L’École des cotes

Flamengo v Santos

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-05 20:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Flamengo (Local)

Prévision 69.82%1.43cote équitable
EV -1.56%
Avantage -1.11%
Kelly -3.80%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.41

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
67.98%69.77%69.82%72.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.251.331.341.4180.00%74.91%74.63%70.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Santos (Visiteur)

Prévision 10.29%9.72cote équitable
EV +15.90%
Avantage +1.41%
Kelly +1.55%
Croissance +0.246%

avec la cote maximale 11.26

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
8.49%10.28%10.30%12.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
7.259.109.0011.2613.79%10.98%11.11%8.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 19.89%5.03cote équitable
EV -0.544%
Avantage -0.109%
Kelly -0.136%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.82%19.95%19.88%21.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.354.694.755.0022.99%21.34%21.05%20.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.34I 74.63%NM 71.99%EV -6.45%E -4.81%K -18.96%G +0.000%11.26I 8.88%NM 8.57%EV +15.90%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.246%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.45%EV -1.34%E -0.270%K -0.338%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-05 20:20
SportsBet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -9.24%E -7.11%K -30.80%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +13.22%E +1.20%K +1.32%G +0.175%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -0.544%E -0.109%K -0.136%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 20:25
Everygame1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -9.24%E -7.11%K -30.80%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +13.22%E +1.20%K +1.32%G +0.175%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 20:20
Bovada1.32I 75.76%NM 71.39%EV -7.84%E -5.94%K -24.51%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.98%EV +8.08%E +0.769%K +0.850%G +0.069%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 20:22
BetUS1.32I 75.76%NM 71.39%EV -7.84%E -5.94%K -24.51%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.98%EV +8.08%E +0.769%K +0.850%G +0.069%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 20:23
1xBet1.41I 70.92%NM 68.94%EV -1.56%E -1.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.97%EV +0.358%E +0.037%K +0.041%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 21.09%EV -8.30%E -1.80%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-05 20:25
GTbets1.37I 72.99%NM 69.79%EV -4.35%E -3.18%K -11.76%G +0.000%9.73I 10.28%NM 9.83%EV +0.152%E +0.016%K +0.017%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.39%EV -6.71%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-05 20:25
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 70.36%EV -3.65%E -2.65%K -9.62%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.22%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.42%EV -0.544%E -0.109%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-05 19:50
Svenska Spel1.38I 72.46%NM 70.36%EV -3.65%E -2.65%K -9.62%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.22%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.42%EV -0.544%E -0.109%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-05 19:50
LowVig.ag1.36I 73.53%NM 70.10%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 03:09
BetOnline.ag1.36I 73.53%NM 70.10%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 03:09
BetAnything1.36I 73.53%NM 70.10%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 03:09
DraftKings1.34I 74.63%NM 70.41%EV -6.45%E -4.81%K -18.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 20:20
Bet Victor1.33I 75.19%NM 70.42%EV -7.15%E -5.37%K -21.65%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 20:08
FanDuel1.29I 77.52%NM 71.48%EV -9.94%E -7.70%K -34.27%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -2.53%E -0.517%K -0.649%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 20:19
Tipico (DE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.75%EV -9.24%E -7.11%K -30.80%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -6.51%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-05 20:24
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00%NM 70.95%EV -12.73%E -10.18%K -50.92%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -2.22%E -0.233%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.71%EV -10.49%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-05 20:20
Marathon Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.13%EV -7.15%E -5.37%K -21.65%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.03%EV -4.27%E -0.460%K -0.515%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -6.51%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 20:25
Codere (IT)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.74%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.23%EV -5.30%E -0.576%K -0.647%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -6.51%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 20:20
Fanatics1.36I 73.53%NM 69.57%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.51%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.92%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 20:05
Grosvenor1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 19:45
Unibet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 19:40
Unibet (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 19:39
Casumo1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 19:44
Unibet (NL)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 19:45
betPARX1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 19:45
Unibet (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 20:20
BetRivers1.34I 74.63%NM 69.88%EV -6.45%E -4.81%K -18.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 19:44
Betway1.33I 75.19%NM 70.04%EV -7.15%E -5.37%K -21.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 20:20
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -10.49%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 20:10
PointsBet (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -10.49%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 20:10
Bet Right1.34I 74.63%NM 69.44%EV -6.45%E -4.81%K -18.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -8.50%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 20:10
William Hill1.35I 74.07%NM 68.64%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -12.48%E -2.84%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-05 20:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.05%EV -7.84%E -5.94%K -24.51%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -6.51%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-05 19:50
LeoVegas1.32I 75.76%NM 70.05%EV -7.84%E -5.94%K -24.51%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -6.51%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-05 19:45
BoyleSports1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.15%E -5.37%K -21.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -10.49%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 20:09
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 68.96%EV -7.15%E -5.37%K -21.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -7.36%E -0.818%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -12.48%E -2.84%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 20:14
Betsson1.34I 74.63%NM 68.80%EV -6.45%E -4.81%K -18.96%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.48%EV -9.42%E -1.07%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.72%EV -11.48%E -2.58%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 20:20
NordicBet1.34I 74.63%NM 68.80%EV -6.45%E -4.81%K -18.96%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.48%EV -9.42%E -1.07%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.72%EV -11.48%E -2.58%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 20:19
Coolbet1.38I 72.46%NM 69.05%EV -3.65%E -2.65%K -9.62%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.89%EV -9.94%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.06%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 10:29
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 69.50%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.80%EV -9.94%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 20:24
Coral1.36I 73.53%NM 69.28%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 20:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.28%EV -5.05%E -3.71%K -14.03%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -4.52%E -0.942%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 20:25
PlayUp1.35I 74.07%NM 68.86%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -8.50%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-05 20:20
PMU (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.66%EV -9.24%E -7.11%K -30.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.65%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -8.50%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-05 14:34
TABtouch1.30I 76.92%NM 69.66%EV -9.24%E -7.11%K -30.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.65%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -8.50%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-05 14:34
Virgin Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 69.82%EV -9.94%E -7.70%K -34.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -8.50%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-05 19:50
LiveScore Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 69.82%EV -9.94%E -7.70%K -34.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -8.50%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-05 19:50
Sky Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 69.52%EV -9.94%E -7.70%K -34.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -12.51%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -10.49%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-05 20:20
Unibet (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 69.12%EV -9.94%E -7.70%K -34.27%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.61%EV -13.54%E -1.61%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -12.48%E -2.84%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-05 20:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.07%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.30%EV -15.08%E -1.83%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 20:20
Neds1.35I 74.07%NM 69.07%EV -5.75%E -4.26%K -16.43%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.30%EV -15.08%E -1.83%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.52%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 20:25
Betclic (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -9.24%E -7.11%K -30.80%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.82%EV -15.08%E -1.83%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.52%EV -13.47%E -3.10%K -4.02%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-05 20:18
Winamax (DE)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -7.84%E -5.94%K -24.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -17.66%E -2.21%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -6.51%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-05 20:20
Winamax (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 67.98%EV -9.94%E -7.70%K -34.27%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.09%EV -25.38%E -3.50%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.93%EV -12.48%E -2.84%K -3.67%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-05 20:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.85%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.32%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.83%0.2%2026-04-05 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.85%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.32%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.83%0.2%2026-04-05 20:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 73.00%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.27%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.73%0.7%2026-04-05 20:25
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 73.00%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.27%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.73%0.7%2026-04-05 20:25
Smarkets1.35I 74.07%NM 72.62%11.49I 8.70%NM 8.53%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.85%2.0%2026-04-05 20:24
Kalshi1.35I 74.07%NM 71.86%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.73%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40%3.1%2026-04-05 20:25