Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio v Chapecoense

Início: 2026-08-30 21:30 UTC

Final: Grêmio 3–1 Chapecoense

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio (Local)

Previsão 61.00%1.64odd justa
EV -1.79%
Vantagem -1.11%
Kelly -2.93%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.61

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
58.59%60.96%60.99%63.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.441.521.531.6169.44%65.80%65.36%62.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Chapecoense (Visitante)

Previsão 15.60%6.41odd justa
EV +9.21%
Vantagem +1.32%
Kelly +1.54%
Crescimento +0.141%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
13.68%15.50%15.66%16.88%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.306.066.007.0018.87%16.51%16.67%14.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 23.40%4.27odd justa
EV -1.73%
Vantagem -0.411%
Kelly -0.540%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.65%23.54%23.35%25.72%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.603.954.004.2027.78%25.32%25.00%23.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Grêmio (Local): 61.00%; Chapecoense (Visitante): 15.60%; Empate: 23.40%. Para Chapecoense (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.41. 9 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 7.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +9.21%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.98%EV -7.28%E -4.79%K -14.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.68%EV +9.21%E +1.32%K +1.54%G +0.141%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.35%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 21:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.70%EV -6.06%E -3.94%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV +5.31%E +0.787%K +0.924%G +0.049%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -1.73%E -0.411%K -0.540%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 21:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.70%EV -6.06%E -3.94%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV +5.31%E +0.787%K +0.924%G +0.049%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -1.73%E -0.411%K -0.540%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 21:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -11.55%E -7.97%K -25.67%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.71%EV +4.53%E +0.676%K +0.795%G +0.036%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 21:00
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.85%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.63I 15.08%NM 14.55%EV +3.44%E +0.519%K +0.611%G +0.021%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.59%EV -4.30%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 21:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.82%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.84%EV +1.41%E +0.217%K +0.257%G +0.004%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.35%EV -3.37%E -0.815%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-30 21:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.82%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.84%EV +1.41%E +0.217%K +0.257%G +0.004%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.35%EV -3.37%E -0.815%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-30 21:19
BetAnything🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.82%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.84%EV +1.41%E +0.217%K +0.257%G +0.004%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.35%EV -3.37%E -0.815%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-30 21:19
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -9.72%E -6.57%K -20.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +1.41%E +0.217%K +0.257%G +0.004%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 21:25
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.24%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.17%EV -1.71%E -0.271%K -0.322%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.59%EV -5.24%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 21:20
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.28%EV -3.62%E -2.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.12%EV -1.71%E -0.271%K -0.322%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.61%EV -9.45%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 15:55
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.64%EV -5.45%E -3.52%K -9.91%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.67%EV -1.71%E -0.271%K -0.322%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -15.77%E -4.38%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 21:25
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.61%EV -7.28%E -4.79%K -14.00%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.98%EV -2.49%E -0.398%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 21:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -2.49%E -0.398%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:25
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -2.49%E -0.398%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:25
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -2.49%E -0.398%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -2.49%E -0.398%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:25
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -2.49%E -0.398%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.97%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.42%EV -5.61%E -0.927%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -7.58%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:25
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.22%EV -1.79%E -1.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.03I 16.58%NM 16.08%EV -5.92%E -0.982%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.70%EV -4.30%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-30 21:19
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.96%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 14:24
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.84%E -3.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-30 20:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.26%EV -6.06%E -3.94%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 21:19
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 20:55
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 21:18
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 21:20
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.06%E -3.94%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 21:18
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.06%E -3.94%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 21:19
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 21:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -7.28%E -4.79%K -14.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 21:05
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.82%EV -5.45%E -3.52%K -9.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -12.26%E -3.27%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 20:40
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.62%EV -5.45%E -3.52%K -9.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -13.43%E -3.63%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 19:50
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.50%E -5.67%K -17.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 21:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.50%E -5.67%K -17.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 21:05
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.50%E -5.67%K -17.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 21:14
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -8.50%E -5.67%K -17.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 20:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -12.16%E -8.44%K -27.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -8.75%E -2.24%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 21:25
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.77%EV -12.16%E -8.44%K -27.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-30 20:50
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.58%EV -12.16%E -8.44%K -27.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.78%EV -6.39%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.65%EV -12.26%E -3.27%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 21:25
GTbets🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.98%EV -5.45%E -3.52%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.94I 16.84%NM 15.91%EV -7.33%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.11%EV -4.30%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-30 21:25
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.59%EV -3.62%E -2.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.69%EV -7.95%E -1.35%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -15.77%E -4.38%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 21:19
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.01%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -9.51%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 21:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.80%EV -9.72%E -6.57%K -20.25%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.52%EV -9.51%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 21:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.80%EV -9.72%E -6.57%K -20.25%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.52%EV -9.51%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 21:25
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -4.23%E -2.69%K -7.42%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -10.29%E -1.79%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.12%EV -4.07%E -0.992%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 20:44
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.29%E -1.79%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 21:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.29%E -1.79%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 21:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.29%E -1.79%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 21:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.86%EV -10.94%E -7.49%K -23.78%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.45%EV -10.29%E -1.79%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -12.26%E -3.27%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-30 21:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.86%EV -10.94%E -7.49%K -23.78%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.45%EV -10.29%E -1.79%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -12.26%E -3.27%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-30 21:25
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.67%EV -6.67%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -12.63%E -2.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 21:00
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.99%EV -7.89%E -5.23%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.18%EV -12.63%E -2.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 20:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.65%EV -9.72%E -6.57%K -20.25%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.03%EV -12.63%E -2.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -9.92%E -2.58%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-30 21:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.50%E -5.67%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -14.19%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 21:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.62%EV -10.94%E -7.49%K -23.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.09%EV -14.19%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.29%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 21:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.46%EV -9.72%E -6.57%K -20.25%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.88%EV -17.31%E -3.27%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.65%EV -7.58%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 21:19
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.25%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.51%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.24%0.1%2026-08-30 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.15%0.5%2026-08-30 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.15%0.5%2026-08-30 21:25
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.35%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.86%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.79%0.9%2026-08-30 21:00
Matchbook◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.67%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.75%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58%1.0%2026-08-30 21:25
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.97%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.64%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%1.8%2026-08-30 21:25