Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense v Flamengo

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 22:30 UTC

Final: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prediction 26.42%3.79fair odd
EV +4.08%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 3.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.60%26.45%26.49%28.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.453.9431.25%28.77%28.99%25.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Flamengo (Visit)

Prediction 44.35%2.25fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.496%
Kelly -0.900%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.99%44.29%44.27%45.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.102.102.2352.36%47.59%47.62%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.24%3.42fair odd
EV +0.870%
Edge +0.252%
Kelly +0.355%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.12%29.26%29.24%30.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.203.203.4536.36%31.30%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 26.42%; Flamengo (Visit): 44.35%; Draw: 29.24%. For Atletico Paranaense (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.94, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.94I 25.38%NM 24.60%EV +4.08%E +1.03%K +1.39%G +0.057%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.94%EV -6.43%E -3.05%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.46%EV -3.81%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-17 22:20
Pinnacle🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.79%EV -0.942%E -0.251%K -0.343%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.36%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.85%EV -5.27%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 22:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.72I 26.88%NM 25.59%EV -1.73%E -0.466%K -0.638%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.55%EV -7.32%E -3.50%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.52%E -1.07%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 22:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.72I 26.88%NM 25.59%EV -1.73%E -0.466%K -0.638%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.55%EV -7.32%E -3.50%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.52%E -1.07%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 22:00
BetUS🎯3.72I 26.88%NM 25.59%EV -1.73%E -0.466%K -0.638%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.55%EV -7.32%E -3.50%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.52%E -1.07%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 22:00
BetAnything🎯3.72I 26.88%NM 25.59%EV -1.73%E -0.466%K -0.638%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.55%EV -7.32%E -3.50%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.52%E -1.07%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 22:00
SportsBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -2.26%E -0.612%K -0.838%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 22:00
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -2.26%E -0.612%K -0.838%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 21:59
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.55%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.04%EV -3.77%E -1.74%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.41%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-17 22:09
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.09%EV -5.54%E -2.60%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 22:14
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 22:25
Bet Victor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 21:50
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 22:00
Everygame🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 22:10
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -9.09%E -4.43%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 21:15
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.09%E -4.43%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 22:20
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.09%E -4.43%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 22:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.09%E -4.43%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 22:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.09%E -4.43%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 22:20
Codere (IT)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -6.23%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.34%EV -5.54%E -2.60%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 21:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 26.49%EV -7.02%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.19%EV -6.43%E -3.05%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.32%EV -7.02%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 22:10
GTbets🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%EV -7.55%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.50%EV -1.55%E -0.698%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.91%EV -2.35%E -0.702%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-17 21:34
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.55%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 21:45
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.55%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 22:10
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -7.55%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -11.31%E -5.65%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 22:26
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.19%EV -8.87%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.62%EV -1.11%E -0.496%K -0.900%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.19%EV +0.870%E +0.252%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.8%2026-05-17 22:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.19%EV -8.87%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.62%EV -1.11%E -0.496%K -0.900%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.19%EV +0.870%E +0.252%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.8%2026-05-17 22:25
Bet Right🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -8.87%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-17 22:10
Betsson🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -8.87%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -5.98%E -2.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-17 22:15
NordicBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -8.87%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -5.98%E -2.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-17 22:20
BetRivers🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.19%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.71%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 22:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.19%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 22:10
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -10.19%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 22:10
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -10.19%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 22:15
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.19%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 22:10
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -10.19%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -11.31%E -5.65%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-17 22:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 24.90%EV -10.19%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.32%EV -15.30%E -8.01%K -16.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.78%EV -19.60%E -7.13%K -11.20%G +0.000%18.1%2026-05-17 22:06
Casumo🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -11.51%E -3.44%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.68%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -2.05%E -0.613%K -0.874%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -11.51%E -3.44%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.68%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -2.05%E -0.613%K -0.874%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 22:25
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -11.51%E -3.44%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.68%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -2.05%E -0.613%K -0.874%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 22:25
betPARX🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -11.51%E -3.44%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.68%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -2.05%E -0.613%K -0.874%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 22:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -11.51%E -3.44%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.68%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -2.05%E -0.613%K -0.874%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 22:25
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -11.51%E -3.44%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.68%EV -4.21%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -2.05%E -0.613%K -0.874%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 22:25
Winamax (DE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -11.51%E -3.44%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.09%E -4.43%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.13%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 21:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -11.51%E -3.44%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.60%EV -11.31%E -5.65%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-17 22:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -12.83%E -3.89%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -5.98%E -2.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -3.52%E -1.07%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 22:25
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.83%E -3.89%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-17 21:14
LeoVegas🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -14.15%E -4.35%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-17 22:25
PMU (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -14.15%E -4.35%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.67%EV -7.76%E -3.73%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 22:25
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -14.15%E -4.35%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.67%EV -7.76%E -3.73%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 22:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -14.15%E -4.35%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.32%EV -13.08%E -6.67%K -13.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.95%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-17 22:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -15.47%E -4.83%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.72%EV -8.65%E -4.20%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 22:26
Virgin Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -15.47%E -4.83%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.72%EV -8.65%E -4.20%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 22:25
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -15.47%E -4.83%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.05%EV -11.31%E -5.65%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-17 21:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-05-17 22:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-05-17 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-05-17 22:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-05-17 22:20
Smarkets3.95I 25.32%NM 24.94%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.20%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.86%1.5%2026-05-17 22:25
Kalshi3.70I 27.03%NM 25.99%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.14%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.87%4.0%2026-05-17 22:25