Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.41
assuming max odds 11.26
assuming max odds 5.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Flamengo (Local): 69.82%; Santos (Visit): 10.29%; Draw: 19.89%. For Santos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.72. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.90%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.99%EV -6.45%E -4.81%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 11.26I 8.88%NM 8.57%EV +15.90%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.246% | 4.96I 20.16%NM 19.45%EV -1.34%E -0.270%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -9.24%E -7.11%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +13.22%E +1.20%K +1.32%G +0.175% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -0.544%E -0.109%K -0.136%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-05 20:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -9.24%E -7.11%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +13.22%E +1.20%K +1.32%G +0.175% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.39%EV -7.84%E -5.94%K -24.51%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.98%EV +8.08%E +0.769%K +0.850%G +0.069% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 20:22 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.39%EV -7.84%E -5.94%K -24.51%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.98%EV +8.08%E +0.769%K +0.850%G +0.069% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 20:23 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.94%EV -1.56%E -1.11%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.97%EV +0.358%E +0.037%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 4.61I 21.69%NM 21.09%EV -8.30%E -1.80%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-05 20:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.79%EV -4.35%E -3.18%K -11.76%G +0.000% | 9.73I 10.28%NM 9.83%EV +0.152%E +0.016%K +0.017%G +0.000% | 4.69I 21.32%NM 20.39%EV -6.71%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-05 20:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.36%EV -3.65%E -2.65%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.22%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.42%EV -0.544%E -0.109%K -0.136%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-05 19:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.36%EV -3.65%E -2.65%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.22%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.42%EV -0.544%E -0.109%K -0.136%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-05 19:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.10%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-05 03:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.10%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-05 03:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.10%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-05 03:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.41%EV -6.45%E -4.81%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.42%EV -7.15%E -5.37%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-05 20:08 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.48%EV -9.94%E -7.70%K -34.27%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -2.53%E -0.517%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-05 20:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.75%EV -9.24%E -7.11%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -6.51%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-05 20:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.95%EV -12.73%E -10.18%K -50.92%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.71%EV -10.49%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.13%EV -7.15%E -5.37%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.03%EV -4.27%E -0.460%K -0.515%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -6.51%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-05 20:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.74%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.23%EV -5.30%E -0.576%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -6.51%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.57%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.51%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.92%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-05 20:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 19:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 19:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 19:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 19:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 19:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 19:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.88%EV -6.45%E -4.81%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-05 19:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.04%EV -7.15%E -5.37%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -10.49%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-05 20:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -10.49%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-05 20:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.44%EV -6.45%E -4.81%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -8.50%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-05 20:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.64%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -12.48%E -2.84%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.05%EV -7.84%E -5.94%K -24.51%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -6.51%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-05 19:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.05%EV -7.84%E -5.94%K -24.51%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -6.51%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-05 19:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.15%E -5.37%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -10.49%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-05 20:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.96%EV -7.15%E -5.37%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -12.48%E -2.84%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-05 20:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.80%EV -6.45%E -4.81%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.48%EV -9.42%E -1.07%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.72%EV -11.48%E -2.58%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.80%EV -6.45%E -4.81%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.48%EV -9.42%E -1.07%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.72%EV -11.48%E -2.58%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-05 20:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.05%EV -3.65%E -2.65%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.89%EV -9.94%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.06%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-05 10:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.50%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.80%EV -9.94%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-05 20:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.28%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.28%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 20:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.86%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -8.50%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.66%EV -9.24%E -7.11%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.65%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -8.50%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-05 14:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.66%EV -9.24%E -7.11%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.65%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -8.50%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-05 14:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.82%EV -9.94%E -7.70%K -34.27%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -8.50%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-05 19:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.82%EV -9.94%E -7.70%K -34.27%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -8.50%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-05 19:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.52%EV -9.94%E -7.70%K -34.27%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -10.49%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.12%EV -9.94%E -7.70%K -34.27%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 10.61%EV -13.54%E -1.61%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -12.48%E -2.84%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.07%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.30%EV -15.08%E -1.83%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.07%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.30%EV -15.08%E -1.83%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-05 20:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -9.24%E -7.11%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 10.82%EV -15.08%E -1.83%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.52%EV -13.47%E -3.10%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-05 20:18 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -7.84%E -5.94%K -24.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -17.66%E -2.21%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -6.51%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 67.98%EV -9.94%E -7.70%K -34.27%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.09%EV -25.38%E -3.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.93%EV -12.48%E -2.84%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.85% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.32% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.83% | 0.2% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.85% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.32% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.83% | 0.2% | 2026-04-05 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.00% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.27% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.73% | 0.7% | 2026-04-05 20:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.00% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.27% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.73% | 0.7% | 2026-04-05 20:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.62% | 11.49I 8.70%NM 8.53% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.85% | 2.0% | 2026-04-05 20:24 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.86% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.73% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40% | 3.1% | 2026-04-05 20:25 |