Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gent v KV Mechelen

Inicio: 2026-08-09 11:30 UTC

Final: Gent 2–0 KV Mechelen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gent (Local)

Predicción 49.20%2.03momio equitativo
EV -1.60%
Ventaja -0.799%
Kelly -1.60%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.37%49.25%49.43%51.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.771.891.912.0056.50%52.80%52.36%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

KV Mechelen (Visitante)

Predicción 23.79%4.20momio equitativo
EV +1.84%
Ventaja +0.430%
Kelly +0.562%
Crecimiento +0.010%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.25%23.74%23.73%25.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.553.873.854.2828.17%25.82%25.97%23.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.00%3.70momio equitativo
EV -2.24%
Ventaja -0.620%
Kelly -0.856%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.95%27.02%26.85%27.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.393.403.6231.75%29.51%29.41%27.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Gent (Local): 49.20%; KV Mechelen (Visitante): 23.79%; Empate: 27.00%. Para KV Mechelen (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.20. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.28, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.84%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.28%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.44%EV +1.84%E +0.430%K +0.562%G +0.010%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.94%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 11:25
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.35%EV -5.04%E -2.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.81%EV +1.37%E +0.321%K +0.419%G +0.006%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.84%EV -2.24%E -0.620%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-09 11:25
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.019%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 11:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.019%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.019%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.019%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:15
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.44%E -0.595%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 11:25
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.44%E -0.595%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 11:25
Suprabets🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.55%EV -8.98%E -4.85%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -2.44%E -0.595%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.64%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 11:23
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -2.44%E -0.595%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 11:24
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -2.44%E -0.595%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 11:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.82%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.82%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -11.44%E -6.35%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -4.82%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -12.24%E -3.76%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -8.98%E -4.85%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.42%EV -5.30%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.19%EV -3.86%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 11:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -1.60%E -0.799%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.01%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 11:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -1.60%E -0.799%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.01%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 11:25
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 11:25
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 11:24
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.83%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:25
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.48%EV -9.47%E -5.15%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -9.53%E -2.85%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 11:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -11.44%E -6.35%K -14.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 11:15
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -11.44%E -6.35%K -14.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 11:15
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.64%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -8.39%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.01%EV -3.07%E -1.56%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.57%EV -8.39%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -6.83%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.56%EV -5.04%E -2.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Casumo🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.95%EV -12.91%E -7.30%K -16.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 11:20
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.32%EV -12.91%E -7.30%K -16.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.97%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.71%EV -14.94%E -4.74%K -6.95%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-09 11:20
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -5.04%E -2.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -10.77%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 11:25
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -6.52%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.77%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:10
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -10.77%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 11:19
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -10.77%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 11:24
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.66%EV -6.52%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -11.96%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.86%EV -12.24%E -3.76%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -11.96%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:09
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.44%EV -5.53%E -2.88%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -13.15%E -3.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.44%EV -5.53%E -2.88%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -13.15%E -3.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 11:24
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.03%EV -7.01%E -3.71%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.87%EV -13.15%E -3.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -9.53%E -2.85%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.83%EV -8.49%E -4.56%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -14.34%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 11:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.47%EV -7.01%E -3.71%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -14.34%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -12.24%E -3.76%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.74%EV -9.47%E -5.15%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -15.53%E -4.37%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -6.83%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.37%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -15.53%E -4.37%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-09 11:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.37%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -15.53%E -4.37%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-09 11:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.37%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -15.53%E -4.37%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-09 11:25
BetUS🎯⚠ inverosímil3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV +91.88%E +23.56%K +31.68%G +29.11%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -54.55%E -28.56%K -59.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.83%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.99%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.98%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.02%0.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Matchbook1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Smarkets1.95I 51.28%NM 50.38%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29%1.8%2026-08-09 11:25