Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Internacional v Vasco da Gama

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 21:30 UTC

Final: Internacional 4–1 Vasco da Gama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Internacional (Local)

Prediction 48.79%2.05fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.712%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.09%48.77%48.83%49.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.911.912.0255.87%52.32%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 22.92%4.36fair odd
EV +1.55%
Edge +0.350%
Kelly +0.451%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.42%22.89%22.88%24.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.044.004.4327.03%24.78%25.00%22.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.28%3.54fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.701%
Kelly -0.987%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.54%28.35%28.29%29.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.273.303.4534.72%30.55%30.30%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Internacional (Local): 48.79%; Vasco da Gama (Visit): 22.92%; Draw: 28.28%. For Vasco da Gama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.36. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.53%EV -4.37%E -2.23%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.91%EV +1.55%E +0.350%K +0.451%G +0.007%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-16 21:25
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.38%EV -4.37%E -2.23%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.15%EV +0.173%E +0.040%K +0.051%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.47%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-16 21:25
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.64%EV -7.29%E -3.84%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -0.744%E -0.172%K -0.223%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 21:16
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.35%EV -5.83%E -3.02%K -6.27%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.05%EV -0.973%E -0.225%K -0.293%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.60%EV -5.81%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 21:01
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.35%EV -5.83%E -3.02%K -6.27%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.05%EV -0.973%E -0.225%K -0.293%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.60%EV -5.81%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 21:00
BetAnything🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.35%EV -5.83%E -3.02%K -6.27%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.05%EV -0.973%E -0.225%K -0.293%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.60%EV -5.81%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 21:01
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -1.43%E -0.333%K -0.434%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 21:16
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.79%EV -9.73%E -5.26%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.42%EV -1.43%E -0.333%K -0.434%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 21:15
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.07%EV -4.85%E -2.49%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -3.72%E -0.887%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-16 20:51
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -4.85%E -2.49%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -3.72%E -0.887%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 21:25
Bovada🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%EV -6.32%E -3.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -3.72%E -0.887%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 21:22
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -3.72%E -0.887%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 21:21
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -3.72%E -0.887%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 21:25
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -3.72%E -0.887%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 21:25
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -7.29%E -3.84%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -3.72%E -0.887%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 21:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -7.29%E -3.84%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -3.72%E -0.887%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 21:25
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -3.72%E -0.887%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.08%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 20:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -7.29%E -3.84%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.51%EV -4.87%E -1.17%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 21:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.12%EV -1.44%E -0.712%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%EV -6.02%E -1.47%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17%EV -2.42%E -0.701%K -0.987%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-16 21:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.12%EV -1.44%E -0.712%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%EV -6.02%E -1.47%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17%EV -2.42%E -0.701%K -0.987%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-16 21:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.86%EV -5.83%E -3.02%K -6.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -6.02%E -1.47%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 21:10
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -7.29%E -3.84%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -6.02%E -1.47%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 21:20
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -6.02%E -1.47%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 21:00
GTbets🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.03%EV -2.90%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.60%EV -7.16%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.36%EV -4.68%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-16 19:05
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -4.85%E -2.49%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%EV -8.31%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 20:40
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -4.85%E -2.49%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -8.31%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.08%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 07:30
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -8.31%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 20:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -8.31%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 20:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.29%E -3.84%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -8.31%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 20:50
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -7.29%E -3.84%K -8.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -8.31%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -8.08%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 20:50
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -8.31%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 21:25
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -8.31%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 21:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -8.31%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 21:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -8.31%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 21:25
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -9.73%E -5.26%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -8.31%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 21:15
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -4.85%E -2.49%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -9.45%E -2.39%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 21:10
Casumo🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.30%EV -5.34%E -2.75%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.45%E -2.39%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 21:10
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.30%EV -5.34%E -2.75%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.45%E -2.39%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 21:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.30%EV -5.34%E -2.75%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.45%E -2.39%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 21:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.30%EV -5.34%E -2.75%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.45%E -2.39%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 21:10
betPARX🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.30%EV -5.34%E -2.75%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.45%E -2.39%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 21:10
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -6.32%E -3.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.45%E -2.39%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 20:40
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -6.32%E -3.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.45%E -2.39%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 20:40
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.83%E -3.02%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -10.60%E -2.72%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 21:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.78%EV -10.71%E -5.85%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -10.60%E -2.72%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.34%EV -10.90%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 21:10
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.09%EV -10.71%E -5.85%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.57%EV -10.60%E -2.72%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -15.15%E -5.05%K -7.57%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-16 21:14
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.94%EV -5.83%E -3.02%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -11.75%E -3.05%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 20:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.06%EV -6.32%E -3.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -11.75%E -3.05%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 20:45
LeoVegas🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -11.75%E -3.05%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 21:01
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.86%EV -9.25%E -4.97%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -11.75%E -3.05%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.54%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 21:10
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -6.81%E -3.56%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -12.89%E -3.39%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.08%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 07:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.23%EV -8.27%E -4.40%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -12.89%E -3.39%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -8.08%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-16 21:00
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.23%EV -8.27%E -4.40%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -12.89%E -3.39%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -8.08%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-16 21:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 48.59%EV -12.66%E -7.07%K -16.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.89%EV -12.89%E -3.39%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.52%EV -13.73%E -4.50%K -6.70%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-16 21:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.01%EV -8.76%E -4.68%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -14.04%E -3.74%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-16 21:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.01%EV -8.76%E -4.68%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -14.04%E -3.74%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-16 21:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.09%EV -10.71%E -5.85%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.98%EV -14.04%E -3.74%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.92%EV -18.54%E -6.44%K -9.86%G +0.000%16.0%2026-05-16 20:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.32%EV -11.20%E -6.15%K -13.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -15.19%E -4.10%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -10.90%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-16 21:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.39%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.69%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.92%0.2%2026-05-16 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-05-16 21:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-05-16 21:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-05-16 21:16
Smarkets1.98I 50.51%NM 49.65%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.85%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.50%1.7%2026-05-16 21:25
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-05-16 21:20