Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sturm Graz v LASK

2026-09-13 15:00 UTC — Austrian Football Bundesliga

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sturm Graz (Local)

Prediction 38.24%2.62fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -2.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.03%38.20%38.06%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.372.392.5045.87%42.19%41.84%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

LASK (Visit)

Prediction 35.93%2.78fair odd
EV -6.57%
Edge -2.53%
Kelly -4.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.75%35.91%36.05%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.512.502.6041.67%39.77%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.83%3.87fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.10%25.89%25.89%26.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.503.7030.30%28.69%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sturm Graz (Local): 38.24%; LASK (Visit): 35.93%; Draw: 25.83%. For Sturm Graz (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.62. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.50, with an expected value of -4.40%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 16:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.45%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 17:05
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 17:05
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -8.37%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -4.45%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 17:05
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.16%E -4.07%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 17:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.16%E -4.07%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 17:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.16%E -4.07%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 17:00
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.16%E -4.07%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 16:59
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -8.22%E -3.43%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.16%E -4.07%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 17:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -8.99%E -3.78%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -10.16%E -4.07%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -10.14%E -4.31%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 15:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.03%EV -10.90%E -4.68%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 15:20
Suprabets🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.17%EV -11.28%E -4.86%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 35.00%EV -9.09%E -3.59%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-30 16:29
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -12.05%E -5.24%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -11.96%E -4.88%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-30 17:05
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.66%EV -12.05%E -5.24%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.09%EV -13.76%E -5.73%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.25%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-30 17:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -13.96%E -6.20%K -11.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.86%EV -11.96%E -4.88%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-30 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.01%EV -15.87%E -7.21%K -13.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.76%EV -13.76%E -5.73%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.24%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-30 15:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 39.53%EV -16.64%E -7.63%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 34.75%EV -10.88%E -4.39%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.72%EV -13.49%E -4.03%K -5.74%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-30 15:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.