Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Grêmio v Santos

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-23 22:00 UTC

Score final : Grêmio 3–2 Santos

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

54 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Grêmio (Local)

Prévision 43.26%2.31cote équitable
EV -3.53%
Avantage -1.58%
Kelly -2.87%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.23

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
42.23%43.22%43.25%44.52%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.002.142.152.2350.00%46.68%46.51%44.84%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Santos (Visiteur)

Prévision 27.72%3.61cote équitable
EV +1.19%
Avantage +0.327%
Kelly +0.450%
Croissance +0.005%

avec la cote maximale 3.65

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.64%27.76%27.72%28.88%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.053.383.403.6532.79%29.58%29.41%27.40%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 29.01%3.45cote équitable
EV -2.80%
Avantage -0.836%
Kelly -1.19%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.35

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.34%29.01%29.04%30.26%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.003.203.203.3533.33%31.28%31.25%29.85%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Grêmio (Local) : 43.26% ; Santos (Visiteur) : 27.72% ; Match nul : 29.01%. Pour Santos (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.61. 2 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 3.65, soit une espérance positive de +1.19%.

Cotes des opérateurs (54 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.26%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.68%EV +1.19%E +0.327%K +0.450%G +0.005%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.07%EV -2.80%E -0.836%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-23 21:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.26%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.68%EV +1.19%E +0.327%K +0.450%G +0.005%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.07%EV -2.80%E -0.836%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-23 21:49
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.28%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.97%EV -2.13%E -0.605%K -0.844%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 21:39
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.42%EV -3.53%E -1.58%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.51%EV -2.41%E -0.685%K -0.957%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.08%EV -3.38%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 21:40
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.60%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.25%EV -2.41%E -0.685%K -0.957%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.15%EV -4.54%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-23 21:49
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.37%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 21:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.34%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.43%EV -5.99%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 21:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.34%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.43%EV -5.99%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 21:10
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 21:39
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:48
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:48
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:48
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:48
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:49
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:49
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -2.97%E -0.847%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 21:19
GTbets🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.87%EV -6.55%E -3.03%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.23%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.89%EV -4.83%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-18 01:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -4.35%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-23 21:49
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%EV -10.02%E -4.82%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -4.35%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.60%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 21:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.58%EV -7.42%E -3.47%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 21:49
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-23 21:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.14%EV -5.26%E -2.40%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-21 10:10
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 20:29
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.25%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 17:29
Bovada🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.06%EV -5.69%E -2.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:46
BetUS🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.06%EV -5.69%E -2.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:49
BetAnything🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.06%EV -5.69%E -2.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:49
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 21:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 21:39
TABtouch🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.25%EV -10.88%E -5.28%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -8.60%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-23 21:48
PMU (FR)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.25%EV -10.88%E -5.28%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -8.60%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-23 21:48
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -7.12%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-20 22:00
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -7.12%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-23 21:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.11%EV -11.75%E -5.76%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%EV -7.12%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-23 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.11%EV -11.75%E -5.76%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%EV -7.12%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-23 21:50
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 21:19
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 21:10
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 21:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 21:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 21:10
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.51%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 21:39
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.25%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 14:10
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 17:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.82%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 17:29
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -5.69%E -2.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 21:19
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -5.69%E -2.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 21:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 17:30
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -9.90%E -3.05%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-23 21:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.20%EV -10.45%E -5.05%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.77%EV -10.73%E -3.33%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.03%EV -10.64%E -3.45%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-23 21:39
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -11.28%E -3.53%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 17:30
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -11.28%E -3.53%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 21:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.15%E -4.36%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -11.28%E -3.53%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 21:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.45%EV -13.48%E -6.74%K -13.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.59%EV -12.67%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.97%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-23 21:38
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.86%EV -11.31%E -5.52%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -15.44%E -5.06%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-23 21:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%0.3%2026-05-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%0.3%2026-05-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.95%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-05-23 21:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.95%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-05-23 21:30
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.76%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-05-23 21:50
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.1%2026-05-23 21:50