A Escola das Oddsodds.school
Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)
+ Novo modeloTodos os modelos

Botafogo v Grêmio

Início: 2026-09-16 22:30 UTC

Final: Botafogo 3–2 Grêmio

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

55 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Botafogo (Local)

Previsão 54.21%1.84odd justa
EV -2.97%
Vantagem -1.66%
Kelly -3.76%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.79

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
52.34%54.20%54.31%56.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.621.711.721.7961.73%58.39%58.14%55.87%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Grêmio (Visitante)

Previsão 21.11%4.74odd justa
EV +5.97%
Vantagem +1.19%
Kelly +1.49%
Crescimento +0.089%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.02

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.11%21.10%21.04%22.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.004.454.505.0225.00%22.46%22.22%19.92%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 24.68%4.05odd justa
EV -1.27%
Vantagem -0.317%
Kelly -0.423%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.64%24.70%24.65%26.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.503.743.754.0028.57%26.72%26.67%25.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Botafogo (Local): 54.21%; Grêmio (Visitante): 21.11%; Empate: 24.68%. Para Grêmio (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.74. 11 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.02, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.97%.

Odds das casas de apostas (55 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.42%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.11%EV +5.97%E +1.19%K +1.49%G +0.089%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -3.24%E -0.827%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-16 22:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.84%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +5.55%E +1.11%K +1.39%G +0.077%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-16 22:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.84%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +5.55%E +1.11%K +1.39%G +0.077%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-16 22:25
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.39%EV -4.05%E -2.29%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.27%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-16 22:20
Coolbet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.75%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.20%EV -6.70%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 07:55
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:24
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.94%EV -2.97%E -1.66%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.45%EV -0.359%E -0.076%K -0.096%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.61%EV -6.94%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 22:21
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.87%EV -4.60%E -2.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -1.27%E -0.317%K -0.423%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 21:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.87%EV -4.60%E -2.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -1.27%E -0.317%K -0.423%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 21:45
BetUS🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.87%EV -4.60%E -2.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -1.27%E -0.317%K -0.423%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 21:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -10.56%E -6.40%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-16 22:05
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.39%EV -8.93%E -5.32%K -13.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-16 22:00
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.05%EV -7.31%E -4.27%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.69%EV -3.95%E -0.868%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.26%EV -4.23%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 09:20
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.56%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -3.74%E -0.958%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-16 21:48
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -4.60%E -2.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-16 22:05
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 22:05
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.89%EV -5.14%E -2.94%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 22:20
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -7.31%E -4.27%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 22:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.27%EV -9.17%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-16 22:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.45%EV -10.02%E -6.03%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 22:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.45%EV -10.02%E -6.03%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 22:25
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.45%EV -10.02%E -6.03%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 22:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.60%EV -10.56%E -6.40%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-16 22:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.60%EV -10.56%E -6.40%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-16 22:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.13%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 22:05
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.96%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 22:25
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:20
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -9.91%E -2.71%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 22:25
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.97%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -8.17%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-16 22:05
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.80%EV -5.14%E -2.94%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%EV -8.59%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 22:20
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.26%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.68%EV -8.59%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -3.74%E -0.958%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 22:24
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.26%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.68%EV -8.59%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -3.74%E -0.958%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 22:24
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -8.59%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -13.61%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-16 22:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.18%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -10.28%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -3.74%E -0.958%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-16 22:20
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -5.14%E -2.94%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -10.28%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-16 22:20
Bet Right🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.73%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-16 22:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 21:54
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 22:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 22:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 22:25
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-16 21:55
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-16 22:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-16 22:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.84%EV -12.19%E -7.52%K -19.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-16 22:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.17%EV -8.93%E -5.32%K -13.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -13.45%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-16 22:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.83%EV -11.64%E -7.14%K -18.48%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.66%EV -14.50%E -3.58%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.51%EV -11.63%E -3.25%K -4.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-16 22:05
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -15.56%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-16 22:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.83%EV -10.02%E -6.03%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.56%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-16 22:05
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -15.56%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -13.61%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-16 22:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.69%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.91%4.08I 24.51%NM 24.40%0.5%2026-09-16 22:10
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-09-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-09-16 22:20
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.28%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%1.2%2026-09-16 22:05