The School of Odds

Grêmio v Fluminense

2026-07-26 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 35.66%2.80fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.80%35.59%35.64%36.92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.302.562.622.7243%39%38%37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Fluminense (Visit)

Prediction 35.59%2.81fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.41%35.57%35.64%36.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.572.602.7342%39%38%37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.75%3.48fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.661%
Kelly -0.936%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.78%28.84%28.73%30.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.953.163.203.4034%32%31%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.72I 36.76%NM 35.30%EV -3.02%E -1.11%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.17%EV -2.83%E -1.04%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.54%EV -6.56%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 18:54
Coolbet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -5.51%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -2.25%E -0.661%K -0.936%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 15:19
SportsBet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -5.51%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -7.46%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.25%E -0.661%K -0.936%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 15:19
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -5.51%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -7.46%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.25%E -0.661%K -0.936%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 15:19
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -5.51%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -7.46%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -5.12%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 15:44
Marathon Bet2.64I 37.88%NM 35.31%EV -5.87%E -2.22%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.50%EV -9.15%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 18:49
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -6.58%E -2.51%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -6.74%E -2.57%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.56%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 17:44
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -6.58%E -2.51%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -6.74%E -2.57%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.56%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 17:44
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.58%E -2.51%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.74%E -2.57%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-17 15:34
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.58%E -2.51%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.74%E -2.57%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-17 15:35
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.58%E -2.51%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.74%E -2.57%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-17 15:34
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.58%E -2.51%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.74%E -2.57%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-17 15:34
Bet Right2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -7.46%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.56%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 15:19
betfred_uk2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -11.02%E -4.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-17 15:19
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -9.08%E -3.56%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-17 15:19
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -9.08%E -3.56%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.46%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-17 19:04
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.86%E -4.34%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.02%E -4.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -6.56%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-17 15:24
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 35.24%EV -12.64%E -5.16%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.98%EV -14.58%E -6.07%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.87%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-17 15:19
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 36.80%EV -16.21%E -6.90%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.30%EV -12.80%E -5.22%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.90%EV -10.87%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-17 15:19
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 36.72%EV -16.21%E -6.90%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.52%EV -11.02%E -4.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.76%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.87%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-17 15:19
Betclic (FR)2.33I 42.92%NM 36.92%EV -16.92%E -7.26%K -12.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.41%EV -11.02%E -4.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.67%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.87%G +0.000%16.3%2026-07-17 15:19
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 36.52%EV -17.99%E -7.82%K -13.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.00%EV -14.58%E -6.07%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.48%EV -15.18%E -5.15%K -7.79%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-17 15:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.