Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio v Chapecoense

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 21:30 UTC

Final: Grêmio 3–1 Chapecoense

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 61.00%1.64fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.59%60.96%60.99%63.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.521.531.6169.44%65.80%65.36%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chapecoense (Visit)

Prediction 15.60%6.41fair odd
EV +9.21%
Edge +1.32%
Kelly +1.54%
Growth +0.141%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.68%15.50%15.66%16.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.306.066.007.0018.87%16.51%16.67%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.40%4.27fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.411%
Kelly -0.540%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.65%23.54%23.35%25.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.954.004.2027.78%25.32%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 61.00%; Chapecoense (Visit): 15.60%; Draw: 23.40%. For Chapecoense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.41. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.98%EV -7.28%E -4.79%K -14.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.68%EV +9.21%E +1.32%K +1.54%G +0.141%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.35%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 21:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.70%EV -6.06%E -3.94%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV +5.31%E +0.787%K +0.924%G +0.049%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -1.73%E -0.411%K -0.540%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 21:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.70%EV -6.06%E -3.94%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV +5.31%E +0.787%K +0.924%G +0.049%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -1.73%E -0.411%K -0.540%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 21:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -11.55%E -7.97%K -25.67%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.71%EV +4.53%E +0.676%K +0.795%G +0.036%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 21:00
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.85%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.63I 15.08%NM 14.55%EV +3.44%E +0.519%K +0.611%G +0.021%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.59%EV -4.30%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 21:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.82%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.84%EV +1.41%E +0.217%K +0.257%G +0.004%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.35%EV -3.37%E -0.815%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-30 21:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.82%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.84%EV +1.41%E +0.217%K +0.257%G +0.004%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.35%EV -3.37%E -0.815%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-30 21:19
BetAnything🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.82%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.84%EV +1.41%E +0.217%K +0.257%G +0.004%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.35%EV -3.37%E -0.815%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-30 21:19
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -9.72%E -6.57%K -20.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +1.41%E +0.217%K +0.257%G +0.004%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 21:25
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.24%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.17%EV -1.71%E -0.271%K -0.322%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.59%EV -5.24%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 21:20
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.28%EV -3.62%E -2.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.12%EV -1.71%E -0.271%K -0.322%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.61%EV -9.45%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 15:55
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.64%EV -5.45%E -3.52%K -9.91%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.67%EV -1.71%E -0.271%K -0.322%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -15.77%E -4.38%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 21:25
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.61%EV -7.28%E -4.79%K -14.00%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.98%EV -2.49%E -0.398%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 21:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -2.49%E -0.398%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:25
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -2.49%E -0.398%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:25
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -2.49%E -0.398%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -2.49%E -0.398%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:25
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -2.49%E -0.398%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.97%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.42%EV -5.61%E -0.927%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -7.58%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:25
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.22%EV -1.79%E -1.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.03I 16.58%NM 16.08%EV -5.92%E -0.982%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.70%EV -4.30%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-30 21:19
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.96%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 14:24
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-30 20:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.26%EV -6.06%E -3.94%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 21:19
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 20:55
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 21:18
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 21:20
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.06%E -3.94%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 21:18
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.06%E -3.94%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 21:19
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 21:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -7.28%E -4.79%K -14.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 21:05
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.82%EV -5.45%E -3.52%K -9.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -12.26%E -3.27%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 20:40
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.62%EV -5.45%E -3.52%K -9.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -13.43%E -3.63%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 19:50
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.50%E -5.67%K -17.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 21:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.50%E -5.67%K -17.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 21:05
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.50%E -5.67%K -17.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 21:14
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -8.50%E -5.67%K -17.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 20:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -12.16%E -8.44%K -27.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -8.75%E -2.24%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 21:25
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.77%EV -12.16%E -8.44%K -27.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-30 20:50
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.58%EV -12.16%E -8.44%K -27.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.78%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.65%EV -12.26%E -3.27%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 21:25
GTbets🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.98%EV -5.45%E -3.52%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.94I 16.84%NM 15.91%EV -7.33%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.11%EV -4.30%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-30 21:25
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.59%EV -3.62%E -2.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.69%EV -7.95%E -1.35%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -15.77%E -4.38%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 21:19
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.01%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -9.51%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 21:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.80%EV -9.72%E -6.57%K -20.25%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.52%EV -9.51%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 21:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.80%EV -9.72%E -6.57%K -20.25%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.52%EV -9.51%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 21:25
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -4.23%E -2.69%K -7.42%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -10.29%E -1.79%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.12%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 20:44
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.29%E -1.79%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 21:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.29%E -1.79%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 21:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.29%E -1.79%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 21:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.86%EV -10.94%E -7.49%K -23.78%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.45%EV -10.29%E -1.79%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -12.26%E -3.27%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-30 21:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.86%EV -10.94%E -7.49%K -23.78%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.45%EV -10.29%E -1.79%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -12.26%E -3.27%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-30 21:25
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.67%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -12.63%E -2.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 21:00
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.99%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.18%EV -12.63%E -2.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 20:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.65%EV -9.72%E -6.57%K -20.25%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.03%EV -12.63%E -2.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -9.92%E -2.58%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-30 21:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.50%E -5.67%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -14.19%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 21:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.62%EV -10.94%E -7.49%K -23.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.09%EV -14.19%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.29%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 21:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.46%EV -9.72%E -6.57%K -20.25%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.88%EV -17.31%E -3.27%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.65%EV -7.58%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 21:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.58I 63.29%NM 63.25%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.51%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.24%0.1%2026-08-30 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.15%0.5%2026-08-30 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.15%0.5%2026-08-30 21:25
Kalshi1.59I 62.89%NM 62.35%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.86%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.79%0.9%2026-08-30 21:00
Matchbook1.58I 63.29%NM 62.67%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.75%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58%1.0%2026-08-30 21:25
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 62.97%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.64%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%1.8%2026-08-30 21:25