L’École des cotesodds.school
Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)
+ Nouveau modèleTous les modèles

Botafogo v Grêmio

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-16 22:30 UTC

Score final : Botafogo 3–2 Grêmio

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Botafogo (Local)

Prévision 54.21%1.84cote équitable
EV -2.97%
Avantage -1.66%
Kelly -3.76%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.79

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.34%54.20%54.31%56.42%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.621.711.721.7961.73%58.39%58.14%55.87%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Grêmio (Visiteur)

Prévision 21.11%4.74cote équitable
EV +5.97%
Avantage +1.19%
Kelly +1.49%
Croissance +0.089%

avec la cote maximale 5.02

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.11%21.10%21.04%22.40%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.004.454.505.0225.00%22.46%22.22%19.92%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 24.68%4.05cote équitable
EV -1.27%
Avantage -0.317%
Kelly -0.423%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.64%24.70%24.65%26.10%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.503.743.754.0028.57%26.72%26.67%25.00%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Botafogo (Local) : 54.21% ; Grêmio (Visiteur) : 21.11% ; Match nul : 24.68%. Pour Grêmio (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.74. 11 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 5.02, soit une espérance positive de +5.97%.

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.42%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.11%EV +5.97%E +1.19%K +1.49%G +0.089%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -3.24%E -0.827%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-16 22:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.84%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +5.55%E +1.11%K +1.39%G +0.077%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-16 22:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.84%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +5.55%E +1.11%K +1.39%G +0.077%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-16 22:25
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.39%EV -4.05%E -2.29%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.27%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-16 22:20
Coolbet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.75%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.20%EV -6.70%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 07:55
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:25
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV +0.275%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:24
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.94%EV -2.97%E -1.66%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.45%EV -0.359%E -0.076%K -0.096%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.61%EV -6.94%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 22:21
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.87%EV -4.60%E -2.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -1.27%E -0.317%K -0.423%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 21:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.87%EV -4.60%E -2.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -1.27%E -0.317%K -0.423%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 21:45
BetUS🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.87%EV -4.60%E -2.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -1.27%E -0.317%K -0.423%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 21:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -10.56%E -6.40%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-16 22:05
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.39%EV -8.93%E -5.32%K -13.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -2.89%E -0.629%K -0.803%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-16 22:00
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.05%EV -7.31%E -4.27%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.69%EV -3.95%E -0.868%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.26%EV -4.23%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 09:20
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.56%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -3.74%E -0.958%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-16 21:48
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -4.60%E -2.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-16 22:05
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 22:05
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.89%EV -5.14%E -2.94%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 22:20
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -7.31%E -4.27%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 22:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.27%EV -9.17%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-16 22:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.45%EV -10.02%E -6.03%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 22:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.45%EV -10.02%E -6.03%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 22:25
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.45%EV -10.02%E -6.03%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 22:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.60%EV -10.56%E -6.40%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-16 22:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.60%EV -10.56%E -6.40%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -5.00%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -12.38%E -3.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-16 22:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.13%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 22:05
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.96%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 22:25
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -5.68%E -3.26%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 22:20
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -9.91%E -2.71%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 22:25
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.11%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.97%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -8.17%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-16 22:05
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.80%EV -5.14%E -2.94%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%EV -8.59%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 22:20
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.26%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.68%EV -8.59%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -3.74%E -0.958%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 22:24
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.26%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.68%EV -8.59%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -3.74%E -0.958%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 22:24
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -8.59%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -13.61%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-16 22:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.18%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -10.28%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -3.74%E -0.958%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-16 22:20
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -5.14%E -2.94%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -10.28%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-16 22:20
Bet Right🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.73%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-16 22:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 21:54
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 22:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 22:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.22%E -3.60%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 22:25
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-16 21:55
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-16 22:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-16 22:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.84%EV -12.19%E -7.52%K -19.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -11.34%E -2.70%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-16 22:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.17%EV -8.93%E -5.32%K -13.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -13.45%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-16 22:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.83%EV -11.64%E -7.14%K -18.48%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.66%EV -14.50%E -3.58%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.51%EV -11.63%E -3.25%K -4.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-16 22:05
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -15.56%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-16 22:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.83%EV -10.02%E -6.03%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.56%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-16 22:05
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -7.85%E -4.62%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -15.56%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -13.61%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-16 22:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.69%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.91%4.08I 24.51%NM 24.40%0.5%2026-09-16 22:10
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-09-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-09-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-09-16 22:20
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.28%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%1.2%2026-09-16 22:05