Sao Paulo v Atletico Paranaense

2026-07-23 00:30 — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (10 in analysis)

Option 1: Sao Paulo (Local)

Odds

1.7258.14%Min

1.8554.06%Mean

1.8254.95%Median

1.9750.76%Max

Consensus probabilities

47.92%2.087Min

50.92%1.964Max

49.23%2.031Mean

49.22%2.032Median

49.20%2.033IQM

49.24%2.031Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.97 under the IQM model: 49.20%

EV -3.08%Edge -1.57%Kelly -3.18%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Atletico Paranaense (Visit)

Odds

3.5528.17%Min

4.0124.97%Mean

4.0025.00%Median

4.3622.94%Max

Consensus probabilities

21.67%4.614Min

23.65%4.228Max

22.45%4.455Mean

22.45%4.454Median

22.40%4.463IQM

22.39%4.466Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.36 under the IQM model: 22.40%

EV -2.31%Edge -0.531%Kelly -0.689%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

3.0033.33%Min

3.2231.08%Mean

3.2031.25%Median

3.4029.41%Max

Consensus probabilities

27.30%3.663Min

29.09%3.437Max

28.33%3.530Mean

28.32%3.531Median

28.40%3.521IQM

28.37%3.525Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.40 under the IQM model: 28.40%

EV -3.44%Edge -1.01%Kelly -1.43%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Sao Paulo (Local) ▼	Atletico Paranaense (Visit)	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet	1.97I 50.76% NM 48.79%EV -3.08% E -1.57% K -3.18% G +0.000%	4.27I 23.42% NM 22.51%EV -4.33% E -1.01% K -1.32% G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85% NM 28.69%EV -4.86% E -1.45% K -2.07% G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-07-04 11:55
Bovada	1.95I 51.28% NM 48.91%EV -4.07% E -2.09% K -4.28% G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26% NM 22.18%EV -3.66% E -0.851% K -1.11% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.90%EV -6.28% E -1.90% K -2.73% G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-28 23:07
Pinnacle	1.93I 51.81% NM 49.28%EV -5.05% E -2.62% K -5.43% G +0.000%	4.36I 22.94% NM 21.81%EV -2.31% E -0.531% K -0.689% G +0.000%	3.29I 30.40% NM 28.91%EV -6.57% E -2.00% K -2.87% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-26 00:30
Marathon Bet	1.91I 52.36% NM 48.83%EV -6.04% E -3.16% K -6.63% G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10% NM 22.47%EV -7.02% E -1.69% K -2.23% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 28.70%EV -7.70% E -2.37% K -3.42% G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-07-04 11:50
DraftKings	1.91I 52.36% NM 48.74%EV -6.04% E -3.16% K -6.63% G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81% NM 22.17%EV -5.90% E -1.40% K -1.84% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 29.09%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-06-29 03:29
Bet Right	1.91I 52.36% NM 48.63%EV -6.04% E -3.16% K -6.63% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 23.22%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.15%EV -6.28% E -1.90% K -2.73% G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-06-25 03:40
888sport (SE)	1.91I 52.36% NM 47.92%EV -6.04% E -3.16% K -6.63% G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64% NM 23.47%EV -12.62% E -3.24% K -4.35% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.60%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-07-02 16:50
888sport	1.91I 52.36% NM 47.92%EV -6.04% E -3.16% K -6.63% G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64% NM 23.47%EV -12.62% E -3.24% K -4.35% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.60%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-07-02 16:50
Mr Green (SE)	1.91I 52.36% NM 47.92%EV -6.04% E -3.16% K -6.63% G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64% NM 23.47%EV -12.62% E -3.24% K -4.35% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.60%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-07-02 16:50
William Hill	1.91I 52.36% NM 47.92%EV -6.04% E -3.16% K -6.63% G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64% NM 23.47%EV -12.62% E -3.24% K -4.35% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.60%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-07-02 16:50
SportsBet	1.90I 52.63% NM 50.06%EV -6.53% E -3.44% K -7.25% G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09% NM 21.97%EV -2.99% E -0.690% K -0.897% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 27.97%EV -3.44% E -1.01% K -1.43% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-06 22:09
Bet Victor	1.90I 52.63% NM 48.76%EV -6.53% E -3.44% K -7.25% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 23.16%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.08%EV -6.28% E -1.90% K -2.73% G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-07-04 10:03
Codere (IT)	1.87I 53.48% NM 49.44%EV -8.00% E -4.28% K -9.20% G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39% NM 22.55%EV -8.14% E -1.99% K -2.63% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.01%EV -6.28% E -1.90% K -2.73% G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-06-03 18:40
Tipico (DE)	1.87I 53.48% NM 49.27%EV -8.00% E -4.28% K -9.20% G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81% NM 21.94%EV -5.90% E -1.40% K -1.84% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.79%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-06-25 20:10
Paddy Power	1.85I 54.05% NM 49.22%EV -8.99% E -4.86% K -10.57% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.76%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 28.02%EV -7.70% E -2.37% K -3.42% G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-06-06 22:09
FanDuel	1.83I 54.64% NM 50.92%EV -9.97% E -5.45% K -12.01% G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26% NM 21.67%EV -3.66% E -0.851% K -1.11% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 27.41%EV -3.44% E -1.01% K -1.43% G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-06-03 22:59
BoyleSports	1.83I 54.64% NM 49.70%EV -9.97% E -5.45% K -12.01% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.74%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 27.56%EV -6.28% E -1.90% K -2.73% G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-06-30 10:49
LiveScore Bet	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:40
Grosvenor	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:40
LeoVegas	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:40
PMU (FR)	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:39
Unibet (NL)	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:40
Virgin Bet	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:40
LeoVegas (SE)	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:39
Casumo	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:39
Unibet (SE)	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:39
TABtouch	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:39
Unibet	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:39
Svenska Spel	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:39
ATG (SE)	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 03:40
BetRivers	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 06:40
betPARX	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.41%EV -10.46% E -5.75% K -12.76% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.38% E -2.60% K -3.46% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.10%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-25 08:59
Sky Bet	1.80I 55.56% NM 48.08%EV -11.45% E -6.36% K -14.31% G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67% NM 23.08%EV -15.98% E -4.26% K -5.81% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 28.85%EV -14.80% E -4.93% K -7.40% G +0.000%	15.6%	2026-06-06 22:08
Winamax (DE)	1.78I 56.18% NM 49.08%EV -12.43% E -6.98% K -15.94% G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03% NM 23.61%EV -17.10% E -4.62% K -6.33% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 27.30%EV -9.12% E -2.85% K -4.15% G +0.000%	14.5%	2026-06-03 18:40
Unibet (FR)	1.74I 57.47% NM 49.22%EV -14.40% E -8.28% K -19.46% G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03% NM 23.15%EV -17.10% E -4.62% K -6.33% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 27.63%EV -11.96% E -3.86% K -5.70% G +0.000%	16.8%	2026-06-03 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	1.73I 57.80% NM 47.14%EV -14.89% E -8.61% K -20.40% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 22.65%EV -19.34% E -5.37% K -7.44% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 30.21%EV -23.32% E -8.64% K -13.72% G +0.000%	22.6%	2026-06-06 22:09
Betclic (FR)	1.72I 58.14% NM 49.20%EV -15.38% E -8.94% K -21.37% G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03% NM 22.87%EV -17.10% E -4.62% K -6.33% G +0.000%	3.03I 33.00% NM 27.93%EV -13.95% E -4.60% K -6.87% G +0.000%	18.2%	2026-06-03 18:38
Winamax (FR)	1.72I 58.14% NM 48.82%EV -15.38% E -8.94% K -21.37% G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17% NM 23.65%EV -20.46% E -5.76% K -8.02% G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79% NM 27.53%EV -13.38% E -4.39% K -6.53% G +0.000%	19.1%	2026-06-03 18:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Sao Paulo (Local)	Atletico Paranaense (Visit)	Draw	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.95I 51.28%	3.30I 30.30%	3.35I 29.85%	11.4%	2026-07-05 10:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.95I 51.28%	3.30I 30.30%	3.35I 29.85%	11.4%	2026-07-05 10:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.95I 51.28%	3.30I 30.30%	2.50I 40.00%	21.6%	2026-07-05 10:15
Smarkets	1.76I 56.82%	2.42I 41.32%	2.60I 38.46%	36.6%	2026-07-05 10:35