Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio v Fluminense

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 21:30 UTC

Final: Grêmio 1–1 Fluminense

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 27.72%3.61fair odd
EV +10.31%
Edge +2.59%
Kelly +3.46%
Growth +0.356%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.39%27.90%27.73%30.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.373.353.9832.79%29.68%29.85%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fluminense (Visit)

Prediction 43.06%2.32fair odd
EV +1.20%
Edge +0.509%
Kelly +0.886%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.74%42.92%43.08%46.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.162.152.3548.78%46.23%46.51%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.22%3.42fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.807%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.06%29.18%29.19%30.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.3333.33%31.40%31.25%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 27.72%; Fluminense (Visit): 43.06%; Draw: 29.22%. For Grêmio (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.98, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 24.39%EV +10.31%E +2.59%K +3.46%G +0.356%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.45%EV -10.00%E -4.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%EV -2.69%E -0.807%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-26 21:20
BetUS🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.99%EV -0.226%E -0.063%K -0.087%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.38%EV -3.54%E -1.58%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.63%EV -4.15%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-26 21:25
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -0.226%E -0.063%K -0.087%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 21:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.614%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -3.97%E -1.78%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.35%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 21:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.614%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -3.97%E -1.78%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.35%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 21:25
BetAnything🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.614%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -3.97%E -1.78%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.35%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 21:25
Pinnacle🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.66%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.65%EV -2.25%E -0.991%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.70%EV -4.73%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-26 21:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.02%EV -3.11%E -1.38%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.33%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-26 21:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.02%EV -3.11%E -1.38%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.33%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-26 21:25
betano_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-26 21:26
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-26 21:24
SportsBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -4.38%E -1.27%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.20%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 21:20
DraftKings🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -4.38%E -1.27%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.20%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 21:20
GTbets🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 27.65%EV -5.21%E -1.52%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.17%EV -5.69%E -2.60%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.18%EV -5.32%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 21:20
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 21:20
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 21:20
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 21:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 21:19
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 21:25
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 21:19
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 21:20
Everygame🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 21:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 21:25
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 21:20
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 21:25
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 21:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 21:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -6.32%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.79%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 21:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Casumo🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
betPARX🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 21:20
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 21:20
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -6.99%E -3.23%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 21:25
Bet Right🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 21:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 21:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 21:25
PlayUp🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 21:20
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:20
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.00%EV -0.096%E -0.041%K -0.072%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 19:20
Betr (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 21:25
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 21:25
PMU (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -8.71%E -4.11%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:25
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -8.71%E -4.11%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -8.71%E -4.11%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -11.72%E -5.72%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-26 21:19
Fliff🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.42%EV -11.72%E -5.72%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -10.87%E -3.56%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-26 21:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 27.93%EV -10.48%E -3.24%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.96%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 21:18
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -11.31%E -3.53%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 21:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -11.31%E -3.53%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 21:20
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.31%E -3.53%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-26 21:20
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -15.47%E -5.07%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV +1.20%E +0.509%K +0.886%G +0.011%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 21:05
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -15.47%E -5.07%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -11.72%E -5.72%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -10.87%E -3.56%K -5.30%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-26 21:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-07-26 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-07-26 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-07-26 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-07-26 21:25
Smarkets3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-07-26 21:25
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.70%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%3.1%2026-07-26 21:20