L’École des cotes

Bahia v Palmeiras

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-05 22:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Bahia (Local)

Prévision 36.74%2.72cote équitable
EV +1.04%
Avantage +0.378%
Kelly +0.593%
Croissance +0.006%

avec la cote maximale 2.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.02%36.66%36.83%37.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.352.552.552.7542.55%39.17%39.22%36.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Palmeiras (Visiteur)

Prévision 33.02%3.03cote équitable
EV -2.60%
Avantage -0.881%
Kelly -1.33%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.73%33.13%32.99%34.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.602.782.752.9538.46%36.03%36.36%33.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 30.24%3.31cote équitable
EV -1.72%
Avantage -0.528%
Kelly -0.763%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.72%30.21%30.17%31.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.803.083.103.2535.71%32.45%32.26%30.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 35.19%EV +1.04%E +0.378%K +0.593%G +0.006%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.56%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 22:19
Svenska Spel2.75I 36.36%NM 35.19%EV +1.04%E +0.378%K +0.593%G +0.006%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.56%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 22:19
1xBet2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV +0.671%E +0.245%K +0.386%G +0.003%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.13%EV -6.23%E -2.19%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.48%EV -3.83%E -1.21%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-05 22:25
Unibet (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:20
Unibet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:20
Grosvenor2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:19
Casumo2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:20
Unibet (NL)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:19
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:09
betPARX2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.64%E -0.995%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 35.26%EV -3.37%E -1.28%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.34%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.40%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-05 22:19
Pinnacle2.62I 38.17%NM 36.93%EV -3.74%E -1.43%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.02%EV -3.26%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.05%EV -2.62%E -0.815%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 22:20
Coolbet2.62I 38.17%NM 36.38%EV -3.74%E -1.43%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.25%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.75%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 21:49
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.70%EV -4.47%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 22:15
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -4.47%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -1.72%E -0.528%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 22:00
Bet Victor2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -4.47%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 22:18
LeoVegas2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -4.47%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.45%EV -12.50%E -4.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-05 22:20
PMU (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -4.47%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -13.16%E -5.01%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 22:20
TABtouch2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -4.47%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -13.16%E -5.01%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 22:18
GTbets2.57I 38.91%NM 36.30%EV -5.57%E -2.17%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.80%EV -8.87%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.90%EV -5.65%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 21:40
Marathon Bet2.56I 39.06%NM 36.41%EV -5.94%E -2.32%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.93%EV -6.56%E -2.32%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.66%EV -8.07%E -2.65%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-05 22:25
LowVig.ag2.55I 39.22%NM 37.33%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -2.60%E -0.881%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.41%EV -5.34%E -1.71%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 22:05
BetOnline.ag2.55I 39.22%NM 37.33%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -2.60%E -0.881%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.41%EV -5.34%E -1.71%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 22:04
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -4.25%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 22:14
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.74%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 22:05
Unibet (UK)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.74%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 22:05
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.74%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 22:14
BetAnything2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -4.91%E -1.70%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 22:25
BetUS2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -4.91%E -1.70%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 22:25
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.89%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.77%EV -5.24%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 22:15
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -1.72%E -0.528%K -0.763%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 21:58
Everygame2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-05 22:15
Tipico (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.03%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -10.79%E -3.66%K -5.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-05 22:25
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.15%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.47%EV -14.15%E -5.44%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -10.79%E -3.66%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-05 22:19
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.15%EV -6.31%E -2.47%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.47%EV -14.15%E -5.44%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -10.79%E -3.66%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-05 22:20
NordicBet2.52I 39.68%NM 37.02%EV -7.41%E -2.94%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -4.91%E -1.70%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 22:04
Betsson2.52I 39.68%NM 37.02%EV -7.41%E -2.94%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -4.91%E -1.70%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 22:05
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -4.91%E -1.70%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 22:04
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -1.72%E -0.528%K -0.763%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 21:54
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -1.72%E -0.528%K -0.763%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 21:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -1.72%E -0.528%K -0.763%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 22:00
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-05 15:54
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-05 15:54
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-05 15:54
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-05 22:20
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-05 22:25
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-05 22:24
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-05 21:54
Bovada2.49I 40.16%NM 37.59%EV -8.51%E -3.42%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV -2.60%E -0.881%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 22:14
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -9.98%E -4.08%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-05 22:05
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -9.98%E -4.08%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-05 22:14
Betclic (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -9.98%E -4.08%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.81%EV -10.19%E -3.75%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.77%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-05 22:08
Sky Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -11.82%E -4.93%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-05 22:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 36.16%EV -12.56%E -5.28%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.10%EV -14.15%E -5.44%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.74%EV -15.32%E -5.47%K -8.51%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-05 22:10
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -13.66%E -5.81%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.40%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-05 22:05
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.21%EV -13.66%E -5.81%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.64%EV -14.15%E -5.44%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.15%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-05 22:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.65%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%0.3%2026-04-05 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.65%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%0.3%2026-04-05 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.65%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%0.3%2026-04-05 22:25
Matchbook2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%0.9%2026-04-05 22:25
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.42%1.1%2026-04-05 22:25
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 35.97%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.96%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.07%3.0%2026-04-05 22:20