The School of Odds

Gent v KV Mechelen

2026-08-09 11:30 UTC — Belgium First Div

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Gent (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -43.67%
Kelly -77.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.67%0.00%0.00%44.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.972.092.052.2951%48%49%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

KV Mechelen (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -29.07%
Kelly -40.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.60%0.00%0.00%28.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.243.253.4432%31%31%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -29.41%
Kelly -41.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.69%0.00%0.00%30.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.133.4033%32%32%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.29I 43.67%NM 41.67%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.74%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.59%4.8%2026-07-14 18:18
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%9.1%2026-07-14 19:04
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%6.2%2026-07-14 18:18
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 44.22%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%10.3%2026-07-14 18:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.22%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%10.3%2026-07-14 18:19
SportsBet2.03I 49.26%NM 43.69%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.16%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.16%12.8%2026-07-14 18:15
Betclic (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 43.70%3.12I 32.05%NM 27.60%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.70%16.1%2026-07-14 18:28
Unibet (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 43.63%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.65%16.4%2026-07-14 18:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.00I 50.00%NM 42.98%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.18%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.84%16.3%2026-07-14 18:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-14 18:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-14 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-14 18:20