Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gent v KV Mechelen

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 11:30 UTC

Final: Gent 2–0 KV Mechelen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gent (Local)

Prediction 49.20%2.03fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.799%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%49.25%49.43%51.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.891.912.0056.50%52.80%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KV Mechelen (Visit)

Prediction 23.79%4.20fair odd
EV +1.84%
Edge +0.430%
Kelly +0.562%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 4.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.25%23.74%23.73%25.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.873.854.2828.17%25.82%25.97%23.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.00%3.70fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -0.620%
Kelly -0.856%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.95%27.02%26.85%27.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.393.403.6231.75%29.51%29.41%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gent (Local): 49.20%; KV Mechelen (Visit): 23.79%; Draw: 27.00%. For KV Mechelen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.28%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.44%EV +1.84%E +0.430%K +0.562%G +0.010%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.94%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 11:25
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.35%EV -5.04%E -2.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.81%EV +1.37%E +0.321%K +0.419%G +0.006%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.84%EV -2.24%E -0.620%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-09 11:25
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.019%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 11:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.019%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.019%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.019%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:15
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.44%E -0.595%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 11:25
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.44%E -0.595%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 11:25
Suprabets🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.55%EV -8.98%E -4.85%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -2.44%E -0.595%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.64%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 11:23
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -2.44%E -0.595%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 11:24
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -2.44%E -0.595%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 11:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.82%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.82%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -11.44%E -6.35%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -4.82%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -12.24%E -3.76%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -8.98%E -4.85%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.42%EV -5.30%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.19%EV -3.86%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 11:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -1.60%E -0.799%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.01%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 11:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -1.60%E -0.799%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.01%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 11:25
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 11:25
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 11:24
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.83%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:25
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.48%EV -9.47%E -5.15%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -9.53%E -2.85%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 11:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -11.44%E -6.35%K -14.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 11:15
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -11.44%E -6.35%K -14.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 11:15
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.64%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -8.39%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.01%EV -3.07%E -1.56%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.57%EV -8.39%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -6.83%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.56%EV -5.04%E -2.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Casumo🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.95%EV -12.91%E -7.30%K -16.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 11:20
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.32%EV -12.91%E -7.30%K -16.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.97%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.71%EV -14.94%E -4.74%K -6.95%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-09 11:20
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -5.04%E -2.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -10.77%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 11:25
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -6.52%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.77%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:10
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -10.77%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 11:19
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -10.77%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 11:24
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.66%EV -6.52%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -11.96%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.86%EV -12.24%E -3.76%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -11.96%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:09
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.44%EV -5.53%E -2.88%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -13.15%E -3.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.44%EV -5.53%E -2.88%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -13.15%E -3.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 11:24
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.03%EV -7.01%E -3.71%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.87%EV -13.15%E -3.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -9.53%E -2.85%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.83%EV -8.49%E -4.56%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -14.34%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 11:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.47%EV -7.01%E -3.71%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -14.34%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -12.24%E -3.76%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.74%EV -9.47%E -5.15%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -15.53%E -4.37%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -6.83%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.37%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -15.53%E -4.37%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-09 11:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.37%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -15.53%E -4.37%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-09 11:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.37%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -15.53%E -4.37%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-09 11:25
BetUS🎯⚠ implausible3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV +91.88%E +23.56%K +31.68%G +29.11%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -54.55%E -28.56%K -59.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.83%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.99%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.98%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.02%0.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Matchbook1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Smarkets1.95I 51.28%NM 50.38%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29%1.8%2026-08-09 11:25