L’École des cotes

Bahia v Botafogo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-30 20:30 UTC

Score final : Bahia 2–1 Botafogo

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Bahia (Local)

Prévision 47.22%2.12cote équitable
EV +1.51%
Avantage +0.705%
Kelly +1.32%
Croissance +0.020%

avec la cote maximale 2.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.77%47.16%47.23%48.29%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.881.971.952.1553.19%50.80%51.28%46.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Botafogo (Visiteur)

Prévision 27.22%3.67cote équitable
EV +2.08%
Avantage +0.555%
Kelly +0.756%
Croissance +0.016%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.93%27.18%27.22%29.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.453.453.7532.26%28.98%28.99%26.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.56%3.91cote équitable
EV -2.61%
Avantage -0.684%
Kelly -0.928%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.81

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.61%25.65%25.55%26.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.613.603.8130.30%27.69%27.78%26.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet2.15I 46.51%NM 45.09%EV +1.51%E +0.705%K +1.32%G +0.020%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.47%EV -10.44%E -3.17%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.44%EV -2.61%E -0.684%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-30 20:20
Pinnacle2.08I 48.08%NM 46.46%EV -1.79%E -0.861%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.92%EV -2.28%E -0.634%K -0.879%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.62%EV -7.21%E -1.99%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-30 20:20
BetUS2.05I 48.78%NM 46.73%EV -3.21%E -1.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -4.73%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 20:20
Bovada2.05I 48.78%NM 46.71%EV -3.21%E -1.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76%EV -6.09%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.53%EV -4.14%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 20:19
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -3.21%E -1.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-30 20:20
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -3.21%E -1.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 20:20
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -3.21%E -1.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 20:20
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -3.21%E -1.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 20:20
ATG (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.14%EV -4.62%E -2.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV +2.08%E +0.555%K +0.756%G +0.016%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV -4.14%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-30 20:10
Svenska Spel2.02I 49.50%NM 48.14%EV -4.62%E -2.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV +2.08%E +0.555%K +0.756%G +0.016%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV -4.14%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-30 20:09
Codere (IT)2.01I 49.75%NM 46.85%EV -5.10%E -2.53%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 19:50
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.58%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.04%EV -4.18%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -4.14%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 19:49
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-30 20:00
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-30 20:10
BetMGM2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.86%E -0.753%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-30 19:50
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.86%E -0.753%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-30 19:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -4.14%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-30 19:50
Unibet (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -4.14%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-30 19:49
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-30 20:18
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.73%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-30 19:48
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.17%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-30 20:00
LowVig.ag1.99I 50.25%NM 47.83%EV -6.04%E -3.03%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 19:50
BetOnline.ag1.99I 50.25%NM 47.83%EV -6.04%E -3.03%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 19:49
BetAnything1.99I 50.25%NM 47.83%EV -6.04%E -3.03%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 19:49
Marathon Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.13%EV -6.51%E -3.29%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -4.18%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.36%EV -9.51%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 20:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -6.51%E -3.29%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 19:49
Neds1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -6.51%E -3.29%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 19:50
Unibet1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -7.46%E -3.80%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 20:10
Casumo1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 20:10
Unibet (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 20:10
Grosvenor1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 20:10
Unibet (NL)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 20:10
betPARX1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 20:10
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -4.73%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 19:50
Bet Right1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -6.09%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -6.70%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-30 20:20
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-30 18:30
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-30 20:20
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -6.70%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 20:10
betfred_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-30 20:20
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.93%E -4.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-30 19:49
BetRivers1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.40%E -4.33%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-30 20:10
Winamax (DE)1.94I 51.55%NM 46.94%EV -8.40%E -4.33%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.45%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 19:50
GTbets1.93I 51.81%NM 48.27%EV -8.87%E -4.60%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 26.69%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.04%EV -4.91%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-30 20:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 47.91%EV -8.87%E -4.60%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -3.36%E -0.948%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -9.25%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-30 20:10
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -9.34%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -6.09%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 19:50
Betsson1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -9.34%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -6.09%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 20:10
LeoVegas1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -9.34%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -3.36%E -0.948%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -9.25%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-30 20:10
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -9.82%E -5.14%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-30 20:00
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -9.82%E -5.14%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-30 19:50
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -9.82%E -5.14%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -10.17%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.64%E -4.74%K -6.80%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-30 20:00
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -10.29%E -5.42%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -4.73%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 11:49
Betclic (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 47.03%EV -10.29%E -5.42%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.66%EV -12.08%E -3.74%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.31%EV -9.76%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-30 20:09
PMU (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 48.08%EV -10.76%E -5.69%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -4.73%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-30 20:10
TABtouch1.89I 52.91%NM 48.08%EV -10.76%E -5.69%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -4.73%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-30 20:10
Virgin Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 47.85%EV -11.23%E -5.98%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.07%EV -6.09%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.07%EV -11.81%E -3.42%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-30 20:10
LiveScore Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 47.85%EV -11.23%E -5.98%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.07%EV -6.09%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.07%EV -11.81%E -3.42%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-30 20:10
Unibet (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 47.07%EV -11.23%E -5.98%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-30 20:10
Winamax (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 46.82%EV -11.23%E -5.98%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.39%EV -15.61%E -5.04%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.79%EV -9.25%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-30 19:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.12I 47.17%NM 47.10%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.28%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.63%0.2%2026-05-30 20:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-05-30 20:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-05-30 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-05-30 20:20
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%1.1%2026-05-30 20:20
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%2.1%2026-05-30 20:10