Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bahia v Palmeiras

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bahia (Local)

Prediction 36.74%2.72fair odd
EV +1.04%
Edge +0.378%
Kelly +0.593%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.02%36.66%36.83%37.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.552.552.7542.55%39.17%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palmeiras (Visit)

Prediction 33.02%3.03fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -0.881%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.73%33.13%32.99%34.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.782.752.9538.46%36.03%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.24%3.31fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.528%
Kelly -0.763%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.72%30.21%30.17%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.083.103.2535.71%32.45%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bahia (Local): 36.74%; Palmeiras (Visit): 33.02%; Draw: 30.24%. For Bahia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.19%EV +1.04%E +0.378%K +0.593%G +0.006%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.56%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 22:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.19%EV +1.04%E +0.378%K +0.593%G +0.006%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.56%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 22:19
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV +0.671%E +0.245%K +0.386%G +0.003%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.13%EV -6.23%E -2.19%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.48%EV -3.83%E -1.21%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-05 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:20
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:20
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:19
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:19
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:09
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.26%EV -3.37%E -1.28%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.34%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.40%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-05 22:19
Pinnacle🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.93%EV -3.74%E -1.43%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.02%EV -3.26%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.05%EV -2.62%E -0.815%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 22:20
Coolbet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.38%EV -3.74%E -1.43%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.25%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.75%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 21:49
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.70%EV -4.47%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 22:15
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -4.47%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -1.72%E -0.528%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 22:00
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -4.47%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 22:18
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -4.47%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.45%EV -12.50%E -4.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-05 22:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -4.47%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -13.16%E -5.01%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 22:20
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -4.47%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -13.16%E -5.01%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 22:18
GTbets🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.30%EV -5.57%E -2.17%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.80%EV -8.87%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.90%EV -5.65%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 21:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.41%EV -5.94%E -2.32%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.93%EV -6.56%E -2.32%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.66%EV -8.07%E -2.65%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-05 22:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.33%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -2.60%E -0.881%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.41%EV -5.34%E -1.71%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 22:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.33%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -2.60%E -0.881%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.41%EV -5.34%E -1.71%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 22:04
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -4.25%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 22:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.74%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 22:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.74%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 22:05
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.74%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 22:14
BetAnything🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -4.91%E -1.70%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 22:25
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -4.91%E -1.70%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 22:25
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.89%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.77%EV -5.24%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 22:15
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -1.72%E -0.528%K -0.763%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 21:58
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-05 22:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.03%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -10.79%E -3.66%K -5.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-05 22:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.15%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.47%EV -14.15%E -5.44%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -10.79%E -3.66%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-05 22:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.15%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.47%EV -14.15%E -5.44%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -10.79%E -3.66%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-05 22:20
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.02%EV -7.41%E -2.94%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -4.91%E -1.70%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 22:04
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.02%EV -7.41%E -2.94%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -4.91%E -1.70%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 22:05
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -4.91%E -1.70%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:04
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -1.72%E -0.528%K -0.763%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 21:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -1.72%E -0.528%K -0.763%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 21:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -1.72%E -0.528%K -0.763%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 22:00
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-05 15:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-05 15:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-05 15:54
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-05 22:20
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-05 22:25
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-05 22:24
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-05 21:54
Bovada🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.59%EV -8.51%E -3.42%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV -2.60%E -0.881%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 22:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -9.98%E -4.08%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-05 22:05
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -9.98%E -4.08%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-05 22:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -9.98%E -4.08%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.81%EV -10.19%E -3.75%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.77%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-05 22:08
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -11.82%E -4.93%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-05 22:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.16%EV -12.56%E -5.28%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.10%EV -14.15%E -5.44%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.74%EV -15.32%E -5.47%K -8.51%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-05 22:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -13.66%E -5.81%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.40%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-05 22:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.21%EV -13.66%E -5.81%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.64%EV -14.15%E -5.44%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.15%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-05 22:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.65%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%0.3%2026-04-05 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.65%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%0.3%2026-04-05 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.65%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%0.3%2026-04-05 22:25
Matchbook2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%0.9%2026-04-05 22:25
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.42%1.1%2026-04-05 22:25
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 35.97%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.96%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.07%3.0%2026-04-05 22:20