La escuela de los momios

Sao Paulo v Chapecoense

Inicio: 2026-03-12 23:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sao Paulo (Local)

Predicción 66.45%1.50momio equitativo
EV -3.64%
Ventaja -2.51%
Kelly -8.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.72%66.36%66.61%69.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.241.401.411.4580.65%71.65%70.92%68.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Chapecoense (Visitante)

Predicción 12.83%7.79momio equitativo
EV +9.09%
Ventaja +1.07%
Kelly +1.21%
Crecimiento +0.110%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.32%12.86%12.63%14.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.007.247.408.5016.67%13.81%13.51%11.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.71%4.83momio equitativo
EV +5.64%
Ventaja +1.11%
Kelly +1.38%
Crecimiento +0.078%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.64%20.77%20.75%22.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.464.505.1025.00%22.40%22.22%19.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.81%EV -4.31%E -2.99%K -9.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.32%EV +9.09%E +1.07%K +1.21%G +0.110%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.87%EV -8.86%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-12 22:40
Pinnacle1.43I 69.93%NM 67.50%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%8.38I 11.93%NM 11.52%EV +7.55%E +0.900%K +1.02%G +0.077%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-12 22:50
BetOnline.ag1.41I 70.92%NM 67.53%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.54%EV +5.88%E +0.712%K +0.811%G +0.048%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.93%EV -5.75%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:35
LowVig.ag1.41I 70.92%NM 67.53%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.54%EV +5.88%E +0.712%K +0.811%G +0.048%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.93%EV -5.75%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:35
BetAnything1.41I 70.92%NM 67.53%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.54%EV +5.88%E +0.712%K +0.811%G +0.048%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.93%EV -5.75%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:35
Svenska Spel1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.00%EV +2.67%E +0.334%K +0.381%G +0.010%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.87%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 22:35
ATG (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.00%EV +2.67%E +0.334%K +0.381%G +0.010%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.87%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 22:35
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 66.74%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV +2.67%E +0.334%K +0.381%G +0.010%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.58%EV -10.31%E -2.38%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 22:45
1xBet1.37I 72.99%NM 69.39%EV -8.96%E -6.54%K -24.22%G +0.000%7.94I 12.59%NM 11.97%EV +1.90%E +0.239%K +0.274%G +0.005%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.64%EV +5.64%E +1.11%K +1.38%G +0.078%5.2%2026-03-12 22:55
Bovada1.41I 70.92%NM 66.72%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.14%EV -0.540%E -0.070%K -0.080%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.14%EV -7.82%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 22:55
BetUS1.41I 70.92%NM 66.72%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.14%EV -0.540%E -0.070%K -0.080%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.14%EV -7.82%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 22:54
DraftKings1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -5.64%E -3.97%K -13.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 22:35
Grosvenor1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
Unibet (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
Unibet1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
Casumo1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
Unibet (NL)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
betPARX1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:35
BetRivers1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 22:35
Fanatics1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 22:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -8.30%E -6.01%K -21.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -8.86%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 22:35
Tipico (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.24%EV -8.96%E -6.54%K -24.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 22:34
FanDuel1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-12 22:35
LeoVegas1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -8.86%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-12 22:35
TABtouch1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.93%EV -9.89%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-12 22:35
Virgin Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 66.94%EV -10.29%E -7.62%K -29.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -10.93%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-12 22:35
LiveScore Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 66.94%EV -10.29%E -7.62%K -29.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -3.75%E -0.500%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -10.93%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-12 22:35
Betsson1.43I 69.93%NM 65.37%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -5.03%E -0.680%K -0.786%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -11.96%E -2.82%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 22:45
NordicBet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.37%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -5.03%E -0.680%K -0.786%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -11.96%E -2.82%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 22:45
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.65%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.61%EV -5.03%E -0.680%K -0.786%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-12 22:40
GTbets1.41I 70.92%NM 66.52%EV -6.30%E -4.47%K -15.37%G +0.000%7.37I 13.57%NM 12.73%EV -5.42%E -0.735%K -0.850%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 20.75%EV -6.37%E -1.41%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 22:35
Betway1.43I 69.93%NM 65.70%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 22:54
Codere (IT)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.16%EV -5.64%E -3.97%K -13.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 22:45
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.16%EV -5.64%E -3.97%K -13.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 22:45
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 65.06%EV -5.64%E -3.97%K -13.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -11.96%E -2.82%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 22:45
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.97%E -4.98%K -17.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -10.31%E -2.38%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-12 22:15
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 22:50
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 22:50
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 22:50
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 22:50
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 66.79%EV -11.62%E -8.74%K -35.21%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.69%EV -10.16%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -10.31%E -2.38%K -3.10%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-12 22:35
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.64%E -3.97%K -13.42%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -13.37%E -1.98%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -6.79%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-12 22:50
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.23%EV -5.64%E -3.97%K -13.42%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -13.37%E -1.98%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -8.86%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 22:20
Fliff1.37I 72.99%NM 65.81%EV -8.96%E -6.54%K -24.22%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.46%EV -14.02%E -2.09%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -9.89%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-12 22:55
BetMGM1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -3.64%E -2.51%K -8.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 22:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -4.31%E -2.99%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 22:30
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -4.31%E -2.99%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 22:30
Bet Right1.43I 69.93%NM 64.72%EV -4.97%E -3.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -8.86%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 22:50
Betclic (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.55%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.72%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.73%EV -10.93%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-12 22:50
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 65.23%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -13.00%E -3.10%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-12 22:35
PMU (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 66.63%EV -17.60%E -14.19%K -73.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 12.71%EV -16.58%E -2.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.66%EV -17.14%E -4.29%K -5.71%G +0.000%21.0%2026-03-12 22:35
Unibet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 65.66%EV -10.95%E -8.17%K -32.22%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 13.64%EV -17.22%E -2.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.70%EV -11.96%E -2.82%K -3.68%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-12 22:55
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%EV -4.31%E -2.99%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -17.87%E -2.79%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 22:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%EV -4.31%E -2.99%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -17.87%E -2.79%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 22:30
Parions Sport (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 65.26%EV -10.29%E -7.62%K -29.40%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.77%EV -17.87%E -2.79%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.98%EV -13.00%E -3.10%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-12 22:45
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 65.59%EV -7.63%E -5.49%K -19.57%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -19.79%E -3.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-12 22:45
Winamax (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 64.81%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.69%EV -23.00%E -3.83%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.50%EV -10.93%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-12 22:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.46I 68.49%NM 68.41%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.61%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.98%0.1%2026-03-12 22:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.37%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.9%2026-03-12 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.37%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.9%2026-03-12 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.37%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.9%2026-03-12 22:50
Smarkets1.45I 68.97%NM 68.09%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.75%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%1.3%2026-03-12 22:50
Kalshi1.43I 69.93%NM 67.94%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.63%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%2.9%2026-03-12 22:50