Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio v Fluminense

Inicio: 2026-07-26 21:30 UTC

Final: Grêmio 1–1 Fluminense

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio (Local)

Predicción 27.72%3.61momio equitativo
EV +10.31%
Ventaja +2.59%
Kelly +3.46%
Crecimiento +0.356%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.98

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.39%27.90%27.73%30.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.373.353.9832.79%29.68%29.85%25.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Fluminense (Visitante)

Predicción 43.06%2.32momio equitativo
EV +1.20%
Ventaja +0.509%
Kelly +0.886%
Crecimiento +0.011%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.74%42.92%43.08%46.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.162.152.3548.78%46.23%46.51%42.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.22%3.42momio equitativo
EV -2.69%
Ventaja -0.807%
Kelly -1.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.06%29.18%29.19%30.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.183.203.3333.33%31.40%31.25%30.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Grêmio (Local): 27.72%; Fluminense (Visitante): 43.06%; Empate: 29.22%. Para Grêmio (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.61. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.98, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +10.31%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 24.39%EV +10.31%E +2.59%K +3.46%G +0.356%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.45%EV -10.00%E -4.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%EV -2.69%E -0.807%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-26 21:20
BetUS🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.99%EV -0.226%E -0.063%K -0.087%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.38%EV -3.54%E -1.58%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.63%EV -4.15%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-26 21:25
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -0.226%E -0.063%K -0.087%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 21:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.614%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -3.97%E -1.78%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.35%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 21:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.614%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -3.97%E -1.78%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.35%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 21:25
BetAnything🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.614%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -3.97%E -1.78%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.35%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 21:25
Pinnacle🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.66%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.65%EV -2.25%E -0.991%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.70%EV -4.73%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-26 21:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.02%EV -3.11%E -1.38%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.33%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-26 21:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.02%EV -3.11%E -1.38%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.33%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-26 21:25
betano_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-26 21:26
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-26 21:24
SportsBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -4.38%E -1.27%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.20%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 21:20
DraftKings🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -4.38%E -1.27%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.20%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 21:20
GTbets🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 27.65%EV -5.21%E -1.52%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.17%EV -5.69%E -2.60%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.18%EV -5.32%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 21:20
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 21:20
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 21:20
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 21:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 21:19
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 21:25
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 21:19
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 21:20
Everygame🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 21:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 21:25
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 21:20
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 21:25
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 21:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 21:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -6.32%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.79%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 21:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Casumo🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
betPARX🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 21:20
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 21:20
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -6.99%E -3.23%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 21:25
Bet Right🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 21:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 21:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 21:25
PlayUp🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 21:20
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:20
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.00%EV -0.096%E -0.041%K -0.072%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 19:20
Betr (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 21:25
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 21:25
PMU (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -8.71%E -4.11%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:25
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -8.71%E -4.11%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -8.71%E -4.11%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -11.72%E -5.72%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-26 21:19
Fliff🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.42%EV -11.72%E -5.72%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -10.87%E -3.56%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-26 21:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 27.93%EV -10.48%E -3.24%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.96%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 21:18
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -11.31%E -3.53%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 21:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -11.31%E -3.53%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 21:20
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.31%E -3.53%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-26 21:20
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -15.47%E -5.07%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV +1.20%E +0.509%K +0.886%G +0.011%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 21:05
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -15.47%E -5.07%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -11.72%E -5.72%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -10.87%E -3.56%K -5.30%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-26 21:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-07-26 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-07-26 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-07-26 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-07-26 21:25
Smarkets3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-07-26 21:25
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.70%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%3.1%2026-07-26 21:20