Language:English
Atletico Paranaense v Chapecoense
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atletico Paranaense (Local)
Prediction 63.75%1.57fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -7.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.22%63.63%63.77%64.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.461.461.5171.43%68.48%68.49%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Chapecoense (Visit)
Prediction 14.03%7.13fair odd
EV +1.87%
Edge +0.257%
Kelly +0.298%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 7.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.25%14.16%14.04%16.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.576.507.2618.52%15.23%15.38%13.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.22%4.50fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.505%
Kelly -0.653%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.25%22.21%22.20%24.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.174.204.4028.57%23.96%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 63.75%; Chapecoense (Visit): 14.03%; Draw: 22.22%. For Chapecoense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.13. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.87%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.52%EV -4.38%E -2.92%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 7.26I 13.77%NM 13.33%EV +1.87%E +0.257%K +0.298%G +0.006% | 4.37I 22.88%NM 22.15%EV -2.89%E -0.661%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.03%EV -5.02%E -3.37%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV +1.03%E +0.142%K +0.165%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 08:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.03%EV -5.02%E -3.37%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV +1.03%E +0.142%K +0.165%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 08:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.03%EV -5.02%E -3.37%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV +1.03%E +0.142%K +0.165%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 08:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.03%EV -5.02%E -3.37%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV +1.03%E +0.142%K +0.165%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 08:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.35%EV -5.02%E -3.37%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.50%EV -0.378%E -0.053%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.14%EV -3.78%E -0.872%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.64%EV -4.38%E -2.92%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -1.78%E -0.254%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -1.78%E -0.254%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -4.44%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 04:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.10%EV -6.29%E -4.28%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -1.78%E -0.254%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.43%EV -6.93%E -4.75%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -1.78%E -0.254%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-12 07:27 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.85%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.43%EV -1.78%E -0.254%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.72%EV -3.78%E -0.872%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-12 13:28 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -1.78%E -0.254%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.29%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.51%EV -3.18%E -0.461%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.82%EV -3.74%E -2.48%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.28%EV -5.29%E -0.784%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.90%EV -2.22%E -0.505%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.82%EV -3.74%E -2.48%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.28%EV -5.29%E -0.784%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.90%EV -2.22%E -0.505%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.10%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.77%EV -5.29%E -0.784%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.08%EV -6.29%E -4.28%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.74%EV -5.29%E -0.784%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.71%EV -5.99%E -0.894%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.78%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.52%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.70%EV -3.33%E -0.766%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-12 04:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.62%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -4.44%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.61%EV -6.29%E -4.28%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.95%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.10%EV -6.29%E -4.28%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.63%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.76%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 10:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 10:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 10:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 11:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 09:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -10.76%E -7.68%K -26.89%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.50%EV -6.29%E -4.28%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 6.49I 15.41%NM 14.38%EV -8.94%E -1.38%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.12%EV -6.22%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-12 07:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.32%EV -5.02%E -3.37%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.74%EV -10.20%E -1.59%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -4.44%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-12 13:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.63%EV -6.93%E -4.75%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -10.20%E -1.59%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.63%EV -6.93%E -4.75%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -10.20%E -1.59%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-12 13:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.94%EV -8.84%E -6.18%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.29%EV -10.20%E -1.59%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.60%EV -8.84%E -6.18%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%EV -10.20%E -1.59%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.60%EV -8.84%E -6.18%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%EV -10.20%E -1.59%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.71%EV -10.12%E -7.18%K -24.68%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.37%EV -12.30%E -1.97%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.71%EV -10.12%E -7.18%K -24.68%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.37%EV -12.30%E -1.97%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.66%EV -8.84%E -6.18%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -14.41%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -4.38%E -2.92%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -15.81%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-12 13:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.34%EV -9.48%E -6.68%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -15.81%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.67%EV -7.78%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -15.81%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -13.33%E -3.42%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-12 13:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 61.22%EV -10.76%E -7.68%K -26.89%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.29%EV -15.81%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.49%EV -22.22%E -6.35%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.00%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.75%EV -18.62%E -3.21%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -4.44%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-12 13:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.30%EV -10.12%E -7.18%K -24.68%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.27%EV -24.23%E -4.49%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.19% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.12% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.68% | 0.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.34% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.34% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.34% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.29% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.90% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.81% | 0.8% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.95% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.25% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.79% | 2.0% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |