L’École des cotes

Sao Paulo v Chapecoense

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-12 23:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prévision 66.45%1.50cote équitable
EV -3.64%
Avantage -2.51%
Kelly -8.10%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.45

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
64.72%66.36%66.61%69.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.241.401.411.4580.65%71.65%70.92%68.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Chapecoense (Visiteur)

Prévision 12.83%7.79cote équitable
EV +9.09%
Avantage +1.07%
Kelly +1.21%
Croissance +0.110%

avec la cote maximale 8.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
11.32%12.86%12.63%14.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.007.247.408.5016.67%13.81%13.51%11.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 20.71%4.83cote équitable
EV +5.64%
Avantage +1.11%
Kelly +1.38%
Croissance +0.078%

avec la cote maximale 5.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.64%20.77%20.75%22.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.464.505.1025.00%22.40%22.22%19.61%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Coolbet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.81%EV -4.31%E -2.99%K -9.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.32%EV +9.09%E +1.07%K +1.21%G +0.110%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.87%EV -8.86%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-12 22:40
Pinnacle1.43I 69.93%NM 67.50%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%8.38I 11.93%NM 11.52%EV +7.55%E +0.900%K +1.02%G +0.077%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-12 22:50
BetOnline.ag1.41I 70.92%NM 67.53%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.54%EV +5.88%E +0.712%K +0.811%G +0.048%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.93%EV -5.75%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:35
LowVig.ag1.41I 70.92%NM 67.53%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.54%EV +5.88%E +0.712%K +0.811%G +0.048%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.93%EV -5.75%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:35
BetAnything1.41I 70.92%NM 67.53%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.54%EV +5.88%E +0.712%K +0.811%G +0.048%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.93%EV -5.75%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:35
Svenska Spel1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.00%EV +2.67%E +0.334%K +0.381%G +0.010%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.87%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 22:35
ATG (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.00%EV +2.67%E +0.334%K +0.381%G +0.010%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.87%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 22:35
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 66.74%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV +2.67%E +0.334%K +0.381%G +0.010%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.58%EV -10.31%E -2.38%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 22:45
1xBet1.37I 72.99%NM 69.39%EV -8.96%E -6.54%K -24.22%G +0.000%7.94I 12.59%NM 11.97%EV +1.90%E +0.239%K +0.274%G +0.005%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.64%EV +5.64%E +1.11%K +1.38%G +0.078%5.2%2026-03-12 22:55
Bovada1.41I 70.92%NM 66.72%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.14%EV -0.540%E -0.070%K -0.080%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.14%EV -7.82%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 22:55
BetUS1.41I 70.92%NM 66.72%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.14%EV -0.540%E -0.070%K -0.080%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.14%EV -7.82%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 22:54
DraftKings1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -5.64%E -3.97%K -13.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 22:35
Grosvenor1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
Unibet (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
Unibet1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
Casumo1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
Unibet (NL)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
betPARX1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
BetRivers1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 22:35
Fanatics1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 22:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -8.30%E -6.01%K -21.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -8.86%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 22:35
Tipico (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.24%EV -8.96%E -6.54%K -24.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 22:34
FanDuel1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-12 22:35
LeoVegas1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -8.86%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-12 22:35
TABtouch1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.93%EV -9.89%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-12 22:35
Virgin Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 66.94%EV -10.29%E -7.62%K -29.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -10.93%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-12 22:35
LiveScore Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 66.94%EV -10.29%E -7.62%K -29.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -10.93%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-12 22:35
Betsson1.43I 69.93%NM 65.37%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -5.03%E -0.680%K -0.786%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -11.96%E -2.82%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 22:45
NordicBet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.37%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -5.03%E -0.680%K -0.786%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -11.96%E -2.82%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 22:45
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.65%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.61%EV -5.03%E -0.680%K -0.786%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-12 22:40
GTbets1.41I 70.92%NM 66.52%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.37I 13.57%NM 12.73%EV -5.42%E -0.735%K -0.850%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 20.75%EV -6.37%E -1.41%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 22:35
Betway1.43I 69.93%NM 65.70%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 22:54
Codere (IT)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.16%EV -5.64%E -3.97%K -13.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 22:45
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.16%EV -5.64%E -3.97%K -13.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 22:45
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 65.06%EV -5.64%E -3.97%K -13.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -11.96%E -2.82%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 22:45
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -10.31%E -2.38%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-12 22:15
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 22:50
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 22:50
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 22:50
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 22:50
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 66.79%EV -11.62%E -8.74%K -35.21%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.69%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -10.31%E -2.38%K -3.10%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-12 22:35
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.64%E -3.97%K -13.42%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -13.37%E -1.98%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-12 22:50
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.23%EV -5.64%E -3.97%K -13.42%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -13.37%E -1.98%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -8.86%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 22:20
Fliff1.37I 72.99%NM 65.81%EV -8.96%E -6.54%K -24.22%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.46%EV -14.02%E -2.09%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -9.89%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-12 22:55
BetMGM1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -3.64%E -2.51%K -8.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 22:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -4.31%E -2.99%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 22:30
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -4.31%E -2.99%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 22:30
Bet Right1.43I 69.93%NM 64.72%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -8.86%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 22:50
Betclic (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.55%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.72%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.73%EV -10.93%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-12 22:50
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 65.23%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -13.00%E -3.10%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-12 22:35
PMU (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 66.63%EV -17.60%E -14.19%K -73.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 12.71%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.66%EV -17.14%E -4.29%K -5.71%G +0.000%21.0%2026-03-12 22:35
Unibet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 65.66%EV -10.95%E -8.17%K -32.22%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 13.64%EV -17.22%E -2.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.70%EV -11.96%E -2.82%K -3.68%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-12 22:55
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%EV -4.31%E -2.99%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -17.87%E -2.79%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 22:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%EV -4.31%E -2.99%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -17.87%E -2.79%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 22:30
Parions Sport (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 65.26%EV -10.29%E -7.62%K -29.40%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.77%EV -17.87%E -2.79%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.98%EV -13.00%E -3.10%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-12 22:45
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 65.59%EV -7.63%E -5.49%K -19.57%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -19.79%E -3.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-12 22:45
Winamax (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 64.81%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.69%EV -23.00%E -3.83%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.50%EV -10.93%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-12 22:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.46I 68.49%NM 68.41%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.61%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.98%0.1%2026-03-12 22:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.37%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.9%2026-03-12 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.37%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.9%2026-03-12 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.37%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.9%2026-03-12 22:50
Smarkets1.45I 68.97%NM 68.09%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.75%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%1.3%2026-03-12 22:50
Kalshi1.43I 69.93%NM 67.94%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.63%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%2.9%2026-03-12 22:50