Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Palmeiras v Atletico Paranaense

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 21:30 UTC

Final: Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico Paranaense

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Palmeiras (Local)

Prediction 59.80%1.67fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -6.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.42%59.83%59.71%61.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.551.551.6168.03%64.61%64.52%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Paranaense (Visit)

Prediction 15.37%6.51fair odd
EV +8.22%
Edge +1.17%
Kelly +1.36%
Growth +0.112%

assuming max odds 7.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.74%15.36%15.48%16.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.306.086.057.0418.87%16.45%16.53%14.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.83%4.03fair odd
EV +1.79%
Edge +0.437%
Kelly +0.578%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.57%24.82%24.82%26.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.773.794.1031.25%26.50%26.35%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palmeiras (Local): 59.80%; Atletico Paranaense (Visit): 15.37%; Draw: 24.83%. For Atletico Paranaense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.51. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.86%EV -4.92%E -3.09%K -8.33%G +0.000%7.04I 14.20%NM 13.74%EV +8.22%E +1.17%K +1.36%G +0.112%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.40%EV -5.41%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-19 21:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.56%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.87%EV -0.081%E -0.013%K -0.015%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%EV +1.79%E +0.437%K +0.578%G +0.010%3.5%2026-04-19 20:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.56%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.87%EV -0.081%E -0.013%K -0.015%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%EV +1.79%E +0.437%K +0.578%G +0.010%3.5%2026-04-19 20:50
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.43%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -0.081%E -0.013%K -0.015%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-19 21:05
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.74%EV -7.31%E -4.72%K -13.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.48%EV -0.081%E -0.013%K -0.015%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 21:23
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.89%EV -7.91%E -5.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -0.081%E -0.013%K -0.015%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 21:05
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.08%EV -3.72%E -2.31%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.48I 15.43%NM 14.93%EV -0.389%E -0.060%K -0.071%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.99%EV -3.92%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-19 21:20
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.52%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.88%EV -1.62%E -0.253%K -0.300%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.60%EV -7.64%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 16:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.94%EV -4.92%E -3.09%K -8.33%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.18%EV -3.46%E -0.551%K -0.656%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.88%EV -4.91%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-19 21:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.94%EV -4.92%E -3.09%K -8.33%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.18%EV -3.46%E -0.551%K -0.656%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.88%EV -4.91%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-19 21:25
BetAnything🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.94%EV -4.92%E -3.09%K -8.33%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.18%EV -3.46%E -0.551%K -0.656%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.88%EV -4.91%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-19 21:25
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -7.91%E -5.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV -3.92%E -0.628%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.93%E -0.489%K -0.655%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 20:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -7.91%E -5.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV -3.92%E -0.628%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.93%E -0.489%K -0.655%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 20:50
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -7.91%E -5.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV -3.92%E -0.628%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.93%E -0.489%K -0.655%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 20:50
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -7.91%E -5.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV -3.92%E -0.628%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.93%E -0.489%K -0.655%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 20:51
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -7.91%E -5.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV -3.92%E -0.628%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.93%E -0.489%K -0.655%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 20:50
betPARX🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -7.91%E -5.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV -3.92%E -0.628%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.93%E -0.489%K -0.655%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 20:50
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.08%EV -8.51%E -5.56%K -16.05%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -3.92%E -0.628%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -3.17%E -0.813%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 20:45
Everygame🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -7.31%E -4.72%K -13.29%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -3.92%E -0.628%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 21:10
GTbets🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.83%EV -5.52%E -3.49%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.21I 16.10%NM 15.22%EV -4.54%E -0.731%K -0.871%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.94%EV -5.90%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 14:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.20%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.25%EV -4.69%E -0.757%K -0.903%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.55%EV -4.41%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 21:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.39%EV -9.10%E -5.99%K -17.51%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.80%EV -4.69%E -0.757%K -0.903%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-19 20:30
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.94%EV -4.92%E -3.09%K -8.33%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.62%EV -6.23%E -1.02%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.44%EV -3.17%E -0.813%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-19 20:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.17%EV -9.70%E -6.42%K -19.02%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.14%EV -6.23%E -1.02%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -3.17%E -0.813%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-19 21:20
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.14%EV -10.30%E -6.87%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.04%EV -6.23%E -1.02%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -4.41%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 20:45
TABtouch🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.11%EV -10.90%E -7.31%K -22.24%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.93%EV -6.23%E -1.02%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 20:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.11%EV -10.90%E -7.31%K -22.24%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.93%EV -6.23%E -1.02%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 20:45
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -4.92%E -3.09%K -8.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.61%EV -4.41%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-19 21:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.55%EV -5.52%E -3.49%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 21:14
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.71%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 14:01
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.51%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 21:20
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.51%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 21:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.39%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.07%EV -7.64%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 21:10
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.82%EV -7.31%E -4.72%K -13.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 13:20
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -7.31%E -4.72%K -13.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -10.62%E -2.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 21:20
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -8.51%E -5.56%K -16.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -10.62%E -2.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 21:05
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -8.51%E -5.56%K -16.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -10.62%E -2.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 21:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -8.51%E -5.56%K -16.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -10.62%E -2.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 21:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -8.51%E -5.56%K -16.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -10.62%E -2.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 21:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.09%EV -12.09%E -8.23%K -25.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.97%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-19 20:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.09%EV -12.09%E -8.23%K -25.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.97%EV -7.77%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-19 20:50
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -5.52%E -3.49%K -9.51%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -9.30%E -1.58%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 21:00
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -5.52%E -3.49%K -9.51%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -9.30%E -1.58%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 21:05
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.73%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -11.61%E -2.02%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 13:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.73%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -11.61%E -2.02%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 13:10
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.56%EV -5.52%E -3.49%K -9.51%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -11.61%E -2.02%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -9.38%E -2.57%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 21:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.42%EV -7.31%E -4.72%K -13.29%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -11.61%E -2.02%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 13:10
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -8.51%E -5.56%K -16.05%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -11.61%E -2.02%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -13.10%E -3.74%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-19 21:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.61%EV -10.30%E -6.87%K -20.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -11.61%E -2.02%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.62%E -2.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-19 21:18
Unibet (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.89%EV -10.90%E -7.31%K -22.24%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.66%EV -12.38%E -2.17%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -9.38%E -2.57%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-19 21:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.83%EV -9.10%E -5.99%K -17.51%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.24%EV -13.92%E -2.49%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.93%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 21:15
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -15.45%E -2.81%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 13:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.42%EV -10.30%E -6.87%K -20.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.66%EV -15.45%E -2.81%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.92%EV -20.55%E -6.42%K -9.34%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-19 20:58
Winamax (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.00%EV -10.90%E -7.31%K -22.24%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.59%EV -18.53%E -3.50%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.42%EV -10.62%E -2.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-19 21:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%0.6%2026-04-19 21:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%0.6%2026-04-19 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%0.6%2026-04-19 21:25
Matchbook1.63I 61.35%NM 60.77%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.15%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%1.0%2026-04-19 21:25
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-04-19 21:25
Smarkets1.63I 61.35%NM 60.58%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.11%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.32%1.3%2026-04-19 21:25