Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bahia v Botafogo

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 20:30 UTC

Final: Bahia 2–1 Botafogo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bahia (Local)

Prediction 47.22%2.12fair odd
EV +1.51%
Edge +0.705%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.77%47.16%47.23%48.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.971.952.1553.19%50.80%51.28%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Botafogo (Visit)

Prediction 27.22%3.67fair odd
EV +2.08%
Edge +0.555%
Kelly +0.756%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.93%27.18%27.22%29.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.453.453.7532.26%28.98%28.99%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.56%3.91fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -0.684%
Kelly -0.928%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.61%25.65%25.55%26.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.613.603.8130.30%27.69%27.78%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bahia (Local): 47.22%; Botafogo (Visit): 27.22%; Draw: 25.56%. For Botafogo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.67. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.09%EV +1.51%E +0.705%K +1.32%G +0.020%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.47%EV -10.44%E -3.17%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.44%EV -2.61%E -0.684%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-30 20:20
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.46%EV -1.79%E -0.861%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.92%EV -2.28%E -0.634%K -0.879%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.62%EV -7.21%E -1.99%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-30 20:20
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.73%EV -3.21%E -1.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -4.73%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 20:20
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.71%EV -3.21%E -1.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76%EV -6.09%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.53%EV -4.14%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 20:19
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -3.21%E -1.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-30 20:20
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -3.21%E -1.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 20:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -3.21%E -1.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 20:20
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -3.21%E -1.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 20:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.14%EV -4.62%E -2.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV +2.08%E +0.555%K +0.756%G +0.016%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV -4.14%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-30 20:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.14%EV -4.62%E -2.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV +2.08%E +0.555%K +0.756%G +0.016%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV -4.14%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-30 20:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.85%EV -5.10%E -2.53%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 19:50
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.58%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.04%EV -4.18%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -4.14%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 19:49
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-30 20:00
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-30 20:10
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.86%E -0.753%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-30 19:50
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.86%E -0.753%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-30 19:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -4.14%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-30 19:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -4.14%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-30 19:49
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-30 20:18
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.73%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-30 19:48
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.17%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-30 20:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.83%EV -6.04%E -3.03%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 19:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.83%EV -6.04%E -3.03%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 19:49
BetAnything🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.83%EV -6.04%E -3.03%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 19:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.13%EV -6.51%E -3.29%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -4.18%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.36%EV -9.51%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 20:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -6.51%E -3.29%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 19:49
Neds🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -6.51%E -3.29%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 19:50
Unibet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -7.46%E -3.80%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 20:10
Casumo🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 20:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 20:10
Grosvenor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 20:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 20:10
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 20:10
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -4.73%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 19:50
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -6.09%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -6.70%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-30 20:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-30 18:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-30 20:20
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -6.70%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 20:10
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-30 20:20
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-30 19:49
BetRivers🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.40%E -4.33%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-30 20:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.94%EV -8.40%E -4.33%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.45%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 19:50
GTbets🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.27%EV -8.87%E -4.60%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 26.69%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.04%EV -4.91%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-30 20:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.91%EV -8.87%E -4.60%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -3.36%E -0.948%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -9.25%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-30 20:10
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -9.34%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -6.09%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 19:50
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -9.34%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -6.09%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 20:10
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -9.34%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -3.36%E -0.948%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -9.25%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-30 20:10
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -9.82%E -5.14%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-30 20:00
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -9.82%E -5.14%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-30 19:50
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -9.82%E -5.14%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -10.17%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.64%E -4.74%K -6.80%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-30 20:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -10.29%E -5.42%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -4.73%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 11:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.03%EV -10.29%E -5.42%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.66%EV -12.08%E -3.74%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.31%EV -9.76%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-30 20:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.08%EV -10.76%E -5.69%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -4.73%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-30 20:10
TABtouch🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.08%EV -10.76%E -5.69%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -4.73%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-30 20:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.85%EV -11.23%E -5.98%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.07%EV -6.09%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.07%EV -11.81%E -3.42%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-30 20:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.85%EV -11.23%E -5.98%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.07%EV -6.09%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.07%EV -11.81%E -3.42%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-30 20:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.07%EV -11.23%E -5.98%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-30 20:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.82%EV -11.23%E -5.98%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.39%EV -15.61%E -5.04%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.79%EV -9.25%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-30 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.12I 47.17%NM 47.10%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.28%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.63%0.2%2026-05-30 20:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-05-30 20:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-05-30 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-05-30 20:20
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%1.1%2026-05-30 20:20
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%2.1%2026-05-30 20:10