Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.85
assuming max odds 5.15
assuming max odds 3.69
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Mineiro (Local): 54.11%; Grêmio (Visit): 19.50%; Draw: 26.39%. For Grêmio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.13. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.410%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.91%EV -4.77%E -2.71%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.76%EV +0.410%E +0.080%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.33%EV -3.13%E -0.854%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-16 18:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.91%EV -4.77%E -2.71%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.76%EV +0.410%E +0.080%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.33%EV -3.13%E -0.854%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-16 18:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.91%EV -4.77%E -2.71%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.76%EV +0.410%E +0.080%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.33%EV -3.13%E -0.854%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-16 18:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.91%EV -4.77%E -2.71%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.76%EV +0.410%E +0.080%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.33%EV -3.13%E -0.854%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.78%EV -4.23%E -2.39%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 5.12I 19.53%NM 18.94%EV -0.175%E -0.034%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.28%EV -2.61%E -0.706%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -5.85%E -3.36%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.70%EV -0.565%E -0.111%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.69%EV -6.93%E -4.03%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -2.51%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -6.30%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -6.39%E -3.69%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -2.51%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.33%EV -8.56%E -5.06%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -2.51%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 18:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.63%EV -7.47%E -4.37%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -2.51%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 18:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.69%EV -3.69%E -2.07%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.15%EV -2.71%E -0.543%K -0.679%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.09%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 18:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.01%EV -9.64%E -5.77%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -4.46%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-16 18:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.18%EV -3.15%E -1.76%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.63%EV -5.44%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 18:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.47%E -4.37%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.22%EV -5.44%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -6.30%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.37%EV -5.85%E -3.36%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.92%EV -3.66%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 18:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.32%EV -6.39%E -3.69%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.32%EV -6.39%E -3.69%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-16 18:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.98%EV -5.85%E -3.36%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -6.30%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-16 18:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%EV -6.93%E -4.03%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -6.30%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.49%EV -12.88%E -8.00%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.90%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.64%EV -4.23%E -2.39%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -6.39%E -3.69%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -5.31%E -3.03%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 18:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.81%EV -6.39%E -3.69%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 18:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.39%EV -6.39%E -3.69%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.44%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.39%EV -6.39%E -3.69%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.44%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.39%EV -6.39%E -3.69%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.44%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.39%EV -6.39%E -3.69%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.44%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.27%EV -9.64%E -5.77%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.08%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.27%EV -9.64%E -5.77%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.08%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.52%EV -6.93%E -4.03%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.80%EV -9.34%E -2.01%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-16 18:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.52%EV -6.93%E -4.03%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.80%EV -9.34%E -2.01%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-16 18:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.38%EV +0.101%E +0.055%K +0.119%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.07%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.55%EV -3.66%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.38%EV +0.101%E +0.055%K +0.119%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.07%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.55%EV -3.66%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.77%EV -5.31%E -3.03%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 18:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.69%EV -10.18%E -6.13%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -6.30%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.93%EV -9.64%E -5.77%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-16 18:33 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%EV -4.23%E -2.39%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-16 18:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.70%EV -9.64%E -5.77%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 18:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.35%EV -11.26%E -6.87%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.81%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.84%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.27%EV -9.64%E -5.77%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.90%E -3.91%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.75%EV -4.77%E -2.71%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -6.30%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 18:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -5.31%E -3.03%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-16 18:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -2.60%E -1.45%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -15.19%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -2.60%E -1.45%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -15.19%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -2.60%E -1.45%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -15.19%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -2.60%E -1.45%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -15.19%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -2.60%E -1.45%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -15.19%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -2.60%E -1.45%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -15.19%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 18:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.39%E -3.69%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -15.58%E -3.60%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-16 18:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.42%EV -4.23%E -2.39%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV -17.14%E -4.03%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -11.58%E -3.46%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-16 18:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.43%EV -4.77%E -2.71%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -18.11%E -4.31%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.02%EV -11.58%E -3.46%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-16 18:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.57%EV -5.31%E -3.03%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49%EV -18.11%E -4.31%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -11.58%E -3.46%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-16 18:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.57%EV -5.31%E -3.03%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49%EV -18.11%E -4.31%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -11.58%E -3.46%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-16 18:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.53%EV -6.93%E -4.03%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -20.06%E -4.89%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.86%EV -12.90%E -3.91%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-16 18:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.53%EV -6.93%E -4.03%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -20.06%E -4.89%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.86%EV -12.90%E -3.91%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-16 18:39 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.60% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.61% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.79% | -0.5% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.15% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.38% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.15% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.38% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.15% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.38% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.28% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.33% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39% | 1.1% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.65% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.52% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.83% | 2.7% | 2026-08-16 18:30 |
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