Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio v Santos

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 22:00 UTC

Final: Grêmio 3–2 Santos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 43.26%2.31fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.23%43.22%43.25%44.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.152.2350.00%46.68%46.51%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santos (Visit)

Prediction 27.72%3.61fair odd
EV +1.19%
Edge +0.327%
Kelly +0.450%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.64%27.76%27.72%28.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.383.403.6532.79%29.58%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.01%3.45fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -0.836%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.34%29.01%29.04%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.203.3533.33%31.28%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 43.26%; Santos (Visit): 27.72%; Draw: 29.01%. For Santos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.26%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.68%EV +1.19%E +0.327%K +0.450%G +0.005%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.07%EV -2.80%E -0.836%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-23 21:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.26%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.68%EV +1.19%E +0.327%K +0.450%G +0.005%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.07%EV -2.80%E -0.836%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-23 21:49
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.28%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.97%EV -2.13%E -0.605%K -0.844%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 21:39
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.42%EV -3.53%E -1.58%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.51%EV -2.41%E -0.685%K -0.957%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.08%EV -3.38%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 21:40
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.60%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.25%EV -2.41%E -0.685%K -0.957%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.15%EV -4.54%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-23 21:49
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.37%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 21:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.34%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.43%EV -5.99%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 21:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.34%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.43%EV -5.99%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 21:10
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 21:39
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:48
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:48
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:48
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:48
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:49
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:49
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 21:19
GTbets🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.87%EV -6.55%E -3.03%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.23%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.89%EV -4.83%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-18 01:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -4.35%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-23 21:49
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%EV -10.02%E -4.82%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -4.35%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.60%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 21:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.58%EV -7.42%E -3.47%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 21:49
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-23 21:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.14%EV -5.26%E -2.40%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-21 10:10
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 20:29
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.25%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 17:29
Bovada🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.06%EV -5.69%E -2.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:46
BetUS🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.06%EV -5.69%E -2.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:49
BetAnything🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.06%EV -5.69%E -2.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:49
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 21:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 21:39
TABtouch🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.25%EV -10.88%E -5.28%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -8.60%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-23 21:48
PMU (FR)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.25%EV -10.88%E -5.28%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -8.60%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-23 21:48
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -7.12%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-20 22:00
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -7.12%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-23 21:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.11%EV -11.75%E -5.76%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%EV -7.12%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-23 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.11%EV -11.75%E -5.76%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%EV -7.12%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-23 21:50
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 21:19
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 21:10
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 21:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 21:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 21:10
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 21:39
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.25%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 14:10
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 17:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 17:29
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -5.69%E -2.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 21:19
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -5.69%E -2.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 21:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 17:30
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-23 21:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.20%EV -10.45%E -5.05%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.77%EV -10.73%E -3.33%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.03%EV -10.64%E -3.45%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-23 21:39
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -11.28%E -3.53%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 17:30
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -11.28%E -3.53%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 21:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -11.28%E -3.53%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 21:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.45%EV -13.48%E -6.74%K -13.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.59%EV -12.67%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.97%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-23 21:38
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.86%EV -11.31%E -5.52%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -15.44%E -5.06%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-23 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%0.3%2026-05-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%0.3%2026-05-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.95%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-05-23 21:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.95%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-05-23 21:30
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.76%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-05-23 21:50
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.1%2026-05-23 21:50