.80%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.502.792.802.9640.00%35.81%35.71%33.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 31.38%3.19cote équitable
EV -2.08%
Avantage -0.668%
Kelly -0.983%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.12

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.09%31.26%31.41%32.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.602.952.953.1238.46%33.94%33.90%32.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Coolbet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV +0.986%E +0.346%K +0.533%G +0.005%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.80%EV -12.07%E -4.55%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.91%EV -3.65%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 23:58
1xBet2.83I 35.34%NM 34.26%EV +0.277%E +0.098%K +0.152%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.26%EV -6.09%E -2.15%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.48%EV -3.34%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 23:59
Svenska Spel2.75I 36.36%NM 35.09%EV -2.56%E -0.930%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.27%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.64%EV -4.28%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-22 00:00
ATG (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 35.09%EV -2.56%E -0.930%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.27%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.64%EV -4.28%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-21 23:59
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 34.70%EV -2.56%E -0.930%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.49%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.81%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 00:00
Pinnacle2.73I 36.63%NM 35.42%EV -3.27%E -1.20%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.67%EV -1.78%E -0.601%K -0.908%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.91%EV -4.91%E -1.62%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 23:59
GTbets2.73I 36.63%NM 34.49%EV -3.27%E -1.20%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.74%EV -10.07%E -3.72%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.77%EV -3.97%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 23:59
LowVig.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.29%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.74%EV -3.44%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.97%EV -6.48%E -2.17%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 23:59
BetOnline.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.29%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.74%EV -3.44%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.97%EV -6.48%E -2.17%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 00:00
BetAnything2.70I 37.04%NM 35.29%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.74%EV -3.44%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.97%EV -6.48%E -2.17%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 23:59
Casumo2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 00:00
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 00:00
betPARX2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 00:00
Unibet (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 23:59
DraftKings2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -4.33%E -1.60%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 00:00
Bovada2.67I 37.45%NM 35.19%EV -5.39%E -2.02%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.97%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 23:54
BetUS2.67I 37.45%NM 35.19%EV -5.39%E -2.02%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.97%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 23:59
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.56%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 23:59
Unibet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 00:00
Grosvenor2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 23:59
Unibet (NL)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 23:59
Codere (IT)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 23:59
Marathon Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.06%EV -8.67%E -2.98%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 23:58
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 35.17%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 23:59
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.10%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -7.42%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 23:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 35.13%EV -6.81%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.00%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 00:00
LeoVegas2.63I 38.02%NM 34.93%EV -6.81%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.40%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.67%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 00:00
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -4.43%E -1.54%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.97%EV -8.36%E -2.86%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 23:59
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -4.43%E -1.54%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.97%EV -8.36%E -2.86%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 00:00
Betway2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 23:59
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.51%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.41%EV -4.77%E -1.66%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 00:00
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -9.62%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 23:59
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -9.62%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 00:00
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -9.62%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 23:59
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.16%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -9.62%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 23:59
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.01%EV -4.77%E -1.66%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.56%EV -2.71%E -0.875%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 00:00
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.71%E -0.875%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 00:00
Bet Victor2.60I 38.46%NM 36.21%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.17%EV -2.08%E -0.668%K -0.983%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 00:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -2.71%E -0.875%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 00:00
Bet Right2.60I 38.46%NM 35.74%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -4.28%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 23:59
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 00:00
Tipico (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 00:00
TABtouch2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.87%E -3.03%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.19%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.70%EV -9.62%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-21 23:59
PointsBet (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -9.64%E -3.78%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -2.71%E -0.875%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 23:59
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.19%EV -9.64%E -3.78%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -4.28%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-21 23:59
Winamax (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -9.64%E -3.78%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -10.41%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-21 23:59
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -9.64%E -3.78%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.26%EV -10.41%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.51%EV -10.56%E -3.70%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-21 23:59
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -9.64%E -3.78%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.26%EV -10.41%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.51%EV -10.56%E -3.70%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-22 00:00
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -11.42%E -4.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.41%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -5.85%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-21 23:59
Fliff2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -11.42%E -4.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-21 23:59
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -11.42%E -4.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -12.13%E -4.33%K -6.74%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 00:00
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -11.42%E -4.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -8.75%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -13.70%E -4.98%K -7.83%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-21 23:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 33.89%EV -11.42%E -4.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.89%EV -17.04%E -6.82%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.22%EV -17.46%E -6.64%K -10.71%G +0.000%18.0%2026-03-21 23:54
Betclic (FR)2.47I 40.49%NM 36.16%EV -12.48%E -5.05%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.83%EV -9.74%E -3.58%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.01%EV -9.62%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-21 23:56
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.88%EV -13.19%E -5.38%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -13.72%E -5.28%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -8.99%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-21 23:59
Parions Sport (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.62%EV -14.96%E -6.23%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.55%EV -10.41%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.84%EV -10.56%E -3.70%K -5.71%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-21 23:59
Unibet (FR)2.39I 41.84%NM 36.71%EV -15.31%E -6.41%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.50%EV -10.41%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.79%EV -10.56%E -3.70%K -5.71%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-22 00:00
PMU (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 35.39%EV -16.73%E -7.12%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.62%EV -15.38%E -6.03%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.99%EV -18.40%E -7.08%K -11.50%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-21 23:59
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%0.8%2026-03-22 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%0.8%2026-03-21 23:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.25%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%1.3%2026-03-21 23:59
Matchbook2.82I 35.46%NM 34.94%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.28%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.78%1.5%2026-03-22 00:00
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.25%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.41%2.0%2026-03-22 00:00
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 35.16%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.80%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.04%2.3%2026-03-22 00:00