Language:English
Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melbourne Victory (Local)
Prediction 60.99%1.64fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -2.70%
Kelly -7.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.24%61.03%60.82%62.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.521.531.5770.92%65.96%65.36%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit)
Prediction 18.54%5.39fair odd
EV +6.62%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.092%
assuming max odds 5.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.57%18.48%18.73%20.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.195.155.7522.73%19.27%19.42%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.46%4.89fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.239%
Kelly -0.302%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.64%20.49%20.45%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.474.504.8327.78%22.37%22.22%20.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Victory (Local): 60.99%; Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit): 18.54%; Draw: 20.46%. For Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.39. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.62%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.26%EV -6.68%E -4.37%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV +6.62%E +1.15%K +1.39%G +0.092% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.38%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.27%EV +3.84%E +0.686%K +0.835%G +0.032% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.36%EV -2.79%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-05 04:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.38%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.27%EV +3.84%E +0.686%K +0.835%G +0.032% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.36%EV -2.79%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-05 04:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.30%EV -7.90%E -5.23%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV +3.84%E +0.686%K +0.835%G +0.032% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.30%EV -7.90%E -5.23%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV +3.84%E +0.686%K +0.835%G +0.032% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.16%EV -8.51%E -5.67%K -17.02%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.65%EV +3.84%E +0.686%K +0.835%G +0.032% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -9.95%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.32%EV -9.12%E -6.12%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV +3.84%E +0.686%K +0.835%G +0.032% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.95%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.32%EV -9.12%E -6.12%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV +3.84%E +0.686%K +0.835%G +0.032% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.95%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-05 04:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.32%EV -9.12%E -6.12%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV +3.84%E +0.686%K +0.835%G +0.032% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.95%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.32%EV -9.12%E -6.12%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV +3.84%E +0.686%K +0.835%G +0.032% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.95%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.32%EV -9.12%E -6.12%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV +3.84%E +0.686%K +0.835%G +0.032% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.95%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.32%EV -9.12%E -6.12%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV +3.84%E +0.686%K +0.835%G +0.032% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.95%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.32%EV -9.12%E -6.12%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV +3.84%E +0.686%K +0.835%G +0.032% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.95%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.49%EV -6.68%E -4.37%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV +1.99%E +0.362%K +0.442%G +0.009% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -2.79%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-05 04:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.49%EV -6.68%E -4.37%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV +1.99%E +0.362%K +0.442%G +0.009% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -2.79%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-05 04:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -8.51%E -5.67%K -17.02%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV +1.99%E +0.362%K +0.442%G +0.009% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -8.51%E -5.67%K -17.02%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV +1.99%E +0.362%K +0.442%G +0.009% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.58%EV -9.73%E -6.58%K -20.28%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV +1.99%E +0.362%K +0.442%G +0.009% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-05 04:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.12%EV -11.56%E -7.97%K -25.69%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.68%EV +0.134%E +0.025%K +0.031%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.20%EV -13.02%E -3.06%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.12%EV -11.56%E -7.97%K -25.69%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.68%EV +0.134%E +0.025%K +0.031%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.20%EV -13.02%E -3.06%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-05 04:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.31%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.99%EV -0.793%E -0.148%K -0.182%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.70%EV -4.84%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.45%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.34I 18.73%NM 18.07%EV -0.978%E -0.183%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 20.48%EV -3.61%E -0.767%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-05 04:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.33%EV -14.00%E -9.93%K -34.15%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.74%EV -2.65%E -0.504%K -0.623%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -14.05%E -3.34%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.07%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.26%EV -4.50%E -0.874%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.67%EV -6.88%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.38%EV -7.29%E -4.80%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.12%EV -4.50%E -0.874%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.50%EV -6.88%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-05 04:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.41%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV -7.28%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.41%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV -7.28%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.72%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -7.28%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-05 04:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.87%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -7.28%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.87%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -7.28%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 04:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -7.28%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 04:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -7.28%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 04:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.75%EV -6.68%E -4.37%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -7.28%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-05 04:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -6.68%E -4.37%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -7.28%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-05 04:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.24%EV -12.17%E -8.45%K -27.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.06%EV -7.28%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.70%EV -26.33%E -7.31%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-04-05 04:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.20%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.16%EV -8.21%E -1.66%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.64%EV -1.15%E -0.239%K -0.302%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -8.21%E -1.66%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.96%EV -8.93%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-05 04:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -8.21%E -1.66%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.96%EV -8.93%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-05 04:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.98%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.37%EV -10.99%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.98%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.37%EV -10.99%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-05 04:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.13%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.29%EV -10.99%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.81%EV -6.68%E -4.37%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -10.99%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-05 04:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.81%EV -6.68%E -4.37%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -10.99%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.81%EV -6.68%E -4.37%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -10.99%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.81%EV -6.68%E -4.37%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -10.99%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.72%EV -10.34%E -7.04%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.99%EV -12.85%E -2.73%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -9.95%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-05 04:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -8.51%E -5.67%K -17.02%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -14.70%E -3.20%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-05 04:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 60.85%EV -12.78%E -8.94%K -29.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.92%EV -14.70%E -3.20%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.24%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-04-05 04:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.50%EV -9.73%E -6.58%K -20.28%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.02%EV -18.41%E -4.18%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.48%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-04-05 04:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.62% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61% | 1.1% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.62% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61% | 1.1% | 2026-04-05 04:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.62% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61% | 1.1% | 2026-04-05 04:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.62% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61% | 1.1% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.49% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.63% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.88% | 1.9% | 2026-04-05 04:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.79% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.62% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.59% | 2.1% | 2026-04-05 04:45 |