Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio v Fluminense

Início: 2026-07-26 21:30 UTC

Final: Grêmio 1–1 Fluminense

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio (Local)

Previsão 27.72%3.61odd justa
EV +10.31%
Vantagem +2.59%
Kelly +3.46%
Crescimento +0.356%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.98

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.39%27.90%27.73%30.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.053.373.353.9832.79%29.68%29.85%25.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Fluminense (Visitante)

Previsão 43.06%2.32odd justa
EV +1.20%
Vantagem +0.509%
Kelly +0.886%
Crescimento +0.011%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.74%42.92%43.08%46.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.052.162.152.3548.78%46.23%46.51%42.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.22%3.42odd justa
EV -2.69%
Vantagem -0.807%
Kelly -1.15%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.33

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.06%29.18%29.19%30.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.183.203.3333.33%31.40%31.25%30.03%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Grêmio (Local): 27.72%; Fluminense (Visitante): 43.06%; Empate: 29.22%. Para Grêmio (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.61. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.98, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +10.31%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 24.39%EV +10.31%E +2.59%K +3.46%G +0.356%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.45%EV -10.00%E -4.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%EV -2.69%E -0.807%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-26 21:20
BetUS🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.99%EV -0.226%E -0.063%K -0.087%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.38%EV -3.54%E -1.58%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.63%EV -4.15%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-26 21:25
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -0.226%E -0.063%K -0.087%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 21:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.614%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -3.97%E -1.78%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.35%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 21:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.614%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -3.97%E -1.78%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.35%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 21:25
BetAnything🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.614%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -3.97%E -1.78%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.35%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 21:25
Pinnacle🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.66%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.65%EV -2.25%E -0.991%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.70%EV -4.73%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-26 21:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.02%EV -3.11%E -1.38%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.33%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-26 21:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.02%EV -3.11%E -1.38%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.33%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-26 21:25
betano_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-26 21:26
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.00%E -0.856%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-26 21:24
SportsBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -4.38%E -1.27%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.20%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 21:20
DraftKings🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -4.38%E -1.27%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.20%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 21:20
GTbets🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 27.65%EV -5.21%E -1.52%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.17%EV -5.69%E -2.60%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.18%EV -5.32%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 21:20
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 21:20
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 21:20
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 21:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 21:19
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 21:25
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 21:19
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 21:20
Everygame🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 21:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 21:25
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 21:20
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 21:25
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 21:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 21:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -6.32%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.79%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 21:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Casumo🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
betPARX🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 21:25
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 21:20
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 21:20
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -7.15%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -6.99%E -3.23%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 21:25
Bet Right🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 21:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 21:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 21:25
PlayUp🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 21:20
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:20
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.00%EV -0.096%E -0.041%K -0.072%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 19:20
Betr (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 21:25
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 21:25
PMU (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -8.71%E -4.11%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:25
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -8.71%E -4.11%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -8.71%E -4.11%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 21:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -11.72%E -5.72%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-26 21:19
Fliff🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -9.93%E -3.05%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.42%EV -11.72%E -5.72%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -10.87%E -3.56%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-26 21:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 27.93%EV -10.48%E -3.24%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.96%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 21:18
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -11.31%E -3.53%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 21:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -11.31%E -3.53%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 21:20
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.31%E -3.53%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-26 21:20
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -15.47%E -5.07%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV +1.20%E +0.509%K +0.886%G +0.011%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 21:05
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -15.47%E -5.07%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -11.72%E -5.72%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -10.87%E -3.56%K -5.30%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-26 21:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-07-26 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-07-26 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-07-26 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-07-26 21:25
Smarkets3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-07-26 21:25
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.70%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%3.1%2026-07-26 21:20