Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo v Grêmio

Kickoff: 2026-09-16 22:30 UTC

Final: Botafogo 3–2 Grêmio

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 54.21%1.84fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -3.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.34%54.20%54.31%56.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.711.721.7961.73%58.39%58.14%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grêmio (Visit)

Prediction 21.11%4.74fair odd
EV +5.97%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 5.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.11%21.10%21.04%22.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.454.505.0225.00%22.46%22.22%19.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.68%4.05fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.317%
Kelly -0.423%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.64%24.70%24.65%26.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.743.754.0028.57%26.72%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo (Local): 54.21%; Grêmio (Visit): 21.11%; Draw: 24.68%. For Grêmio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.74. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.02, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.42%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.11%EV +5.97%E +1.19%K +1.49%G +0.089%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -3.24%E -0.827%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-16 22:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.84%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +5.55%E +1.11%K +1.39%G +0.077%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-16 22:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.84%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +5.55%E +1.11%K +1.39%G +0.077%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-16 22:25
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.39%EV -4.05%E -2.29%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.27%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-16 22:20
Coolbet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.75%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.20%EV -6.70%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 07:55
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:24
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.94%EV -2.97%E -1.66%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.45%EV -0.359%E -0.076%K -0.096%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.61%EV -6.94%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 22:21
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.87%EV -4.60%E -2.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -1.27%E -0.317%K -0.423%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 21:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.87%EV -4.60%E -2.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -1.27%E -0.317%K -0.423%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 21:45
BetUS🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.87%EV -4.60%E -2.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -1.27%E -0.317%K -0.423%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 21:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -10.56%E -6.40%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-16 22:05
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.39%EV -8.93%E -5.32%K -13.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-16 22:00
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.05%EV -7.31%E -4.27%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.69%EV -3.95%E -0.868%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.26%EV -4.23%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 09:20
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.56%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -3.74%E -0.958%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-16 21:48
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -4.60%E -2.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-16 22:05
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 22:05
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.89%EV -5.14%E -2.94%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 22:20
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -7.31%E -4.27%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 22:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.27%EV -9.17%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-16 22:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.45%EV -10.02%E -6.03%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 22:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.45%EV -10.02%E -6.03%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 22:25
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.45%EV -10.02%E -6.03%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 22:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.60%EV -10.56%E -6.40%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-16 22:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.60%EV -10.56%E -6.40%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-16 22:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.13%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 22:05
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.96%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 22:25
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:20
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -9.91%E -2.71%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 22:25
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.97%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -8.17%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-16 22:05
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.80%EV -5.14%E -2.94%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%EV -8.59%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 22:20
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.26%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.68%EV -8.59%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -3.74%E -0.958%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 22:24
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.26%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.68%EV -8.59%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -3.74%E -0.958%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 22:24
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -8.59%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -13.61%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-16 22:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.18%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -10.28%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -3.74%E -0.958%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-16 22:20
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -5.14%E -2.94%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -10.28%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-16 22:20
Bet Right🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.73%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-16 22:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 21:54
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 22:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 22:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 22:25
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-16 21:55
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-16 22:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-16 22:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.84%EV -12.19%E -7.52%K -19.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-16 22:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.17%EV -8.93%E -5.32%K -13.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -13.45%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-16 22:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.83%EV -11.64%E -7.14%K -18.48%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.66%EV -14.50%E -3.58%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.51%EV -11.63%E -3.25%K -4.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-16 22:05
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -15.56%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-16 22:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.83%EV -10.02%E -6.03%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.56%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-16 22:05
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -15.56%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -13.61%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-16 22:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.69%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.91%4.08I 24.51%NM 24.40%0.5%2026-09-16 22:10
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-09-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-09-16 22:20
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.28%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%1.2%2026-09-16 22:05