La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Atletico Paranaense v Chapecoense
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Atletico Paranaense (Local)
Predicción 63.75%1.57momio equitativo
EV -3.74%
Ventaja -2.48%
Kelly -7.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.51
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.22%63.63%63.77%64.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.401.461.461.5171.43%68.48%68.49%66.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Chapecoense (Visitante)
Predicción 14.03%7.13momio equitativo
EV +1.87%
Ventaja +0.257%
Kelly +0.298%
Crecimiento +0.006%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.26
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.25%14.16%14.04%16.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.406.576.507.2618.52%15.23%15.38%13.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 22.22%4.50momio equitativo
EV -2.22%
Ventaja -0.505%
Kelly -0.653%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.25%22.21%22.20%24.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.504.174.204.4028.57%23.96%23.81%22.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.52%EV -4.38%E -2.92%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 7.26I 13.77%NM 13.33%EV +1.87%E +0.257%K +0.298%G +0.006% | 4.37I 22.88%NM 22.15%EV -2.89%E -0.661%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.03%EV -5.02%E -3.37%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV +1.03%E +0.142%K +0.165%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 08:55 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.03%EV -5.02%E -3.37%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV +1.03%E +0.142%K +0.165%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 08:55 |
| BetUS | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.03%EV -5.02%E -3.37%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV +1.03%E +0.142%K +0.165%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 08:54 |
| BetAnything | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.03%EV -5.02%E -3.37%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV +1.03%E +0.142%K +0.165%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 08:55 |
| 1xBet | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.35%EV -5.02%E -3.37%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.50%EV -0.378%E -0.053%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.14%EV -3.78%E -0.872%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Coolbet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.64%EV -4.38%E -2.92%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -1.78%E -0.254%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Fanatics | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -1.78%E -0.254%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -4.44%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 04:10 |
| SportsBet | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.10%EV -6.29%E -4.28%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -1.78%E -0.254%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Bovada | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.43%EV -6.93%E -4.75%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -1.78%E -0.254%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-12 07:27 |
| Bet Victor | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.85%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.43%EV -1.78%E -0.254%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.72%EV -3.78%E -0.872%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-12 13:28 |
| FanDuel | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -1.78%E -0.254%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.29%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.51%EV -3.18%E -0.461%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.82%EV -3.74%E -2.48%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.28%EV -5.29%E -0.784%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.90%EV -2.22%E -0.505%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.82%EV -3.74%E -2.48%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.28%EV -5.29%E -0.784%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.90%EV -2.22%E -0.505%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Everygame | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.10%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.77%EV -5.29%E -0.784%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.08%EV -6.29%E -4.28%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.74%EV -5.29%E -0.784%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.71%EV -5.99%E -0.894%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.78%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.52%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.70%EV -3.33%E -0.766%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-12 04:09 |
| DraftKings | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.62%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -4.44%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Unibet | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Grosvenor | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Casumo | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| betPARX | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| BetRivers | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.61%EV -6.29%E -4.28%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.95%EV -5.66%E -3.82%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Bet Right | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.10%EV -6.29%E -4.28%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.63%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| PlayUp | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.76%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| 888sport | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 10:20 |
| William Hill | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 10:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 10:20 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 11:00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 09:10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -10.76%E -7.68%K -26.89%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| GTbets | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.50%EV -6.29%E -4.28%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 6.49I 15.41%NM 14.38%EV -8.94%E -1.38%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.12%EV -6.22%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-12 07:54 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.32%EV -5.02%E -3.37%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.74%EV -10.20%E -1.59%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -4.44%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-12 13:29 |
| NordicBet | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.63%EV -6.93%E -4.75%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -10.20%E -1.59%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betsson | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.63%EV -6.93%E -4.75%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -10.20%E -1.59%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-12 13:29 |
| LeoVegas | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.94%EV -8.84%E -6.18%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.29%EV -10.20%E -1.59%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| TABtouch | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.60%EV -8.84%E -6.18%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%EV -10.20%E -1.59%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.60%EV -8.84%E -6.18%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%EV -10.20%E -1.59%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.71%EV -10.12%E -7.18%K -24.68%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.37%EV -12.30%E -1.97%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.71%EV -10.12%E -7.18%K -24.68%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.37%EV -12.30%E -1.97%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.66%EV -8.84%E -6.18%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -14.41%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betway | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -4.38%E -2.92%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -15.81%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -6.67%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-12 13:29 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.34%EV -9.48%E -6.68%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -15.81%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.67%EV -7.78%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Sky Bet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -8.21%E -5.70%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -15.81%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -13.33%E -3.42%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-12 13:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 61.22%EV -10.76%E -7.68%K -26.89%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.29%EV -15.81%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.49%EV -22.22%E -6.35%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.00%EV -7.57%E -5.22%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.75%EV -18.62%E -3.21%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -4.44%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-12 13:29 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.30%EV -10.12%E -7.18%K -24.68%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.27%EV -24.23%E -4.49%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.19% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.12% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.68% | 0.3% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.34% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.34% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.34% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Kalshi | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.29% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.90% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.81% | 0.8% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |
| Smarkets | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.95% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.25% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.79% | 2.0% | 2026-04-12 13:30 |